July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat

[weatherwiz]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

81.3 for a high here is upper 80s  got it 

What’s your elevation? 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

lol if everyone around you is AN then you are too. Your avg high is just lower. What are we even doing?

meh last few days haven't been maybe just above today

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

What’s your elevation? 

1,068

[weatherwiz]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

1,068

Well that explains the difference! Elevation and coastline will 99.9% of the time be cooler. Think of lapse rates. If you have higher elevations (say above 1000’) like ORH pushing 90 or into the lower 90’s…then you’re talking about some extreme heat region wide. For the most part days/nights have been above average. If 925/850 temperatures are above average and well above the  the entire region is above…maybe some locations are a bit less but that is more reflective of local climate versus large scale pattern and the large scale pattern holds more weight 

[dendrite]

ORH was 83° today…+3F. Yesterday was 81° (+1F). Like Scoot said…we need mank to go BN this time of year. It takes a miracle to do it with a cP airmass out of Canada now.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

ORH was 83° today…+3F. Yesterday was 81° (+1F). Like Scoot said…we need mank to go BN this time of year. It takes a miracle to do it with a cP airmass out of Canada now.

Your comment a few years back stuck with me. We melted all the permafrost up there and we simply have cold fronts of bore vs yore.

[weatherwiz]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Your comment a few years back stuck with me. We melted all the permafrost up there and we simply have cold fronts of bore vs yore.

Our cold fronts are essentially dewpoint fronts lol 

[dendrite]

Yup…ice slows warming. It sucks up a lot of heat trying to phase change. Keep losing all of that year to year up there (permafrost, glaciers, sea ice) and all of thermal energy goes into warming instead of melting. Our Canadian source region gets hotter and warmer earlier and now it’s practically cut off for weeks or over a month at a time in the heart of summer. Just some impotent fronts that give us dew downs or ooze in from the NE via a BD. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Yup…ice slows warming. It sucks up a lot of heat trying to phase change. Keep losing all of that year to year up there (permafrost, glaciers, sea ice) and all of thermal energy goes into warming instead of melting. Our Canadian source region gets hotter and warmer earlier and now it’s practically cut off for weeks or over a month at a time in the heart of summer. Just some impotent fronts that give us dew downs or ooze in from the NE via a BD. 

Really hadn’t thought about that. Runaway warmth…

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

but that would include overnight temps .. its not a hot pattern.. if it wasn't for overnight lows this month might average below by the time its finished

You can toss overnight lows all you want, but it’s why everyone in the SNE hills, NNE, mtns, ME coast is installing A/C these days compared to 10-15 years ago.

I get why folks often want to toss those temps once you’ve given into artificial cooling and are tucked soundly in bed next to the hum of a cooling source… but there’s been a “real feel” effect and you see it with every mini split or AC install that wasn’t there a decade ago.  People used to get through summer with windows open at night.

The warm mins have had a real societal impact.

[powderfreak]

Low of 70F… +15.

BTV hasn’t been below 77F tonight.

That’s a tough night if you don’t have A/C.

Nocturnal storms and clouds, and away from the cooler maritime air mass up this way.

[dendrite]

64.9°

I had to laugh at Watertown being almost 80° all night. West of the CRV is on fire. 

[kdxken]

13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

64.9°

I had to laugh at Watertown being almost 80° all night. West of the CRV is on fire. 

66° with a little misery mist. Yuck

[kdxken]

4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

You can toss overnight lows all you want, but it’s why everyone in the SNE hills, NNE, mtns, ME coast is installing A/C these days compared to 10-15 years ago.

I get why folks often want to toss those temps once you’ve given into artificial cooling and are tucked soundly in bed next to the hum of a cooling source… but there’s been a “real feel” effect and you see it with every mini split or AC install that wasn’t there a decade ago.  People used to get through summer with windows open at night.

The warm mins have had a real societal impact.

Probably a lot more that don't immediately come to mind too. Increased humidity likely leads to more mold, rotting of building materials and so on.

[kdxken]

9 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Post the dailies for Boston the last 5 days . Let us know 

 

[kdxken]

7 hours ago, dendrite said:

Good luck with that 18z 2m anomaly voodoo. 850s are AN.

Apparently the CPC doesn't see the torch. 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

All AN

[BrianW]

What a summer.. 

 

With strong Bermuda high in place, a S/SW flow will allow plenty of moisture to be sent our way. This combined with above normal high temperatures brings some potential for a heat wave, with heat index of 95-100 currently expected Wednesday and Thursday, and 100 to 105 for many spots on Thursday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***Key Points***

*While still some uncertainty, there is the potential for a heat wave to continue Wednesday through Friday for many areas with max heat index values between 95 and 100 (2-day Heat Advisory Criteria) for Wednesday and Friday and 100 to 105 possible for Thursday (1-day Heat Advisory criteria).

*Relatively active pattern with chances for several days of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

 

[BrianW]

33 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Probably a lot more that don't immediately come to mind too. Increased humidity likely leads to more mold, rotting of building materials and so on.

From Google AI. 

In the U.S., heat-related deaths have significantly increased in recent decades, with the number of deaths more than doubling from 1999 to 2023. In 2023 alone, over 2,300 deaths were attributed to heat, marking it as the deadliest year for heat-related fatalities. 

[dendrite]

24 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Apparently the CPC doesn't see the torch. 

 

The big ridging is moving out west. So like I said, we’ll threaten some mild downs at the end of that period if things hold. But I’d still lean a bit AN. 

[kdxken]

20 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The big ridging is moving out west. So like I said, we’ll threaten some mild downs at the end of that period if things hold. But I’d still lean a bit AN. 

As would I. Certainly not going to be freezing cold.

[BrianW]

6 minutes ago, kdxken said:

As would I. Certainly not going to be freezing cold.

Going to be many tropical like days in the woods...

 

[rimetree]

Nice clipper on the Euro next week. Misty and 64/64 here. Been a nice little break from heat. Actually haven't reached 80 since last Tuesday here.

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, rimetree said:

Nice clipper on the Euro next week. Misty and 64/64 here. Been a nice little break from heat. Actually haven't reached 80 since last Tuesday here.

Yeah I’ll sell that clipper 

[CoastalWx]

Last full week of July looks darn warm. Quick mild down next weekend. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Another gross, manky start to the day. 
hopefully we get some earlier sun. Makes all the difference 

[Torch Tiger]

clipper lol

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Another gross, manky start to the day. 
hopefully we get some earlier sun. Makes all the difference 

Sun broke out early here. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sun broke out early here. 

Yeah. Thinking by 10 or so here.  Yesterday the grossness continued until early afternoon.  

[TheClimateChanger]

3 hours ago, BrianW said:

What a summer.. 

 

With strong Bermuda high in place, a S/SW flow will allow plenty of moisture to be sent our way. This combined with above normal high temperatures brings some potential for a heat wave, with heat index of 95-100 currently expected Wednesday and Thursday, and 100 to 105 for many spots on Thursday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***Key Points***

*While still some uncertainty, there is the potential for a heat wave to continue Wednesday through Friday for many areas with max heat index values between 95 and 100 (2-day Heat Advisory Criteria) for Wednesday and Friday and 100 to 105 possible for Thursday (1-day Heat Advisory criteria).

*Relatively active pattern with chances for several days of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

 

Wow! Can't wait to see what this looks like at the end of the week. One thing I find odd the rankings in some of the biggest cities aren't as impressive: Boston (23), New York - Central Park (15), DC (11). The hottest anomalies seem to be in places where nobody lives, like Elkins and Clarksburg, W. Va. (both 1st place). The UHI theory would predict the opposite? Not sure what is going on there.

It seems some of these radiational cooling hotspots are just not radiating like they used. This very dense, vaporous atmosphere is wreaking havoc on overnight cooling. Much denser and vaporous than when I was a child.