fall-ish banter

[donsutherland1]

Negativity about this winter seems to be rising. There seems to be a growing focus on the time snow does not fall.

I choose to focus on the positive. I savor every snowfall, even the small ones. Sunday's snowfall provided some scenes that can be used for some of the custom Holiday e-cards I will share with colleagues at work. One example:

[IrishRob17]

30 minutes ago, Santa Claus said:

i will be honest i have not started making any of this year’s presents yet

I thought the elves did that?

[IrishRob17]

9 minutes ago, Santa Claus said:

oh now some graupel enthusiast is going to tell santa how his own goddamn workshop operates

That was in the form of a question, Santa.

[donsutherland1]

While we wait for the next snow...

Note: All photos were taken at the New York Botanical Garden on December 14, 2025.

[bluewave]

On 12/17/2025 at 6:14 PM, Volcanic Winter said:

Interesting food for thought, was having a discussion with ChatGPT about NJ climo during the LIA. It feels 40-60” per year would’ve been meteorologically plausible during the peak mid 16th-18th century years. Less boundary layer issues of course, probably less intense benchmark systems overall but less that are rain and many more nickel dime events throughout the winter. January thaws happen but much less regularly. Peak winters are 3-5F colder with some much more so, especially following the biggest eruptions that caused MAJOR climate perturbations like Huaynaputina 1600.

Also of note it felt that if you transplanted 1/29/22 back into a peak LIA year and shift it 50 miles west, it’s a “storm of the century” type deal. I do recall the dynamics of that system being nuts. 

Eh, just in the spirit of banter - grain of salt, unprovable anyhow, etc. 

You are correct. The recently added Newark snowfall back to 1843-1844 shows a 30 year snowfall average of 43.7”. So areas just west of the present I-95 corridor were probably closer to 50”. The winter average temperature then was 30.7° which is 7° colder than the most recent 10 year average.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.1	0.8	9.1	12.1	12.6	7.3	1.8	43.7
1843-1844	0.0	1.3	9.5	5.5	13.5	1.8	0.0	31.6
1844-1845	0.0	0.5	6.5	5.5	20.5	5.5	T	38.5
1845-1846	0.0	T	8.5	16.5	28.0	T	T	53.0
1846-1847	0.0	1.5	12.0	10.0	21.0	4.3	0.5	49.3
1847-1848	0.0	T	6.0	T	8.0	5.0	T	19.0
1848-1849	0.0	1.3	24.0	T	13.0	6.0	0.0	44.3
1849-1850	0.0	0.0	11.0	3.0	T	9.0	8.0	31.0
1850-1851	0.0	0.0	6.0	2.5	3.5	10.5	2.0	24.5
1851-1852	0.0	2.0	7.0	20.0	14.0	16.0	4.3	63.3
1852-1853	0.0	T	T	15.5	2.3	7.0	T	24.8
1853-1854	0.0	M	6.0	15.0	23.5	2.8	13.5	60.8
1854-1855	0.0	T	8.0	18.5	16.0	2.5	T	45.0
1855-1856	0.0	T	9.0	32.8	5.0	11.0	0.0	57.8
1856-1857	0.0	0.5	4.3	28.1	2.1	17.0	0.0	52.0
1857-1858	0.0	T	4.5	1.8	10.5	10.5	T	27.3
1858-1859	0.0	5.5	6.5	12.3	15.8	6.0	T	46.1
1859-1860	3.0	0.0	5.1	11.3	25.0	2.5	T	46.9
1860-1861	0.0	T	7.0	20.6	1.3	17.0	2.0	47.9
1861-1862	0.0	1.0	1.0	12.0	25.5	4.6	6.0	50.1
1862-1863	0.0	6.5	8.0	10.0	13.0	10.9	1.8	50.2
1863-1864	0.0	T	4.3	7.0	1.0	7.0	T	19.3
1864-1865	0.0	0.3	26.0	10.5	12.5	T	0.0	49.3
1865-1866	0.0	0.0	13.1	11.8	8.0	1.5	T	34.4
1866-1867	0.0	T	7.0	23.5	15.5	17.5	T	63.5
1867-1868	0.0	T	15.5	23.3	14.0	15.0	7.0	74.8
1868-1869	T	0.0	9.5	11.0	12.0	5.0	0.6	38.1
1869-1870	T	T	8.1	1.8	8.5	11.0	3.0	32.4
1870-1871	0.0	T	5.0	16.0	16.1	1.3	2.0	40.4
1871-1872	0.0	T	8.5	2.0	5.0	8.5	T	24.0
1872-1873	0.0	4.0	25.1	14.1	23.3	2.2	3.0	71.7

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	32.2	29.1	30.7	30.7
1843-1844	33.4	25.5	31.5	30.1
1844-1845	32.5	33.4	32.7	32.9
1845-1846	27.7	30.7	27.2	28.5
1846-1847	30.8	31.7	29.5	30.7
1847-1848	35.1	33.7	30.5	33.1
1848-1849	40.5	24.5	24.9	30.0
1849-1850	33.4	33.5	35.4	34.1
1850-1851	33.2	33.9	36.6	34.6
1851-1852	27.7	25.9	30.9	28.2
1852-1853	39.9	31.9	35.1	35.6
1853-1854	32.4	28.4	30.6	30.5
1854-1855	29.7	32.4	26.9	29.7
1855-1856	33.7	22.3	25.2	27.1
1856-1857	30.8	21.1	35.2	29.0
1857-1858	37.4	35.1	26.4	33.0
1858-1859	34.1	31.5	33.2	32.9
1859-1860	28.6	29.0	29.3	29.0
1860-1861	29.1	28.9	35.7	31.2
1861-1862	35.1	27.1	30.3	30.8
1862-1863	33.4	32.8	31.9	32.7
1863-1864	30.8	29.6	33.4	31.3
1864-1865	32.6	21.7	30.0	28.1
1865-1866	35.6	28.3	30.6	31.5
1866-1867	31.4	22.9	36.4	30.2
1867-1868	27.5	25.4	21.3	24.7
1868-1869	28.3	33.1	33.8	31.7
1869-1870	33.0	36.2	30.6	33.3
1870-1871	33.7	26.4	29.7	29.9
1871-1872	29.6	29.7	29.9	29.7
1872-1873	24.8	24.9	27.5	25.7

 

[MJO812]

Winter might be over

[rclab]

36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Winter might be over

Caution with that kind of talk Anthony….. you just gave S19 a woody. Stay hopeful! As always ….

 

[sussexcountyobs]

Will Central Park measure .1" of snow? They'll probably clock in with .08".

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Will Central Park measure .1" of snow? They'll probably clock in with .08".

doesn't anyone go where they measure when the snow is falling and try to determine whats causing the constant low totals ?

[sussexcountyobs]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

doesn't anyone go where they measure when the snow is falling and try to determine whats causing the constant low totals ?

With the amount of people that live in NYC. You would think at least a few would.? I don't get it?

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

With the amount of people that live in NYC. You would think at least a few would.? I don't get it?

I think it has to be an employee of the NWS - anyone on here live near Central Park and can measure close to where they get their measurements from ? maybe Walt has some more info on the measurements and why they are always low

 

[sussexcountyobs]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

I think it has to be an employee of the NWS - anyone on here live near Central Park and can measure close to where they get their measurements from ?

This is not rocket science.  It's pretty simple.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said:

This is not rocket science.  It's pretty simple.

then why hasn't the problem been solved and corrected ?

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Central Park always under measures! How is that even legal!?

[North and West]

then why hasn't the problem been solved and corrected ?
 

They’re in bed with Big Melt.


.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

This is not rocket science.  It's pretty simple.

Consider that the official Measurer, or whatever title you want to give him, was the Central Park Zookeeper from 1992-2014. A period of some of the worst under measured storms of all time. 
They handed it off to the Conservancy and from 2015-2019 it improved quite a bit. Since 2020 they have been as bad as the zookeeper was.

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

then why hasn't the problem been solved and corrected ?

 

Because they dont think there is a problem 

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, North and West said:

They’re in bed with Big Melt.


.

seriously - this official chart contains those inaccurate measurements - not good

monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

[sussexcountyobs]

8-9 million people in NYC.. Everyone is constantly taking BS selfies and what not on their phone. No one can go to where CP measures, and document it? Is it off limits like Area 51? Ridiculous. 

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Consider that the official Measurer, or whatever title you want to give him, was the Central Park Zookeeper from 1992-2014. A period of some of the worst under measured storms of all time. 
They handed it off to the Conservancy and from 2015-2019 it improved quite a bit. Since 2020 they have been as bad as the zookeeper was.

NWS needs to either put a dedicated observer there who will do it properly or just use obs from someplace else. 

[cleetussnow]

We need a pinned thread for all of the posts in this forum about central park snow measurements.  There’s more chatter about that than almost any other topic.  And it’s the same banal banter and thats all it is at this point.

Yes central park sucks at measuring snow. We agree.  Move on and go touch grass...  or snow.  And if you want, you go can measure whatever snow there is for yourself.  Write it down, come back in this thread and tell us what your findings are.  

[sussexcountyobs]

5 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

We need a pinned thread for all of the posts in this forum about central park snow measurements.  There’s more chatter about that than almost any other topic.  And it’s the same banal banter and thats all it is at this point.

Yes central park sucks at measuring snow. We agree.  Move on and go touch grass...  or snow.  And if you want, you go can measure whatever snow there is for yourself.  Write it down, come back in this thread and tell us what your findings are.  

Exactly. City folk should stop complaining. If you live close? Go there. Measure. Document it. Done.. That's what I've been saying.  Why is this so hard?

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

NWS needs to either put a dedicated observer there who will do it properly or just use obs from someplace else. 

And since we'll sooner see omega humping an out of control NAM run than budget approval for a dedicated observer in the park, you know which way this is more likely to go.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

4 hours ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Exactly. City folk should stop complaining. If you live close? Go there. Measure. Document it. Done.. That's what I've been saying.  Why is this so hard?

I live 50 miles north of NYC and I've been complaining for decades. I created this screename in the late 90's on the old Bill Evans AccuWeather weather forum and there was good reason I chose it. I had several discussions with Bill back in that time period and he said he thought the yearly average in CP was probably 4-5 inches higher than what was actually recorded. 

Years later 2011-2014, I discussed the problem with the NWS many times leading to the change to the conservancy taking the measurements in  2015. They always acknowledged the problem but always stated how difficult it is to get a reliable person to the park to measure. They even asked at one point if I wanted to do it, considering the distance I politely declined. 
 

Like I said earlier they then took the measurements from the Central Park zookeeper in late 2014 and started with the Conservancy taking the measurements. To repeat myself it did improve significantly from 2015-2019 but has been pretty much a shit show again since 2020.

There are most likely several reasons for their constant under measurements. Where they measure, when they measure, not measuring immediately after events end so there is time for compression, settling or melting and having an organization measuring that doesn't seem to care about accuracy and timeliness.

 

[NorthShoreWx]

 

850
FXUS61 KOKX 212101 CCA
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
401 PM EST Sun Dec 21 2025

...

QPF overall will be light, largely near or under a quarter inch, which will limit any potential snowfall. Forecast amounts have
not changed significantly from the previous forecast, with up to an inch along the coast, and 1 to 2 inches moving inland northof interstates 80 and 95, with highest amounts in the elevated areas of the interior LoHud Valley, interior SW Connecticut, and NE NJ. Central Park Snow Observer activation is not expected at this time.

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Consider that the official Measurer, or whatever title you want to give him, was the Central Park Zookeeper from 1992-2014. A period of some of the worst under measured storms of all time. 
They handed it off to the Conservancy and from 2015-2019 it improved quite a bit. Since 2020 they have been as bad as the zookeeper was.

The issues began when the NWS left NYC back in 1993. The trees over grew the site and the temperatures started running cooler than the other stations. Then the snowfall  began to regularly get under measured.

This is why I have been leaning more on using EWR and LGA for snow and temperatures. There was some interest from the media over 20 years ago on the topic. More recently there was a crew that measured about 1” more last week and Sam Champion measured about 1” higher with another event in recent years.

I calculated that if the trees didn’t over grow the site, that NYC would have closer to 28 to 29 days reaching 90° each year on average since 2010 instead of the reported 17 to 18 days.

The under measurement for snowfall isn’t as great as the temperatures. The NYC snowfall average last 7 seasons is only -1.1” under LGA and -2.4” below Newark. 

So anyone using NYC for temperature and snowfall contests should consider switching to LGA and EWR.

 

Central Park Weather: Vegetative Overgrowth Affecting Weather Readings - WABC-TV

(New York-WABC, August 22, 2003) - Forecasting the weather is not easy.
Government equipment can often be blamed for giving faulty weather
information. As Bill Evans explains, a big culprit may be some of the
equipment buried in Central Park.

Rainfall, snowfall, and the temperature are all vital information
recorded 24 hours a day at the weather station located in the heart of
Central Park.

But meteorologists like Michael Schlacter have serious concerns about the
accuracy of the stations data. It sits amid overgrown vegetation and he
says thats the problem. The leaves can trigger snow gauges and trees can
warp rain and wind measurements. On this hot day, a temperature gauge is
in the shade instead of direct sunlight.

Michael Schlacter, Weather 2000: "Its kind of like driving a car
without a speedometer, odometer, and gas gauge. You are running with
false information."

The weather instruments at Belvedere Castle have long adorned the top.
There used to be a government meteorologist here in the city to keep an
eye on them. But now the nearest meteorologist is 60 miles that way.

But National Weather Service meteorologists say they knew the weather
readings in the park would never be as keenly accurate as the ones at
the airports where guidelines prevent foliage from being within 100 feet
of the station.

Schlacter: "We knew that at times we would have flaky readings, that
leaves would fall in gauges, that we would have problems with
visibility sensors."

[NWS Meteorologist-in-Charge Michael] Wyllie says the weather station is
there because it was historically significant to maintain its presence
in the park.

He says theres been a lot of growth because of the wet spring at so much
in fact that temperatures have routinely been recorded lower in the park
than at the airports.

Wyllie: "We are actually having a micro climate system there because of
the vegetation."

Imperfect perhaps but nonetheless the system provides the official record
of weather for the country's largest city. And Michael Schlacter says
its a city that deserves better.

Schlacter: "I think New Yorkers deserve a lot better, and I think they
deserve the best weather station money can buy."


Copyright 2003 ABC Inc., WABC-TV Inc.

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

59 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The under measurement for snowfall isn’t as great as the temperatures. The NYC snowfall average last 7 seasons is only -1.1” under LGA and -2.4” below Newark. 

When the Conservancy took over in 2015 I monitored the measurements for the first several years. They seemed to be doing a good job from 2015-2020. If you take the last 5 seasons Central Park has averaged 2.6 inches less than Newark and 2.1 inches less than LGA per year. When you consider that the average snowfall over the last 5 seasons has been 15.8 to 18.4 that's a fairly high percentage difference on the order of 13-16% lower at Central Park vs the two stations it lies in between.

This is probably boring to most and probably warrants it's own thread for those that have followed and monitored this for many years. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

MOD? is there a way we could pin the two snow potential to the top?

[Stormlover74]

And change to winter banter/winter canceled thread so people can complain in here

[Nibor]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

And change to winter banter/winter canceled thread so people can complain in here

Wishful thinking.