August Medium/ Long Range

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, kgottwald said:

Never mind the back-and-forth, I'm just thoroughly tired of the 70+ dewpoints, which according to the AFD won't be decreased by the upcoming "cold" fronts. Can't wait for the cooling trend.

Early next week the dewpoints will still be on the higher side due to the flow around Erin as it passes off the coast. Also depends on how close it tracks to the coast- Euro has it a bit closer. Mid to late week when winds shift to the N/NE on the backside drier air will work in. Looks like dewpoints may drop into the 50s to low 60s.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Not that late summer/early fall cold shots are always indicative of an incoming cold winter, I'd bet my retirement that most warm winters lack them. So decreasing the chance of a warm winter is always a step in the right direction at this point of the year imho.

September 2017 had an early cold shot, only to have the equinox have a high in the 90s. That following winter had an 80 degree day in February. At the time it was the earliest 80 on record.