August Medium/ Long Range

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, kgottwald said:

Never mind the back-and-forth, I'm just thoroughly tired of the 70+ dewpoints, which according to the AFD won't be decreased by the upcoming "cold" fronts. Can't wait for the cooling trend.

Early next week the dewpoints will still be on the higher side due to the flow around Erin as it passes off the coast. Also depends on how close it tracks to the coast- Euro has it a bit closer. Mid to late week when winds shift to the N/NE on the backside drier air will work in. Looks like dewpoints may drop into the 50s to low 60s.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Not that late summer/early fall cold shots are always indicative of an incoming cold winter, I'd bet my retirement that most warm winters lack them. So decreasing the chance of a warm winter is always a step in the right direction at this point of the year imho.

September 2017 had an early cold shot, only to have the equinox have a high in the 90s. That following winter had an 80 degree day in February. At the time it was the earliest 80 on record.

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

September 2017 had an early cold shot, only to have the equinox have a high in the 90s. That following winter had an 80 degree day in February. At the time it was the earliest 80 on record.

That's why I said "most." It’s never wall to wall cold early in the season or all through a cold winter. Even 1/96 had a heck of a warm spell. But I'm not even suggesting it will be a cold winter or that you need early cool shots for a cold winter. My point was more to suggest we may be able to lower the odds the cr@p, warm winters in light of the early season cool shots.

[CAPE]

5 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

September 2017 had an early cold shot, only to have the equinox have a high in the 90s. That following winter had an 80 degree day in February. At the time it was the earliest 80 on record.

Without digging into it, I would guess there probably isn't much of a correlation between early Fall cool periods and the overall upcoming winter pattern. It's just too soon for the character of winter to show its hand, for many reasons.

Maybe @psuhoffmancan shed some light on this.

[stormy]

Early cold shots have absolutely no clue to the following winter.........................

This is something that has been demonstrated many times.

If anyone wants a clue, come back about Thanksgiving.