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Fall Banter/LibertyBell


Rjay
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1 hour ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

I just moved up here from central NC. Had been there my whole life aside from a year and a half in DC. And boy I’ve had my share of disappointment. Hope I’m not too late on the climate change scale to experience a snowy NYC winter. Excited to learn some of the fundamentals of this climo!

Welcome to the NY area. 

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13 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Welcome! If you're a football fan, how do you like Bill? My guess is that since you were not up here for the very snowy period that some here grew up with and thought was the new normal, you won't be disappointed especially when you compare a winter here with those further south. 

Trying hard to believe in the process, but it’s been a biiiit of a circus to say the least at times. 2 wins in a row now though! 
 

We went from having no defense and a killer offense the past few years to now having a decent defense but no offense.

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11 hours ago, Sundog said:

It looks like he moved to Park Slope. Poor guy has to contend with one of the worst UHIs on Earth lol watching snowflakes melt on impact is painful 

He and Anthony could become buddies lol

Oooh interesting that it’s uniquely bad compared to the rest of the city—any reasons why? I’m only a block from prospect park though, so hoping on getting to see some snow stick there

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11 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

Oooh interesting that it’s uniquely bad compared to the rest of the city—any reasons why? I’m only a block from prospect park though, so hoping on getting to see some snow stick there

First off welcome to NYC! And second no it’s not like you are in Times Square lol. 

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42 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

Oooh interesting that it’s uniquely bad compared to the rest of the city—any reasons why? I’m only a block from prospect park though, so hoping on getting to see some snow stick there

It's better than Manhattan obviously.

But, no where close to ideal. Western Brooklyn/Western Queens and Manhattan is the peak UHI zone. 

Since you're close to the park you at least have a good option to see better stickage. 

Overall though with a big well placed storm you will be fine. Problem is getting one lol

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Crazy for so early in the season

Including the cities of Chicago, Peotone, Northbrook, Crete, Evanston, Lemont, Park Forest, Schaumburg, Cicero, Oak Park, La Grange, Des Plaines, Oak Forest, Oak Lawn, Calumet City, Beecher, Palatine, and Orland Park

224 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST

MONDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerous to impossible travel conditions due to intense lake effect snow expected. Snow rates in excess of 3 inches per hour, localized total snow accumulations of 12 to 18 inches, and northerly wind gusts in excess of 30 mph are expected.

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On 11/9/2025 at 10:59 AM, Stormlover74 said:

Crazy for so early in the season

Including the cities of Chicago, Peotone, Northbrook, Crete, Evanston, Lemont, Park Forest, Schaumburg, Cicero, Oak Park, La Grange, Des Plaines, Oak Forest, Oak Lawn, Calumet City, Beecher, Palatine, and Orland Park

224 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST

MONDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerous to impossible travel conditions due to intense lake effect snow expected. Snow rates in excess of 3 inches per hour, localized total snow accumulations of 12 to 18 inches, and northerly wind gusts in excess of 30 mph are expected.

 

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The first photo was taken Oct 29th the second today, 12 days later. The second, third and fourth photos show how a small piece of inner city Brooklyn accelerated to peak. Looking at the street side or from the backyard roof the transformation gives me a sense of peace …… because, I, like the season, am in the Autumn of my years. Stay well everyone. As always ……

 

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On 11/10/2025 at 1:48 PM, rclab said:

The first photo was taken Oct 29th the second today, 12 days later. The second, third and fourth photos show how a small piece of inner city Brooklyn accelerated to peak. Looking at the street side or from the backyard roof the transformation gives me a sense of peace …… because, I, like the season, am in the Autumn of my years. Stay well everyone. As always ……

 

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Thanks for posting such beautiful photos. Probably one of the most in demand urban places in the U.S. that people want to move to. You are really lucky to be living in such a charming historic area. 
 

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DQZcBGhAEp7/

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Thanks for posting such beautiful photos. Probably one of the most in demand urban places in the U.S. that people want to move to. You are really lucky to be living in such a charming historic area. 
 

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DQZcBGhAEp7/

Thank you BW. 55 years ago I started working in the area, than married into the area. The row house across the street was boarded up, as was another around the corner, on Kane Street. Gentrification took hold and now both those buildings, which went for taxes, can command 4 to 7 million dollar price tags. The fall is (anthony forgive me) my favorite season. The end of life is also the promise of life. When winter finally arrives for me …. I hope to be ready. Stay well, as always …..

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22 hours ago, Dark Star said:

What can Vocanic Winter share about possible Hawaiian volcanos and Mount Rainier tremblings?

Kilauea is doing sustained summit eruptions and recurrent lava fountaining - not to sell it short, spectacular lava fountaining. Apparently Kilauea is under increased magma supply right now from the hotspot and it’s putting it to good use filling in the 2018 caldera. 
 

Mount Rainier is just normal rumblings of its hydrothermal system, if it were to progress to something more the activity would present quite differently IMO. Very likely absolutely nothing other than standard activity. 
 

Laki Laki has had the biggest eruptions in its know history this year, it too potentially being under a period of increased magmatic supply. Several substantial sub-plinian blasts, I think combined definitely VEI4 territory. 
 

Big story right now is in Africa, a volcanic vent that’s been dormant through the Holocene - Hayli Gubbi just had a substantial eruption, possibly a small 4 or large 3 but a very gassy for the size due to the type of magma. The SO2 plume was actually similar to the early estimates of the MUCH larger Hunga Tonga eruption, which goes to show how eruption size doesn’t ALWAYS dictate the amount of gas reaching the stratosphere. 
 

Erta Ale, a very active system with a famous lava lake, had a bunch of its magma drain out and apparently form a lateral dike that extended under Hayli Gubbi, hit a pocket of stale, gassy magma, heat it up, and cause it to erupt. Super fascinating. Still ongoing too. We’ll see what happens. This theoretically could progress as I don’t think we really know what’s sitting under that system. The Afar region is poorly studied and monitored outside Erta Ale which is a big tourist attraction, well relatively speaking. The danakil depression / Afar region is super hazardous topography, very hot and very alien looking. Lot of crazy volcanism. 
 

Fernandina in the Galapagos is having a major swarm right now, that’s a very cool volcano that had a substantial and unusual basaltic plinian caldera eruption in the 1950’s. I think a large VEI 4, but still somewhat unique and was quite an intense (fast) event. We’ll see what happens. 
 

Lots of stuff going on right now, we’ll see how everything progresses.

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The Hayli Gubbi eruption:

Reddit link

I’ve been fairly preoccupied and trying to stay on top of all these volcanic developments and catch up in various threads here. Rest assured if anything really major happens on the volcanic front I’ll do a write up about it - though Hayli Gubbi erupting fits that bill as this doesn’t happen often (long dormant system suddenly waking up due to magma from a neighbor system), and this may not be fully over depending on what’s going on down below. 
 

I would also say there’s been some decent pulses of SO2 this year and last (Raung!) now into the stratosphere from all this activity. Not as much in total as say, El Chichon (and certainly nowhere close to Pinatubo), but enough to possibly have some effect. Was just reading about how cluster of VEI4’s may have had some impact in the 2009-2011 winters, which isn’t typical. Underscores that there’s a lot of interplay we don’t fully 100% understand, but I’ll always maintain volcanoes have a much bigger impact on climate than most realize. And we’re learning a lot of past historical climate disturbances were the result of multiple eruptions clustered together instead of just one, even Tambora had a massive precursor in 1808/9ish. 
 

But to be very clear anything from this year / last would be on the lowest end of impact, if at all. But still possibly something in total. Let’s see what happens going forward. Lot of systems showing unrest!

 

edit: more links

https://watchers.news/2025/11/25/hayli-gubbis-first-eruption-in-at-least-12-000-years-grounds-flights-across-india-and-the-middle-east/

https://watchers.news/2025/11/25/intense-earthquake-swarm-at-galapagos-fernandina-volcano/

 

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15 hours ago, rclab said:

Thank you BW. 55 years ago I started working in the area, than married into the area. The row house across the street was boarded up, as was another around the corner, on Kane Street. Gentrification took hold and now both those buildings, which went for taxes, can command 4 to 7 million dollar price tags. The fall is (anthony forgive me) my favorite season. The end of life is also the promise of life. When winter finally arrives for me …. I hope to be ready. Stay well, as always …..

The same thing happened back in my old neighborhood of Long Beach. Growing up in the 1970s it was more like Coney Island with numerous boardwalk arcades and an amusement park.

Then gentrification began in the 1980s and now multimillion dollar condos took the place of these former attractions. I always found very interesting people living  there and it reminded me more of a NYC cosmopolitan neighborhood than a Long Island suburb.

Out of all the places that I lived on Long Island, Long Beach had the most character. The condos and apartments below are right where the bowling alley used to be before it closed around 1980.

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/100-Boardwalk-Unit-1001_Long-Beach_NY_11561_M99207-31637

https://www.realtor.com/rentals/details/180-Boardwalk_Long-Beach_NY_11561_M94073-56016

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