July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Models seem to like two areas for the larger rain amounts. One in the northern Hudson valley/berkshires area and the other NYC on south. Will see if that’s what actually happens!

Looks like a top fiverr! Or 12th or 13th. Same difference...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

44 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I would call a top 5 snow call that ended up being top 10-12 a good forecast 

Snow vs temps are not the same though.

Every summer you can forecast a top 5 summer and be right more often than not. For snow, good luck with that call lol.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The 8-week battle raging on here daily between two camps was what I was referencing, ha.  We'll call one the "blue team" and the other the "red team."

okay  heh

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Snow vs temps are not the same.

Every summer you can forecast a top 5 summer and be right more often than not. For snow, good luck with that call lol.

If only snow was as stable as warmth is now.  Would love to pencil in top 10 winters annually.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

If only snow was as stable as warmth is now.  Would love to pencil in top 10 winters annually.

We’d fight less and pass beer and gummies around in our virtual bonfires. 

[ineedsnow]

LA with a 4.4    foreshock?

[Typhoon Tip]

42 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

If only snow was as stable as warmth is now.  Would love to pencil in top 10 winters annually.

yeah right ... 

I'm mean I'm preaching to the quire here but mmm ... it's kinda difficult to run a winter expectation when the world is warming.   At baser arithmetic level, let's just say that warming is not synonymous with snow. 

I mean, we can get into the whole debate about burgeoning atmospheric ambient WV going up, such that when it snows it snows harder.  You'd be correct.   But that's during the 'initial stages' of this 'Anthropocene Epoch'  - terminology debate ongoing amid the global scientific ambit.  At some point, harder and hard snows become harder and harder mix ... eventually, cold rain. 

But something else is happening also.  The CC that doesn't exist while something simultaneously fucks up actual climate (  ) is also represented in morphology of storm tracks.  Storm behavior and morphology in and of themselves... Types and distribution.   Speed of the ambient winter hemispheres - there's a reason most commercial airliner air-land speed flight records have been set in the last 20 years, on west to east intercontinental transits, and it's not because the vehicles are necessarily better.  Any evolution of aeronautical design and power conversion mechanics via jet engine propulsion cannot account for taking off from Laguardia and landing at Heathrow in 3.5 hours... or whatever that was ( just 1 ex).  Anyway, all this shit effects how/if a storm snows too.   Think of it this way.  We have a front side dammed in cryogen airmass, but the storm is moving some 15% faster than past climo storm motion... But the evaporation and other physics remain constant - that means the the storm moves by and limits snow, but warms the column in time to clip with more mix to rain scenarios.  Just being a little creative here to exemplify the point...  But, that 1 in 10 storm that stays snow, yeah...snowed more than expected - for now. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah right ... 

I'm mean I'm preaching to the quire here but mmm ... it's kinda difficult to run a winter expectation when the world is warming.   At baser arithmetic level, let's just say that warming is not synonymous with snow. 

I mean, we can get into the whole debate about burgeoning atmospheric ambient WV going up, such that when it snows it snows harder.  You'd be correct.   But that's during the 'initial stages' of this 'Anthropocene Epoch'  - terminology debate ongoing amid the global scientific ambit.  At some point, harder and hard snows become harder and harder mix ... eventually, cold rain. 

But something else is happening also.  The CC that doesn't exist while something simultaneously fucks up actual climate (  ) is also represented in morphology of storm tracks.  Storm behavior and morphology in and of themselves... Types and distribution.   Speed of the ambient winter hemispheres - there's a reason most commercial airliner air-land speed flight records have been set in the last 20 years, on west to east intercontinental transits, and it's not because the vehicles are necessarily better.  Any evolution of aeronautical design and power conversion mechanics via jet engine propulsion cannot account for taking off from Laguardia and landing at Heathrow in 3.5 hours... or whatever that was ( just 1 ex).  Anyway, all this shit effects how/if a storm snows too.   Think of it this way.  We have a front side dammed in cryogen airmass, but the storm is moving some 15% faster than past climo storm motion... But the evaporation and other physics remain constant - that means the the storm moves by and limits snow, but warms the column in time to clip with more mix to rain scenarios.  Just being a little creative here to exemplify the point...  But, that 1 in 10 storm that stays snow, yeah...snowed more than expected - for now. 

You just made WinterWolf howl in anger…

[weatherwiz]

I'd watch the potential for a tornado or two across the Connecticut shoreline and especially Long Island. 

[Hailstoned]

32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah right ... 

I'm mean I'm preaching to the quire here but mmm ... it's kinda difficult to run a winter expectation when the world is warming.   At baser arithmetic level, let's just say that warming is not synonymous with snow. 

I mean, we can get into the whole debate about burgeoning atmospheric ambient WV going up, such that when it snows it snows harder.  You'd be correct.   But that's during the 'initial stages' of this 'Anthropocene Epoch'  - terminology debate ongoing amid the global scientific ambit.  At some point, harder and hard snows become harder and harder mix ... eventually, cold rain. 

But something else is happening also.  The CC that doesn't exist while something simultaneously fucks up actual climate (  ) is also represented in morphology of storm tracks.  Storm behavior and morphology in and of themselves... Types and distribution.   Speed of the ambient winter hemispheres - there's a reason most commercial airliner air-land speed flight records have been set in the last 20 years, on west to east intercontinental transits, and it's not because the vehicles are necessarily better.  Any evolution of aeronautical design and power conversion mechanics via jet engine propulsion cannot account for taking off from Laguardia and landing at Heathrow in 3.5 hours... or whatever that was ( just 1 ex).  Anyway, all this shit effects how/if a storm snows too.   Think of it this way.  We have a front side dammed in cryogen airmass, but the storm is moving some 15% faster than past climo storm motion... But the evaporation and other physics remain constant - that means the the storm moves by and limits snow, but warms the column in time to clip with more mix to rain scenarios.  Just being a little creative here to exemplify the point...  But, that 1 in 10 storm that stays snow, yeah...snowed more than expected - for now. 

That's a queer choir you're preaching to.

[WinterSnow]

I'm in CT and where's the flipping rain? Seems like it's allergic to CT and wants to stay off to the west/northwest.

[weatherwiz]

interesting looking cell headed towards EWR

[weatherwiz]

that actually may be a few scans away from a TOR

[kdxken]

 

[Mr. Windcredible!]

Is this the housefly support group? I too had a bunch inside last night...killed off 30-40 either by fly swatter or a bug light/zapper my wife had bought for by the firepit. Had some a few weeks ago, but nowhere near as many. Never issues in the past either other than a stray one here or there. 

I did discovered an outdoor swarm yesterday when I rolled by garbage can from the curb. Sure enough...maggots and quite the stench coming from the can. We don't store the garbage can near the house...but I figured maybe it had been a mistake to roll it over near the spigot to spray it down versus taking the hose further away from the house. Even still, not sure how they would've found their way inside so quickly, not as if windows were open, but seems hard to believe they weren't related. 

And just so I meet my quote for weather related content in this post...currently 81F & cloudy.

[weatherwiz]

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

that actually may be a few scans away from a TOR

there's the warning

[weatherwiz]

that cell is spitting CGs in the inflow notch haha. starting to looks like a Plains supercell 

[klw]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

The 8-week battle raging on here daily between two camps was what I was referencing, ha.  We'll call one the "blue team" and the other the "red team."

Who looks ridiculous now!

 

[CoastalWx]

Here comes our nrn NJ flood

[Damage In Tolland]

Flood watch to

Stein here. Missed lots of rain by a mile both morning and afternoon. Look at that 7/10 split 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Flood watch to

Stein here. Missed lots of rain by a mile both morning and afternoon. Look at that 7/10 split 

Hideous.  12K NAM nailed it.

[Spanks45]

57 minutes ago, WinterSnow said:

I'm in CT and where's the flipping rain? Seems like it's allergic to CT and wants to stay off to the west/northwest.

Yup, looks like we are going to be skunked around here. Im sure we will get some as the boundary drapes southward later on, but any convection is pretty much done for around here. Temps are dropping steadily over the past couple hours and the air has lost that muggy feel.

[Torch Tiger]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Flood watch to

Stein here. Missed lots of rain by a mile both morning and afternoon. Look at that 7/10 split 

no 7" of rain like some said would definitely occur? 

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Hideous.  12K NAM nailed it.

Glad this isnt winter and could have been snow.....would have been tough, lol

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Yup, looks like we are going to be skunked around here. Im sure we will get some as the boundary drapes southward later on, but any convection is pretty much done for around here. Temps are dropping steadily over the past couple hours and the air has lost that muggy feel.

with the front south of us, I should have known better.   Down to 79 here with NE winds

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Hideous.  12K NAM nailed it.

Morning HRRR too . Lawn is toast. I dropped fert last Friday and it literally stopped raining here with like .12 since 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

with the front south of us, I should have known better.   Down to 79 here with NE winds

You want it to be just south for the heavy rains. But not too far south. That cooler air provides a dome for the warmer and more humid air to ride up and over.

[Damage In Tolland]

I just checked stations in town online. 2 miles NW of me had .65 today. I have .01

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

You want it to be just south for the heavy rains. But not too far south. That cooler air provides a dome for the warmer and more humid air to ride up and over.

Stein can ride up and over this

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I just checked stations in town online. 2 miles NW of me had .65 today. I have .01

He moves in mysterious ways