Hurricane Erin: 130 MPH - 942mb - NW @ 12

[BarryStantonGBP]

8 minutes ago, baldereagle said:

Yo mate, I logged on just to advise you that over time, your commentary, taken as a whole, visits damage to otherwise interesting observation threads. I'll refrain from speculation on what "GBP" means.

Have a quiet day.

Great British pound. Now have a brew and a Jaffa cake while I track Erin 

[wthrmn654]

4 hours ago, bugalou said:

twitter

Is there a source link for that? Any idea if that's on some website somewhere? Any info greatly appreciated!  

[wthrmn654]

 

Looking thru the various sites i have,  looking at the uAlbany site  for the euro,gfs, cmc ensembles,  the 06z forecast is only goes to,  it's showing the 12z storm actual plot, the storm is south of all 3 of those models forecast...

 

Here are 2 storm verification charts  both are for location i do believe. 

[WxWatcher007]

3 hours ago, jconsor said:

Thanks man!  Appreciate the encouragement and positive feedback.  I expect to post an update today.

Haven’t had a chance to take a look yet, but I appreciate your stuff. 

[wthrmn654]

[jconsor]

Erin continues to remain on the southern side of forecast spread today, but that may not matter much for possible impacts from NC to SE New England. Will Erin re-intensify now that her eyewall replacement cycle is done?

Starting to make about half of my posts paid this week, so I encourage all of you tropical freaks to subscribe and support my work so you can see all of my hurricane-related posts.

https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/systematic-bias

[Windspeed]

OI
RECKON EKIN WILL SCORE ANOTHER CAT 5 GOAL? got a mate watching her live in the love island villa he crashed while I’m pissed from last night in Pacha
Disappointed she’s a category 3 but oh well steaming hot water ahead and low shear now that she’s fixing her eyewall after a trip to specsavers
 

 

Though I do think Erin's core will complete organizing a new dominate and large eyewall at some point in the next few days, I think the RMW will have spread out too much for Erin to become a Category 5 again. When we have fast smooth transitions between EWRCs in the highest end TCs, the handoff of the windfield to new eyewall can allow the new eyewall to keep the RMW still somewhat compact or at least recontract it. Therefore, if the new eyewall remains with intense convection, the resultant pressure plunge can allow the TC to reapproach or even surpass its former peak. But the atmospheric and thermal environment has to remain prestinely favorable. We saw this with Irma through several EWRCs, Ian also comes to mind, among others, as Atlantic examples. Certainly, plenty of WPAC typhoons have reintensified dramatically after EWRCs. But in Erin's case, though it should get its act together and may reintensify some, it will likely run out of time to contract its RMW too much regardless of a dominate eyewall due to increasing shear on Monday through Wednesday. I could see it reaching Category 4 again, maybe, but I seriously doubt it could pull off Category 5 again. So, to answer your question,

No Sir...

[canderson]

The continuous S/W track makes me think Erin has eyes wanting to split the upright and run head first into Newfoundland.  

[Wannabehippie]

2:00 PM AST Sun Aug 17
Location: 21.3°N 68.0°W
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 946 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Though I do think Erin's core will complete organizing a new dominate and large eyewall at some point in the next few days, I think the RMW will have spread out too much for Erin to become a Category 5 again. When we have fast smooth transitions between EWRCs in the highest end TCs, the handoff of the windfield to new eyewall can allow the new eyewall to keep the RMW still somewhat compact or at least recontract it. Therefore, if the new eyewall remains with intense convection, the resultant pressure plunge can allow the TC to reapproach or even surpass its former peak. But the atmospheric and thermal environment has to remain prestinely favorable. We saw this with Irma through several EWRCs, Ian also comes to mind, among others, as Atlantic examples. Certainly, plenty of WPAC typhoons have reintensified dramatically after EWRCs. But in Erin's case, though it should get its act together and may reintensify some, it will likely run out of time to contract its RMW too much regardless of a dominate eyewall due to increasing shear on Monday through Wednesday. I could see it reaching Category 4 again, maybe, but I seriously doubt it could pull off Category 5 again. So, to answer your question,

No Sir...
 

Excellent post. Erin is really struggling to reorganize after the EWRC. Personally I think it may be down sloping same dry air off the mountains of Hispaniola. The sw quadrant seems to be the issue currently. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[Wannabehippie]

No changes on the latest advisory.

5:00 PM AST Sun Aug 17
Location: 21.7°N 68.5°W
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 946 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph
 

[wthrmn654]

[BooneWX]

Looks like it’s completing the EWRC. The center is warming quickly on IR.

[Wannabehippie]

Is it just me or is there some shear going on in the NW quadrant?

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05L&product=ir

[GaWx]

 Erin’s ACE is already up to 14 with lots more potential to add. With 3 more days of MH status being forecasted followed by two days of cat 2-1, a total ACE of 35 for Erin, alone, is doable!

 If Erin gets to 35, the season total would be ~39, which likely would get 2025 at least into the top 15 since 1951 as of August 22nd.

[Floydbuster]

 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[Wannabehippie]

Looks like Erin is trying to clear out a large eye.

[wthrmn654]

 

[wthrmn654]

Af307 stated and now stopped mission must of have breakdown

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

That’s going to be upper echelon in terms of size of maximum winds. Anyone know if there are records for eye sizes of majors? I know Wilma in Florida had a huge one and Ike as well. 

[wthrmn654]

big eye now

[nvck]

Eye really clearing out over the last hour or so

[cptcatz]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s going to be upper echelon in terms of size of maximum winds. Anyone know if there are records for eye sizes of majors? I know Wilma in Florida had a huge one and Ike as well. 

Frances had an eye 80 miles wide. Not sure how that compares to others but it's gotta be one of the biggest

[wthrmn654]

00z models run and again the nhc track is to far east jeez. 

[wthrmn654]

Didn't realize the nhc was using Google products 

This track lies roughly in between the Google Deep Mind 
ensemble mean (GDMI) and HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA).

[Chinook]

Does Levi from Tropical Tidbits even care about Youtube anymore?

[Windspeed]

NHC upgraded Erin back to Category 4, 115 KTs/130 MPH for the 11PM AST package, though that may have been just a tad generous. Recon just sampled 119 KT at flight level in the NE quadrant and 948 mb minimum pressure. However, Erin does appear to be getting its act together tonight and near a period of intensification soon regardless. Of note, they report that the eye is closed at 30NM diameter. Erin is a large hurricane now and has a window to contract its RMW. So, the forecast for a higher end Category 4 isn't unreasonable through early Tuesday prior to stronger shear values encroaching on the circulation.

[Floydbuster]

Just now, Windspeed said:

NHC upgraded Erin back to Category 4, 115 KTs/130 MPH for the 11PM AST package, though that may have been just a tad generous. Recon just sampled 119 KT at flight level in the NE quadrant and 948 mb minimum pressure. However, Erin does appear to be getting its act together tonight and near a period of intensification soon. Of note, they report that the eye is closed at 30NM diameter. Erin is a large hurricane now and has a window to contract its RMW. So, the forecast for a higher end Category 4 isn't unreasonable through early Tuesday prior to stronger shear values encroaching on the circulation.

No doubt this is going to be a massive Category 4 hurricane in the next two days, likely similar in looks and size to Hurricane Floyd 1999.