CAPE Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 2 hours ago, kgottwald said: Never mind the back-and-forth, I'm just thoroughly tired of the 70+ dewpoints, which according to the AFD won't be decreased by the upcoming "cold" fronts. Can't wait for the cooling trend. Early next week the dewpoints will still be on the higher side due to the flow around Erin as it passes off the coast. Also depends on how close it tracks to the coast- Euro has it a bit closer. Mid to late week when winds shift to the N/NE on the backside drier air will work in. Looks like dewpoints may drop into the 50s to low 60s. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Not that late summer/early fall cold shots are always indicative of an incoming cold winter, I'd bet my retirement that most warm winters lack them. So decreasing the chance of a warm winter is always a step in the right direction at this point of the year imho. September 2017 had an early cold shot, only to have the equinox have a high in the 90s. That following winter had an 80 degree day in February. At the time it was the earliest 80 on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 2 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said: September 2017 had an early cold shot, only to have the equinox have a high in the 90s. That following winter had an 80 degree day in February. At the time it was the earliest 80 on record. That's why I said "most." It’s never wall to wall cold early in the season or all through a cold winter. Even 1/96 had a heck of a warm spell. But I'm not even suggesting it will be a cold winter or that you need early cool shots for a cold winter. My point was more to suggest we may be able to lower the odds the cr@p, warm winters in light of the early season cool shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 5 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said: September 2017 had an early cold shot, only to have the equinox have a high in the 90s. That following winter had an 80 degree day in February. At the time it was the earliest 80 on record. Without digging into it, I would guess there probably isn't much of a correlation between early Fall cool periods and the overall upcoming winter pattern. It's just too soon for the character of winter to show its hand, for many reasons. Maybe @psuhoffmancan shed some light on this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 Early cold shots have absolutely no clue to the following winter......................... This is something that has been demonstrated many times. If anyone wants a clue, come back about Thanksgiving. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 Probably looking high temps upper 70s to low 80s with reasonable dewpoints if this verifies. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Without digging into it, I would guess there probably isn't much of a correlation between early Fall cool periods and the overall upcoming winter pattern. It's just too soon for the character of winter to show its hand, for many reasons. Maybe @psuhoffmancan shed some light on this. Lol you said maybe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgottwald Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 >Probably looking high temps upper 70s to low 80s with reasonable dewpoints if this verifies. It had better. To hell with this humidity. To hell with every damn summer being longer and muggier than the last. I want things to go back to normal, and by normal I mean the mild summers of the early sixties. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 17 hours ago, CAPE said: Without digging into it, I would guess there probably isn't much of a correlation between early Fall cool periods and the overall upcoming winter pattern. It's just too soon for the character of winter to show its hand, for many reasons. Maybe @psuhoffmancan shed some light on this. Problem is some of the same large scale forcing that causes cold now can cause an opposite reaction mid winter. That’s why snowfall in October has no correlation with a snowy winter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 Okay it's one op run at the very end of its range, with no real agreement with its ensembles... but since it shows this, it'll probably come true. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Problem is some of the same large scale forcing that causes cold now can cause an opposite reaction mid winter. That’s why snowfall in October has no correlation with a snowy winter. Imagine how insufferable the weenies would be here if one year the metros get a half inch of snow in late October, leading them to believe we’re in for an epic winter, only for it to turn out to be a 19-20 22-23 01-02 97-98 style non winter because of the reason you just mentioned. The salt would be legendary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 4 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Imagine how insufferable the weenies would be here if one year the metros get a half inch of snow in late October, leading them to believe we’re in for an epic winter, only for it to turn out to be a 19-20 22-23 01-02 97-98 style non winter because of the reason you just mentioned. The salt would be legendary. October snow is an Omen for the following Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 4 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Imagine how insufferable the weenies would be here if one year the metros get a half inch of snow in late October, leading them to believe we’re in for an epic winter, only for it to turn out to be a 19-20 22-23 01-02 97-98 style non winter because of the reason you just mentioned. The salt would be legendary. I picked up 4” on 10/29/2011 and 4 more inches total the rest of the winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 19 minutes ago, WVclimo said: I picked up 4” on 10/29/2011 and 4 more inches total the rest of the winter. We just cant know the character of winter until the rate of change of snow cover advance over Eurasia is determined during the month of October. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 1 minute ago, CAPE said: We just cant know the character of winter until the rate of change of snow cover advance over Eurasia is determined during the month of October. OMG, you didn't go there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 1 minute ago, frd said: OMG, you didn't go there. Well, he manages to claim victory if winter in the east is cold/snowy regardless of how his postulation works out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted August 16 Share Posted August 16 1 hour ago, WVclimo said: I picked up 4” on 10/29/2011 and 4 more inches total the rest of the winter. That was before the epic region wide fail streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 18 Share Posted August 18 On 8/15/2025 at 8:19 AM, mitchnick said: It got better yesterday. An update from yesterday's run for week of 8/25 fwiw. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 Looking at the latest ens means, nothing but normal to below normal temps in sight through the end of the month and into the beginning of Sept. Once Erin passes, dewpoints will be in the comfortable range. Looks like some of the upcoming nights will feature temps in the mid to upper 50s. Bring it! 7 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 On 8/15/2025 at 8:19 AM, mitchnick said: It got better yesterday. The last forecast for the week of 8/25 off the weeklies and it turned out to be the coldest forecast of all! 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 10 hours ago, mitchnick said: The last forecast for the week of 8/25 off the weeklies and it turned out to be the coldest forecast of all! Bring it! Will be nice to take hour walks in the morning without dripping buckets of sweat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 14 hours ago, CAPE said: Looking at the latest ens means, nothing but normal to below normal temps in sight through the end of the month and into the beginning of Sept. Once Erin passes, dewpoints will be in the comfortable range. Looks like some of the upcoming nights will feature temps in the mid to upper 50s. Bring it! This is great for the kids starting school next week. My son walks and his school was having AC issues in June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted August 20 Share Posted August 20 What we have been talking about in graphics. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted August 21 Share Posted August 21 5 hours ago, katabatic said: What we have been talking about in graphics. I can't believe they are allowing me to view this porn at work.... 2 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted Thursday at 12:57 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:57 PM 11 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: I can't believe they are allowing me to view this porn at work.... If this verifies, we'll have a pretty cool August. Most of the NWS stations are listing at least -2 avg temp deviation for the month so far. (e.g. KNAK -2.4; DCA -2.8) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Thursday at 08:52 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:52 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted Thursday at 08:57 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:57 PM June and July were wet. August has been very dry at only 19% of normal moisture thru 8-20. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago The incredibly nice weather looks to continue into the first week of September. The trade off is mostly dry conditions with moisture remaining south of us/off the coast.. I'll think take it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 24 minutes ago, CAPE said: The incredibly nice weather looks to continue into the first week of September. The trade off is mostly dry conditions with moisture remaining south of us/off the coast.. I'll think take it. I wonder if the weather pattern in the western us and Eastern Pacific will lead to an increasing PDO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, CAPE said: The incredibly nice weather looks to continue into the first week of September. The trade off is mostly dry conditions with moisture remaining south of us/off the coast.. I'll think take it. We’re going to pay for it in October. Be it a 90+ in the first week, a week of mid/upper 80s highs mid month, an 80+ day around Halloween, or a combination of these. We always pay for early met fall cool spells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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