July Banter 2025

[George BM]

Forecast Discussion

Thursday, July 24, 2025 3:28PM EDT

 

Our break from active and life-threatening weather has once again come to an unfortunate end. From extreme wind storms, high-end derechos, major/violent tornado outbreaks and even an all-time historic blizzard to start out May a few years back, we just cannot seem to catch any break. I mean seriously, what the heck happened at the turn of this decade where since then seemingly EVERY SINGLE KIND of weather event cranks it up to MAXIMUM POWER and causes MAXIMUM pain in this region.

Carrying on…

For the past couple of days, we’ve been enjoying unseasonably cool conditions with highs in the 70-75F range and lows ranging from the M/U 50s in urban areas and 40s in the mountains. This is courtesy of a longwave trough that has settled in over the eastern half of the US. However, it has become overcast this afternoon with high clouds from Dexter which is currently approaching our area from the south. Dexter is a strengthening major hurricane located off of the SC/GA coastline moving northeast. Dexter is beginning to interact with the trough that is centered just west of our region in the Appalachians/ eastern Ohio Valley. This will become cutoff as we go through the evening and, yet again, this will allow a major tropical system (in this case, Dexter) to get captured by the trough rather than kicked and pinwheel it north and then northwestwards into our region.

Rain will spread into the region from southeast to northwest through the night as temps hold in the 60s areawide with the cool air from the trough still in place. This cool air and trough interaction will mean two things.

1.     The severe/tornado threat will be low, though not zero, especially in far eastern zones that get a healthy surge of low-level warm tropical air allowing for an elevated tornado threat there.

2.     However, the trough interaction will significantly increase the rainfall rates to the northwest and west of the center of Dexter.

As a result, the rain will become very heavy over the region by sunrise tomorrow morning. During the day tomorrow torrential rains with increasingly high winds will batter the greater DC and Baltimore metros with 1.5 to 3 inch per hour rainfall rates becoming commonplace and winds gusting up to hurricane force (75-80+ mph gusts) by the late afternoon/early evening hours.

The wrath of Dexter will reach its climax tomorrow night as the center moves northwest and loops or stalls over/near the Chesapeake Bay and mouth of the Potomac. Winds could gust up to 100+mph across the forecast area as heavy to torrential rains continue leading to basically universal power outages with significant structural damage.

Over the course of the day on Saturday, Dexter will slowly spin down over the region allowing heavy rains and high winds to continue throughout the day. By Sunday, rain should finally taper off to moderate showers with breezy conditions continuing through the day.

Rainfall totals:

For the greater metro areas rainfall totals of 24 to 40 inches will be commonplace with localized amounts of up to 50 inches. Some spots in the mountains could get in excess of 5 feet of rain.

Winds:

Wind gusts will reach tropical storm strength from SE to NW between 5am and midday Friday. They will reach hurricane strength from SE to NW between midday and 7pm Friday.

The strongest winds will occur between 9pm Friday and 6am Saturday with wind gusts in excess of 125mph possible in eastern zones and the Bay. Peak gusts of 90 to 110mph look most likely in the metros for now. Gusts of 75 to 90mph is the most likely scenario in the mountains and along the I-81 corridor. Though higher elevations could potentially gust as high as 110mph.

Once this is all out of here, most likely by Monday, the rest of the coming week looks fairly benign as we head into August with slightly below normal temps and dry conditions for the period… which would be great as, for literally the twentieth time in the past five years, no one will have power. Look, just take care of each other and look out for the elderly and homeless. Be kind. Thoughtful… I'm outta here. 

 

An exhausted forecaster wannabe: George BM

[nj2va]

Happy July and Happy Birthday America!

[DanTheMan]

Happy July! The days are getting shorter

[Jebman]

On 6/30/2025 at 9:41 PM, George BM said:

Forecast Discussion

Thursday, July 24, 2025 3:28PM EDT

 

Our break from active and life-threatening weather has once again come to an unfortunate end. From extreme wind storms, high-end derechos, major/violent tornado outbreaks and even an all-time historic blizzard to start out May a few years back, we just cannot seem to catch any break. I mean seriously, what the heck happened at the turn of this decade where since then seemingly EVERY SINGLE KIND of weather event cranks it up to MAXIMUM POWER and causes MAXIMUM pain in this region.

Carrying on…

For the past couple of days, we’ve been enjoying unseasonably cool conditions with highs in the 70-75F range and lows ranging from the M/U 50s in urban areas and 40s in the mountains. This is courtesy of a longwave trough that has settled in over the eastern half of the US. However, it has become overcast this afternoon with high clouds from Dexter which is currently approaching our area from the south. Dexter is a strengthening major hurricane located off of the SC/GA coastline moving northeast. Dexter is beginning to interact with the trough that is centered just west of our region in the Appalachians/ eastern Ohio Valley. This will become cutoff as we go through the evening and, yet again, this will allow a major tropical system (in this case, Dexter) to get captured by the trough rather than kicked and pinwheel it north and then northwestwards into our region.

Rain will spread into the region from southeast to northwest through the night as temps hold in the 60s areawide with the cool air from the trough still in place. This cool air and trough interaction will mean two things.

1.     The severe/tornado threat will be low, though not zero, especially in far eastern zones that get a healthy surge of low-level warm tropical air allowing for an elevated tornado threat there.

2.     However, the trough interaction will significantly increase the rainfall rates to the northwest and west of the center of Dexter.

As a result, the rain will become very heavy over the region by sunrise tomorrow morning. During the day tomorrow torrential rains with increasingly high winds will batter the greater DC and Baltimore metros with 1.5 to 3 inch per hour rainfall rates becoming commonplace and winds gusting up to hurricane force (75-80+ mph gusts) by the late afternoon/early evening hours.

The wrath of Dexter will reach its climax tomorrow night as the center moves northwest and loops or stalls over/near the Chesapeake Bay and mouth of the Potomac. Winds could gust up to 100+mph across the forecast area as heavy to torrential rains continue leading to basically universal power outages with significant structural damage.

Over the course of the day on Saturday, Dexter will slowly spin down over the region allowing heavy rains and high winds to continue throughout the day. By Sunday, rain should finally taper off to moderate showers with breezy conditions continuing through the day.

Rainfall totals:

For the greater metro areas rainfall totals of 24 to 40 inches will be commonplace with localized amounts of up to 50 inches. Some spots in the mountains could get in excess of 5 feet of rain.

Winds:

Wind gusts will reach tropical storm strength from SE to NW between 5am and midday Friday. They will reach hurricane strength from SE to NW between midday and 7pm Friday.

The strongest winds will occur between 9pm Friday and 6am Saturday with wind gusts in excess of 125mph possible in eastern zones and the Bay. Peak gusts of 90 to 110mph look most likely in the metros for now. Gusts of 75 to 90mph is the most likely scenario in the mountains and along the I-81 corridor. Though higher elevations could potentially gust as high as 110mph.

Once this is all out of here, most likely by Monday, the rest of the coming week looks fairly benign as we head into August with slightly below normal temps and dry conditions for the period… which would be great as, for literally the twentieth time in the past five years, no one will have power. Look, just take care of each other and look out for the elderly and homeless. Be kind. Thoughtful… I'm outta here. 

 

An exhausted forecaster wannabe: George BM

Forecast Discussion SUNDAY JULY 27 2025

George BM is one of the foremost senior forecasters we have ever seen. No one can forecast storms like this force of nature. GBM is at it all day and all night on into the new day, will keep right on, displaying almost outright supernatural energy, stamina, and incredible insight into the vagaries of meteorology!

George BM, this is one of your finest EVER! Thank you so much!

This weather community would never be the same without you!

 

 

In other news, Everyone stay safe and enjoy all the rains that have been falling on the DC Metro Region in the past 24 hours. Here's to more of the same overnight on into tomorrow!

[Jebman]

On 7/1/2025 at 7:15 AM, DanTheMan said:

Happy July! The days are getting shorter

You're gonna love what's coming this fall and winter.

[Interstate]

@WxUSAFjust wanted to say sorry for ending Elkridge 11U season at Clash of the Titan beach tournament.