Tracking the tropics - 2025

[jbenedet]

Seeing the NAO is shifting from postive to deeply negative over the next 7 days. Looks like trending towards an east-based -NAO... That will shake the forecast track up for sure...

 

[jbenedet]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah RIP Erin.

If Erin starts to organize and try to strengthening its just going to begin ingesting this air deeper into the circulation. Not too mention Erin is still hauling westwards

REALLY dry air, is also REALLY dense air...And that's also observed in a data sparse region so we might want to take the over on how strong that ridge is...

Better bet due to both influences--weaker TC, and stronger high--you want to hedge strongly in favor of a track further west and south at least to the bahamas...

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

REALLY dry air, is also REALLY dense air...And that's also observed in a data sparse region so we might want to take the over on how strong that ridge is...

Better bet due to both influences--weaker TC, and stronger high--you want to hedge strongly in favor of a track further west and south and least to the bahamas...

I still think this very well could track west of Bermuda, especially given Erin is remaining weaker and continuing to track on the southern envelope on guidance which feasibly means tracking farther west prior to re-curving. But the end game is still going to re-curve and still far enough away from the EC for the only impact to be high surf. Maybe Cape Hatteras gets scrapped with cirrus.

But all summer, we have seen some impressive shortwaves tracking across eastern Canada and getting across southeastern Canada at times. The ridge may be stronger, but if anything its stronger in the poleward direction versus being more of a E-W expansive high. There are a series of shortwaves which will be diving through over the next week which will continue impacting the WAR and allowing for weaknesses. Maybe this gets to 75W but even if so, the end game will be a sharp recurve.  

[Sey-Mour Snow]

New track at 11am shifted SW a bit which just matters for Bahamas and anyone vacationing around there (following closely for 2 groups of friends I have going on cruises this weekend to Bahamas and Bermuda). Erin is forecast to intensify into a hurricane tomorrow night or Friday with a period of rapid intensification possible. 

[jbenedet]

On 8/10/2025 at 1:56 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Problem is the same stalled front is also the kicker.

In my mind, the simplest setup is a tropical wave developing closer to the Antilles, getting pushed into hugging the Bahamas or moving just NE of there by a ridge, and getting captured. 

Again, CVs are exceptionally tricky. That's a lot of expanse to cross without getting recurved.

It's easy to forget, but 1938 had a "high latitude" track...but ended up near the Bahamas. 90% of this subforum would be cancelling looking at how far north of the islands that track is. 

1938

 

Bob

 

Gloria

Donna

Carol

1944

 

@Quincy wrote about this years ago and it's still just as useful. 

Great post^

I'm just gonna put this one here, because that mean track is being pretty well followed per the latest NHC cone....

 

We watch.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I know that’s true…but my production the last decade makes it harder than ever to discern. I checked this morning and I have more sub 20” seasons than I do 30” seasons since 2018-19, and my average is 45-50”. I certainly have more failed epic winter patterns than failed fantasy canes. It’s exceptionally tough sledding for anything interesting lately. Tropical stuff aside I think most of us are frustrated by that. 

I have my annual peak season forecast due by the 20th, and I’m still not sure what direction I’ll take. I do think we’re looking at another backloaded season though given the continued SAL/stability issues I knew we’d have months ago.

If September is warm with a WAR, we’re in the game. Otherwise, cutoff trough season in October and hybrids are probably our only shot at anything interesting. 

So doesn't Miami...what is the value of that perfunctory assessment? The volume disparity makes it silly to compare. When you put things into respective regarding how anomalous the prior decade was in the opposite direction, the current drought is still largely regression attibutable. I know my 10 year average just slipped blow normal this past year....but frustrating, nonetheless.

[Typhoon Tip]

If the ridge ends up more defined than current guidance vision creating a weakness to draw it N ... a weaker formed Erin could then get left behind - it's lower probability for the time being, but not impossible.

[WxWatcher007]

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So doesn't Miami...what is the value of that perfunctory assessment? The volume disparity makes it silly to compare. When you put things into respective regarding how anomalous the prior decade was in the opposite direction, the current drought is still largely regression attibutable. I know my 10 year average just slipped blow normal this past year....but frustrating, nonetheless.

Haha that line was 100% frustration from looking at my seasonal snow total this morning. It is regression and I do agree that in general winter produces most here looking at the longer arc of time. Doesn’t change the pain of losing nearly a decade to some historically bad winters. That’s time you don’t get back. 

[ineedsnow]

[ROOSTA]

Now know the ICON is not a tropical model 

Ensembles are all in agreement. A swing and miss...no extra innings for this baby!
NEXT

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Surprised no mention of the massive shift west on Euro. Close to a Hatteras hit before curving out to sea. 

[CoastalWx]

That’s my worst case scenario. Breezy and a few showers on the Cape.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

That’s my worst case scenario. Breezy and a few showers on the Cape.

Are you vacationing there next week? 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Are you vacationing there next week? 

Nope. Week after actually. 

[CoastalWx]

Just saying I think that’s the extent of impacts.

[weatherwiz]

noticing alot of models start to crank Erin around Puerto Rico but are environmental conditions really going to favor that? Dry air/SAL I think is still going to be an issue and may even have some stronger shear to the north? 

[kdxken]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nope. Week after actually. 

Hopefully they'll have the power restored.

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Surprised no mention of the massive shift west on Euro. Close to a Hatteras hit beige curving out to sea. 

Hopefully it rides north in future days

[weatherwiz]

I will be willing to bet the euro OP is of the most western outlier when it comes to the EPS. but I will be curious to see what the mean is on the Euro. We may see some heavily skewed west members but willing to bet this is a major outlier

[WxWatcher007]

23 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Surprised no mention of the massive shift west on Euro. Close to a Hatteras hit beige curving out to sea. 

I'm just chewing on that run. I want to see some ensemble support. 

That said, you can see how quickly things go from well OTS (Newfoundland exception) to a very close approach with changes in the pattern over the US and Canada. The big ULL doesn't drop down as aggressively, the retrograding ridge over the US kind of meanders, and that allows the Atlantic ridge to push the door a little more. 

00z

 

12z

 

Now of course, because there's no cutoff in the GL region this eventually gets kicked, but that was modestly intriguing. 

16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

noticing alot of models start to crank Erin around Puerto Rico but are environmental conditions really going to favor that? Dry air/SAL I think is still going to be an issue and may even have some stronger shear to the north? 

SHIPS does foresee a better environment further west, and the organization of Erin is pretty good for its current intensity. I think it could really pop once it's able to get enough of a convective burst to get the engine going. That said, convection continues to fire on the southern side of the storm and the track continues to come in ever so slightly south of forecast. 

 

I still think a NE impact is fantasy land, but the door for a closer approach is not fully closed. Honestly, and this is also forever out, Erin could be good for a PRE somewhere depending on how that trough eventually evolves. Just food for thought. Also, this looks like a possible threat to Newfoundland. Been saying that for days now lol. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I'm just chewing on that run. I want to see some ensemble support. 

That said, you can see how quickly things go from well OTS (Newfoundland exception) to a very close approach with changes in the pattern over the US and Canada. The big ULL doesn't drop down as aggressively, the retrograding ridge over the US kind of meanders, and that allows the Atlantic ridge to push the door a little more. 

00z

 

12z

 

Now of course, because there's no cutoff in the GL region this eventually gets kicked, but that was modestly intriguing. 

SHIPS does foresee a better environment further west, and the organization of Erin is pretty good for its current intensity. I think it could really pop once it's able to get enough of a convective burst to get the engine going. That said, convection continues to fire on the southern side of the storm and the track continues to come in ever so slightly south of forecast. 

 

I still think a NE impact is fantasy land, but the door for a closer approach is not fully closed. Honestly, and this is also forever out, Erin could be good for a PRE somewhere depending on how that trough eventually evolves. Just food for thought. Also, this looks like a possible threat to Newfoundland. Been saying that for days now lol. 

I agree, if Erin can get going...she will take off. 

[ineedsnow]

we watch!

[ineedsnow]

21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I'm just chewing on that run. I want to see some ensemble support. 

That said, you can see how quickly things go from well OTS (Newfoundland exception) to a very close approach with changes in the pattern over the US and Canada. The big ULL doesn't drop down as aggressively, the retrograding ridge over the US kind of meanders, and that allows the Atlantic ridge to push the door a little more. 

00z

 

12z

 

Now of course, because there's no cutoff in the GL region this eventually gets kicked, but that was modestly intriguing. 

SHIPS does foresee a better environment further west, and the organization of Erin is pretty good for its current intensity. I think it could really pop once it's able to get enough of a convective burst to get the engine going. That said, convection continues to fire on the southern side of the storm and the track continues to come in ever so slightly south of forecast. 

 

I still think a NE impact is fantasy land, but the door for a closer approach is not fully closed. Honestly, and this is also forever out, Erin could be good for a PRE somewhere depending on how that trough eventually evolves. Just food for thought. Also, this looks like a possible threat to Newfoundland. Been saying that for days now lol. 

some models were trying to show a cutoff.. I guess we wait and see how this plays out but I'm liking the trends

[weatherwiz]

OP is an outlier AWT...but the spread is insane 

[WxWatcher007]

32 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

some models were trying to show a cutoff.. I guess we wait and see how this plays out but I'm liking the trends

Well, it's still an outlier. For a closer approach you absolutely need the big ULL in Canada to back off. I don't think that's impossible. The cutoff in the GL region is a whole different level of complexity however imo. This still looks like a very very low chance for us, with meaningful risk in NF. I guess it's still worth a casual eye lol. 

25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

OP is an outlier AWT...but the spread is insane 

Yeah...I'm not sure how that'll play out over time. 

[ineedsnow]

being a week plus out we watch

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Well, it's still an outlier. For a closer approach you absolutely need the big ULL in Canada to back off. I don't think that's impossible. The cutoff in the GL region is a whole different level of complexity however imo. This still looks like a very very low chance for us, with meaningful risk in NF. I guess it's still worth a casual eye lol. 

Yeah...I'm not sure how that'll play out over time. 

Just going to have to wait for Erin to begin strengthening...but I am still curious if once that happens it will end up ingesting more of this SAL. I think one saving grace for Erin right now is because it isn't overly strong and wrapped its not getting t, much, if any into the center. But its been doing much better with convection today, not a terrible looking structure but getting there. 

[weatherwiz]

The farther west the track, the sharper the recurve 

[Cyclone-68]

Just please God don’t give this one to Canada again. 

[Hoth]

21 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Just please God don’t give this one to Canada again. 

We need to tariff Canadian ‘canes.