Tropical Storm Erin - NOW AT 45 KTS @ 18Z!

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I lost my mind with Edouard....I was a HS kid and didn't know any better. I was so excited and ended up absolutely despondent.

In fairness, it was a pretty good hit for ACK. 90mph gust iirc

[NorthHillsWx]

44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Let’s just add the entire western basin into the cone…

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

In fairness, it was a pretty good hit for ACK. 90mph gust iirc

In fairness, that isn't too rare in major nor' easters. It wasn't a huge deal.

[olafminesaw]

I knew climo favored a recurve, but my goodness...

[wthrmn654]

[wthrmn654]

Interesting to see the euro AI model keep shifting west past few runs.  No idea what it is seeing though.

 

Hitting the east coast. 

[wthrmn654]

Of oddity, the euro AI and the icon have nearly identical low placement at 00z thursday hour 180...

How did AI models do last hurricane season? ? 

[olafminesaw]

The GFS is trending a bit towards a trough capture. Certainly too late for a New England landfall, but brings Atlantic Canada back into the conversation 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The GFS is trending a bit towards a trough capture. Certainly too late for a New England landfall, but brings Atlantic Canada back into the conversation 

Newfoundland in particular. They’ve been getting either glancing blows or direct hits sporadically on the op Euro and GFS.

[GaWx]

12Z Euro: it doesn’t recurve til 75W and thus comes within 150 miles of NC! The OB are directly affected by its NW side. Gary Slezak, is that you?

[wthrmn654]

And that would be similar to the euro ai and icon solution.

[olafminesaw]

24 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z Euro: it doesn’t recurve til 75W and thus comes within 150 miles of NC! The OB are directly affected by its NW side. Gary Slezak, is that you?

Big shift West on the EPS as well

[TriPol]

Come on Erin, you can do this! We’re in another drought up here in the northeast and it’s almost the 30th anniversary of Hurricane Gloria!

[TriPol]

Just now, TriPol said:

Come on Erin, you can do this! We’re in another drought up here in the northeast and it’s almost the 30th anniversary of Hurricane Gloria!

Err…40th. God I’m getting old.

[BarryStantonGBP]

AL, 05, 2025081318, , BEST, 0, 163N, 443W, 45, 1002, TS

[BarryStantonGBP]

COME ON ERIN

 BAM BAM BAM

[Chinook]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Big shift West on the EPS as well

To follow up on that, here's the measurement tool (shift+drag mouse) to see this ECMWF average is approximately 250 naut. miles west of Bermuda

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

12Z Euro: it doesn’t recurve til 75W and thus comes within 150 miles of NC! The OB are directly affected by its NW side. Gary Slezak, is that you?

Exactly as modeled that would cause some serious coastal damage on the outer banks. Wash overs and severe beach erosion. And to a lesser extent all the way to New England from swell action. I’ll pass on Erin getting that closer as the circulation would be close enough to effect local winds here on Long Island ruining the big surf for surfing. 

[Big Jims Videos]

New Moon next Saturday won't help things. Certainly 7'+ swells up my way from a storm between the coast and Bermuda are possible. 

[GaWx]

 From elsewhere: all progging majors 

12z, August 13, hurricane model blend, Erin

--- Model peak intensity ---
HWRF = 944mb/117kt
HMON = 952mb/115kt
HAFS-A = 932mb/126kt
HAFS-B = 928mb/127kt

[WxWatcher007]

Still think there’s a very long way to go before thinking this is a bona fide US threat with a lot that needs to change but you can see the current changes looking at the last four EPS runs in the steering pattern. I don’t think today’s runs are enough to say there’s a trend. If 00z is similar, then maybe. 
 

[WxFreak11]

 From elsewhere: all progging majors 
12z, August 13, hurricane model blend, Erin

--- Model peak intensity ---
HWRF = 944mb/117kt
HMON = 952mb/115kt
HAFS-A = 932mb/126kt
HAFS-B = 928mb/127kt

.

[jconsor]

Tropical Storm #Erin continues trucking west and is showing signs of life after nearly two days of struggling. While a weakness in the western Atlantic ridge is a given, how quickly the ridge rebounds and what role an eastern US trough play could lead to some longer-term track intrigue. In-depth analysis and a parody of a 1970s R&B classic here: https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/losin-latitude

[wthrmn654]

5 minutes ago, jconsor said:

Tropical Storm #Erin continues trucking west and is showing signs of life after nearly two days of struggling. While a weakness in the western Atlantic ridge is a given, how quickly the ridge rebounds and what role an eastern US trough play could lead to some longer-term track intrigue. In-depth analysis and a parody of a 1970s R&B classic here: https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/losin-latitude

Good read there if that trough weakens is game on! 

[wthrmn654]

[wthrmn654]

[wthrmn654]

[WxWatcher007]

As the NHC noted at 5pm, there is a lot of spread in the longer range. Note that even though these are relatively close to the coast, the overwhelming majority of members completely miss the east coast. The risk doesn't lie in if the current "forecast" holds, it lies in if there is a trend toward weakening the Canadian troughing and restrengthening the Atlantic ridge. 

 

[wthrmn654]

Ma that ai euro model hasn't budge once but for 5 or 6 models runs with the more recent ones further west.  Super consistent.  Wrong or right well see. 

[Windspeed]

We may have our first hurricane of the season on Thursday. Impressive bursting continues despite the slightly tilted vortex. Erin may be developing an eyewall, at least around the western and southern semicircle of the VM.