July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

22 hours ago, kdxken said:

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 6z GFS  

Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  

centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on  

Day 11

Good indication on models for bn/n temps with manageable dews to kick off Aug. 

[kdxken]

And just like that Ditty's hopes for the hottest summer evah vanish like a Ginxy pipe dream.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

The humid humpers may just loose their shit if they look at the LR objectively. Luckily for them, we just don’t know yet.

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is fun ...

check out the N Hemisphere rendering at 360 hours by the the GFS ( oper) left vs the ECMWF right. 

It's like +2 SD   AO   vs   -2 SD  AO      Yet both try to make it cold here 

 

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

I saw this the other day. While I am extremely skeptical with the AI stuff and the movement with AI within the field, this is something I think is worst investing resources in regarding AI...short-term/nowcasting, not medium-range. I think there is tremendous potential in this regard when it comes to improving lead times with severe weather and flash flooding. 

Glad you threw in there the caveat too...that is something that should definitely be made aware and realized by everyone reading the study. 

But I am excited for this. 

Why the skepticism?  Even at ECMWF, they say the AIFS beats the ECMWF in the majority of cases.  They do feel that the physics-based models are better at handling the extreme events, which makes sense, in that extreme events have little historical precedent.  It would seem that a combination of the two is the best approach now, but I would look for AI to become the go-to soon.  Then comes quantum computing, ha ha!

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

 

Why the skepticism?  Even at ECMWF, they say the AIFS beats the ECMWF in the majority of cases.  They do feel that the physics-based models are better at handling the extreme events, which makes sense, in that extreme events have little historical precedent.  It would seem that a combination of the two is the best approach now, but I would look for AI to become the go-to soon.  Then comes quantum computing, ha ha!

I want to start putting more time aside to research this further, but the one question I have right now is, what is the run-to-run consistency of the AIFS (and other AI models)? If the run-to-run consistency is there and its outperforming other guidance then that would be extremely noteworthy. 

But in terms of the extreme weather events, this is where we need to be developing "better forecasts" and improving communication skills. This is what is having a greater impact on human lives and decision making. Part of the challenges in this regard is the lower level of confidence that arises due to forecast model inconsistencies (whether that be run-to-run or model-to-model). Who cares if the AIFS is nailing a forecast high of 87 9 days out when the ECMWF maybe had 84 or 93. But to my post, this is where utilizing AI in the nowcast/short-term could have extreme benefits in extreme weather forecasting. 

Quantum computing is going to be a major game changer. 

[Torch Tiger]

19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The humid humpers may just loose their shit if they look at the LR objectively. Luckily for them, we just don’t know yet.

 

I've been on the cool train for at least a week or so, when models started flaunting the EC weaknesses with ease.  some models have more of a curved/rounded shitty looking L/W trough, some are more normal looking with embedded s/ws re-establishing the weakness and stalled sfc front.. 

I'd hedge towards a BN August, maybe some decent severe wx and also a cane hit/near-miss

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I want to start putting more time aside to research this further, but the one question I have right now is, what is the run-to-run consistency of the AIFS (and other AI models)? If the run-to-run consistency is there and its outperforming other guidance then that would be extremely noteworthy. 

But in terms of the extreme weather events, this is where we need to be developing "better forecasts" and improving communication skills. This is what is having a greater impact on human lives and decision making. Part of the challenges in this regard is the lower level of confidence that arises due to forecast model inconsistencies (whether that be run-to-run or model-to-model). Who cares if the AIFS is nailing a forecast high of 87 9 days out when the ECMWF maybe had 84 or 93. But to my post, this is where utilizing AI in the nowcast/short-term could have extreme benefits in extreme weather forecasting. 

Quantum computing is going to be a major game changer. 

It’s only going to get worse as more cuts are made by the corrupt authoritarian regime while continuing to deny CC. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

I've been on the cool train for at least a week or so, when models started flaunting the EC weaknesses with ease.  some models have more of a curved/rounded shitty looking L/W trough, some are more normal looking with embedded s/ws re-establishing the weakness and stalled front.. 

I'd hedge towards a BN August, maybe some decent severe wx and also a cane hit/near-miss

Yea. Agree. I’d still lean N or a tick AN just because that’s how we run it thesedays. 

[Torch Tiger]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. Agree. I’d still lean N or a tick AN just because that’s how we run it thesedays. 

Yeah I haven't looked at weaklies in a bit, if week 2-4 end up torchy that is something to consider, given it's easier to hit those higher departures in Aug

[weatherwiz]

Part of my skepticism with the AI stuff too is (and I'm not sure if this applies across all AI models because I'm sure there are different techniques and practices) the physics and chemistry is infinitely more complex then just training a model to produce a forecast based on historical measures. To my understanding, there are AI models in the works (like the google one) where there is very little involvement of calculus and physics equations and one of the reasons why it can process more quickly. If I am wrong on that - please let me know.

One of, if not, the biggest reasons why we see forecast models struggle at times is due to boundary layer initialization, errors which result from approximations when deriving equations, and errors from parameterization. AI isn't just going to fix or magically solve this alone. So when we're dealing with complex weather systems which have complex evolutions AI is going to do no better than other guidance and if anything, will only add to uncertainties because it's just another tool in the toolbox and you'll have people who probably side with the AI just because AI seems to be taking over and nobody wants to use critical thinking anymore. 

Until we are able to better understand, measure, and parameterize complex processes and evolution and further improve model resolution (vertical/horizontal) and introduce something like quantum computing which will have the resources needed to do this, AI isn't going to be the game changer we need when it comes to forecasting complex weather systems and extreme weather events.

Just my two cents. 

[dendrite]

Yeah I expect a continuation of what we’re in now. The ridge flexes and we get a shot of big heat ahead of the next digging shortwave…rinse repeat. Probably near to slightly AN the next couple weeks with many days of lower dews. 

[Damage In Tolland]

24 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah I expect a continuation of what we’re in now. The ridge flexes and we get a shot of big heat ahead of the next digging shortwave…rinse repeat. Probably near to slightly AN the next couple weeks with many days of lower dews. 

Yup exactly. These ACATT thinking BN all of Augdewst and cold shots seek absolutely cocked . I’ll disagree in many lower dew days though. I think we’ll see many high dew days with lower sprinkled in. 

[Typhoon Tip]

uh... not sure I was being skeptical of either solution.  I was just noting the differences - although I'm not sure the +AO connotes a cooler regime in New England, should a more GEFesque solution pervade, but I'll stop shy of really digging into that.  Both models (academically) suck giant donkey balls at that range so the whole bringing it up was just for muse. 

The teleconnection spread is neutral in scalar field values, neutral during a time of year when the correlations are not that great to begin with.  Which means, between that kind of vagueness, and these operational runs being diametrical in their implications, and the fact that they suck at that range anyway... 

it all means flip a coin.  anyone into the petty squabble between warm and cool is not taking any trophies for the time being.  Brian's probably right.   Go CC footprint and throw a few fronts through it.  Probably AN but not hugely so.  There may be a heat wave in Aug

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup exactly. Us AHHATT thinking AN all of Augdewst and big heat are absolutely drunk. We will keep drinking though and avoid all evidence to the contrary. 

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah I haven't looked at weaklies in a bit, if week 2-4 end up torchy that is something to consider, given it's easier to hit those higher departures in Aug

I would look for an AN second half to the month. 

[radarman]

What a couple days.  Longsleeves in the house this morning, low of 48.  Sun and 77 today, dark blue skies, bugs on vacay.

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I would look for an AN second half to the month. 

Yeah I was just looking at later month, majority of anomalies look near or AN

[radarman]

Just now, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah I was just looking at later month, majority of anomalies look near or AN

Perfect.  Aug 15th-Oct 1st might as well be AN.  Prime beach season.  Tickling 90 here and there is nbd. 

[Torch Tiger]

Euro weaklies beyond 8/11 are very warm.  hm

[Torch Tiger]

Just now, radarman said:

Perfect.  Aug 15th-Oct 1st might as well be AN.  Prime beach season.  Tickling 90 here and there is nbd. 

100% about beach season being later August into September, for so many reasons ( as you know) 

I'd prefer 90+ June right through September with few or no breaks though :p

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, radarman said:

What a couple days.  Longsleeves in the house this morning, low of 48.  Sun and 77 today, dark blue skies, bugs on vacay.

Sounds awful 

[powderfreak]

30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sounds awful 

Yeah blue skies, sunshine, no bugs and 77F does sound horrific.

How do we get through it?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

38 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah blue skies, sunshine, no bugs and 77F does sound horrific.

How do we get through it?

Drink and pray man…drink and pray.

[Damage In Tolland]

41 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah blue skies, sunshine, no bugs and 77F does sound horrific.

How do we get through it?

Smoke weed and watch Obama head to jail ? That’s what a few here will do . Most will enjoy the weather because it’s the only weather we’ve got 

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah I was just looking at later month, majority of anomalies look near or AN

by that time averages are going down so who cares if its a bit above   glad you've come to our side though 

[Torch Tiger]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

by that time averages are going down so who cares if its a bit above   glad you've come to our side though 

Sun angle creeping up soon...less than 5 months now!

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Smoke weed and watch Obama head to jail ? That’s what a few here will do . Most will enjoy the weather because it’s the only weather we’ve got 

lol what?

We do enjoy.  Right now we out here.  Will really miss the long daylight when this ends.  Will miss the 7:30-8:30pm dog walks.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 hours ago, dryslot said:

RIP Ozzy Osbourne........

See my link in the banter thread.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Possibly something @weatherwiz might be interested in.   I just had this video show up on my YouTube feed.  Not sure why.  
but a decent documentary on the 1995 Great Barrington MA tornado 

it just posted 5 days ago   Worth watching IMHO 

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

4 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Part of my skepticism with the AI stuff too is (and I'm not sure if this applies across all AI models because I'm sure there are different techniques and practices) the physics and chemistry is infinitely more complex then just training a model to produce a forecast based on historical measures. To my understanding, there are AI models in the works (like the google one) where there is very little involvement of calculus and physics equations and one of the reasons why it can process more quickly. If I am wrong on that - please let me know.

One of, if not, the biggest reasons why we see forecast models struggle at times is due to boundary layer initialization, errors which result from approximations when deriving equations, and errors from parameterization. AI isn't just going to fix or magically solve this alone. So when we're dealing with complex weather systems which have complex evolutions AI is going to do no better than other guidance and if anything, will only add to uncertainties because it's just another tool in the toolbox and you'll have people who probably side with the AI just because AI seems to be taking over and nobody wants to use critical thinking anymore. 

Until we are able to better understand, measure, and parameterize complex processes and evolution and further improve model resolution (vertical/horizontal) and introduce something like quantum computing which will have the resources needed to do this, AI isn't going to be the game changer we need when it comes to forecasting complex weather systems and extreme weather events.

Just my two cents. 

As I understand the AI models, they do initialize with the same data as the physical models....radiosonde, satellite, etc.  So they aren't completely "anti-physics".  The AI models already seem to be ahead of the physical models in many respects, although in my entirely empirical observation,  the physics models are still better within a few days.  A blend is indicated now, but I agree, quantum computing will change everything.