Hurricane Erin: 105 MPH - 958 mb - NNW @ 10

[WEATHER53]

It’s a new moon on 22nd and when tides are agitated, that usually enhances them .

[NorthHillsWx]

33 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The core was essentially completely destroyed. Will be a little surprising to see it rebuild, but that convection is really impressive so we'll see.

That is a gutted storm right there. Nothing really showed that happening 

[BooneWX]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That is a gutted storm right there. Nothing really showed that happening 

Particularly impressive given its size. 

[Wannabehippie]

2:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 19
Location: 26.1°N 72.5°W
Moving: NNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 958 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

[Wannabehippie]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_intensity_latest.png
 

[wthrmn654]

18z models looking north and west. Nhc track again to far east. 

[Wannabehippie]

14 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

18z models looking north and west. Nhc track again to far east. 

Right now Erin is moving NNW, so the GFS model might not be picking up on that.

No current flights in to Erin, but last flight, had a higher pressure that the last NHC report.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF308-2005A-ERIN.png

[eyewall]

Erin is definitely a lot healthier looking than earlier today. There may be an attempt at rebuilding the core now:
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2025_05L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_09.html

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Erin is definitely a lot healthier looking than earlier today. There may be an attempt at rebuilding the core now:
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2025_05L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_09.html

This apparent restrengthening is as predicted by the Euro, UKMET, Icon and possibly others.

[NorthHillsWx]

32 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Erin is definitely a lot healthier looking than earlier today. There may be an attempt at rebuilding the core now:
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2025_05L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_09.html

I think it’s earlier collapse was much more drastic than anyone expected but given improving shear and very high ocean temps over its path the next few days I believe it recovers back to a healthy 2. I am convinced it weakened to a 1 this morning so I’d consider reaching its operational intensity as restrengthening lol

[Wannabehippie]

5:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 19
Location: 26.6°N 72.7°W
Moving: NNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 958 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

No change in intensity since the 2pm advisory.

[wthrmn654]

59 minutes ago, GaWx said:

This apparent restrengthening is as predicted by the Euro, UKMET, Icon and possibly others.

Those have it taking a more west track too.... not being a broken pattern but icon has been unbelievably consistent and euro ai too

[wthrmn654]

Should be noted,  there are models showing it strengthening a bit more now, i think more then before...

[wthrmn654]

Here's the entire nhc track from the very beginning,  it is clear as day they have been correcting west from the very beginning. 

[wthrmn654]

[wthrmn654]

Some incredibly warm water near Erin right now, about 80 miles away from this buoy!