August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[BxEngine]

I was leaving the jersey shore and getting gas in Brick when the storms rolled thru. Lightning struck directly across the street and everyone lost power….after 3 gallons  

[bluewave]

Some records from 1993 have been very difficult to beat. It still remains the only year where the warm spots had 100° heat from June through September. Was the only year with 9 days getting to 100°. 

But the 2020s are getting close to surpassing the 1990s for total 100° days with 4 years to go. The 2020s only need 3 more 100° days to set the new record.
 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ June Through September Maximum Temperatures
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	103	101	96	M	103
2021	103	97	99	91	103
2011	102	108	98	88	108
1994	102	99	95	92	102
1993	102	105	100	100	105
1952	102	98	92	94	102
1943	102	95	97	93	102
1988	101	101	99	86	101
1966	101	105	95	91	105
2024	100	99	100	87	100
1959	100	93	96	93	100
1953	100	99	102	105	105
1934	100	98	90	85	100
1923	100	99	92	90	100

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec 100° Days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1993	9	0
2	1949	8	0
3	2025	7	136
4	2022	6	0
-	1953	6	0
6	1988	5	0
-	1966	5	0

100° days

1990s….19 days

2020s…17 days

1940s….16 days

1950s….15 days

2010s….13 days

2000s…11 days

1980s….9 days

1960s….6 days

1970s….3 days

 

 

[MANDA]

Skunked on the rainfall again IMBY.  On a brighter note it is really pleasant out there this morning.  Temperature of 59, low humidity and a nice breeze.

Very refreshing for a change!

[ag3]

What a gorgeous morning. Feels like fall.

[Brian5671]

59 here with NE winds

[wdrag]

Testing modeling: WPC seems strongly attached to the much drier GEFS/EPS per no qpf in our subform, this week as per attached 5 day qpf issued around Mon 8/18 10z.

Please follow NWS/WPC/NHC.  I'll continue to monitor for my own interest on whether the more benign GEFS prevails over the more vigorous EPS in our NYC subforum.   This post continues from Saturday 410PM and prior posts last week and will be a lesson for me regarding EPS and EPS AI.   IF the GEFS is to prevail,  EPS and EPS AI will have to dry out soon. 

EPS suite is as yet the most intriguing for 1-2" 12 hour general rainfall sometime between 8/19-21 for NJ/CT/NYS/PA, in part due to nw flow UL short wave with associated RRQ UL jet in the Maritimes and some relatively shallow low level ese moisture inflow related to the position of the H near Nova Scotia and the L near Lake Erie,  connecting a bit with ERIN?  EPS PW steady since the past Saturday near 1.5" for 12z Wed at 40N. Lots of fairly deep vorticity NYS into the mid Atlantic states along the boundary this week into Thu AM.    Atlantic Recurvature PRE composite has had my attention since late last week.  ODDS for recent drought easing rainfall per multi modeling are very low. Yet, continues my attention on ultimate results for Tue-Wed-Thu AM this week.  Just to see how erroneous the EC AI can be.

 

Added WPC 5 day,  the 06z ECAI and its 06z ensemble as well as the 00z/18 EPS AI 24 hour prob for 1" (very low prob except I90 in NYS). EC EPS is less vigorous than the EC AI suite. 

[bluewave]

Maybe the EPS shifting to a deeper trough and stronger cold front passage next Monday could actually give us some organized rainfall rather than the spotty convection of late leading to the developing dry pattern. 
 

 

New run

Old run

 

[winterwarlock]

that wind is biting this morning....brrr

 

8 day heatwave will fall by the wayside

[Stormlover74]

10 hours ago, FPizz said:

All missed here.  Philly area getting hammered

Mt. Holly nearly 5"