Tracking the tropics - 2025

[Torch Tiger]

big 'un on the wild 18z gfs

[Torch Tiger]

obligatory la-la land Savannah hit on 18z gfs ...always one per year

[Torch Tiger]

lfg

[ROOSTA]

The "DO NOT LOOK" possible Fernand.
Still there after a couple of model runs. 
That is all. 

The eye has appeared on ERIN.

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

lfg

I dunno, the best lift is well below the DGZ.

Probably some shitty snow growth in that.

[Hoth]

Erin's a regular smoke show this morning. Impressive intensification overnight.

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Erin's a regular smoke show this morning. Impressive intensification overnight.

Rapid intensification of yore

Go to bed with a 1, wake up to a 4. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Where’s @ineedsnow?

[drstuess]

Pretty impressive. Looks like 155 mph from recon. Still seems to be intensifying quickly. Some big pressure drops between passes.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

[CoastalWx]

Yeah biggun 

[ineedsnow]

57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Where’s @ineedsnow?

Working lol I think models shift around a bit later on.. already 30 miles south of the forecast track and still heading west

[Damage In Tolland]

39 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Working lol I think models shift around a bit later on.. already 30 miles south of the forecast track and still heading west

Due north.. right up your fanny?

[weatherwiz]

Wasn’t it still 100 at 5 AM? Holy shit

nevermind…it was 120. I didn’t hit refresh from 6z

[CoastalWx]

29 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Working lol I think models shift around a bit later on.. already 30 miles south of the forecast track and still heading west

They aren’t shifting. Enjoy the recurve, it’s the only recurve you got.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah definitely one to watch. 
 

 

[Torch Tiger]

it's  funny but also sad

[ROOSTA]

GR2Analyst (PR site) shows the EYE moving due W.
Awesome, that's crazy how rapidly it intensified.
Pressure will bottom out, how low? Slowdown and then turn to the North.
CAT5 is definitely possible.   

[Sey-Mour Snow]

26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Wasn’t it still 100 at 5 AM? Holy shit

nevermind…it was 120. I didn’t hit refresh from 6z

75 mph gain in 15 hours 

[weatherwiz]

With nothing to draw this to the coast and now with the RI…this will probably start to recurve even more quickly

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

75 mph gain in 15 hours 

Insane. Another trend of RI…almost have to expect with with any storm now. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

75 mph gain in 15 hours 

Edit 70*

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

With nothing to draw this to the coast and now with the RI…this will probably start to recurve even more quickly

It’s still pulling pretty far south.. it will definitely curve but this has bigger implications for PR Antilles today with heavier rain and wind , then possibly SE Bahamas and Turks will get in on sustained Tropical Storm conditions for longer now.  Also the cruise lines around the Bahamas holding out hope better reroute now don’t want to be on the open waters around the Bahamas Sunday through Tuesday. 

[metagraphica]

Very photogenic fishfood...

[Hoth]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Rapid intensification of yore

Go to bed with a 1, wake up to a 4. 

Lol, in my experience it's usually the other way around.

[ROOSTA]

Insane... imagine if the curve N never takes place and a WNW track continues. 
Get your sharpie out.
It would change model reliance forever. Kinetic Energy FTW.  

[weatherwiz]

30 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It’s still pulling pretty far south.. it will definitely curve but this has bigger implications for PR Antilles today with heavier rain and wind , then possibly SE Bahamas and Turks will get in on sustained Tropical Storm conditions for longer now.  Also the cruise lines around the Bahamas holding out hope better reroute now don’t want to be on the open waters around the Bahamas Sunday through Tuesday. 

A friend is scheduled to go on a cruise to  Bermuda later this week. Going to be close