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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat


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Just now, ineedsnow said:

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Well that explains the difference! Elevation and coastline will 99.9% of the time be cooler. Think of lapse rates. If you have higher elevations (say above 1000’) like ORH pushing 90 or into the lower 90’s…then you’re talking about some extreme heat region wide. For the most part days/nights have been above average. If 925/850 temperatures are above average and well above the  the entire region is above…maybe some locations are a bit less but that is more reflective of local climate versus large scale pattern and the large scale pattern holds more weight 

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

ORH was 83° today…+3F. Yesterday was 81° (+1F). Like Scoot said…we need mank to go BN this time of year. It takes a miracle to do it with a cP airmass out of Canada now.

Your comment a few years back stuck with me. We melted all the permafrost up there and we simply have cold fronts of bore vs yore.

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Yup…ice slows warming. It sucks up a lot of heat trying to phase change. Keep losing all of that year to year up there (permafrost, glaciers, sea ice) and all of thermal energy goes into warming instead of melting. Our Canadian source region gets hotter and warmer earlier and now it’s practically cut off for weeks or over a month at a time in the heart of summer. Just some impotent fronts that give us dew downs or ooze in from the NE via a BD. 

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Yup…ice slows warming. It sucks up a lot of heat trying to phase change. Keep losing all of that year to year up there (permafrost, glaciers, sea ice) and all of thermal energy goes into warming instead of melting. Our Canadian source region gets hotter and warmer earlier and now it’s practically cut off for weeks or over a month at a time in the heart of summer. Just some impotent fronts that give us dew downs or ooze in from the NE via a BD. 

Really hadn’t thought about that. Runaway warmth…

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2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

but that would include overnight temps .. its not a hot pattern.. if it wasn't for overnight lows this month might average below by the time its finished

You can toss overnight lows all you want, but it’s why everyone in the SNE hills, NNE, mtns, ME coast is installing A/C these days compared to 10-15 years ago.

I get why folks often want to toss those temps once you’ve given into artificial cooling and are tucked soundly in bed next to the hum of a cooling source… but there’s been a “real feel” effect and you see it with every mini split or AC install that wasn’t there a decade ago.  People used to get through summer with windows open at night.

The warm mins have had a real societal impact.

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4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

You can toss overnight lows all you want, but it’s why everyone in the SNE hills, NNE, mtns, ME coast is installing A/C these days compared to 10-15 years ago.

I get why folks often want to toss those temps once you’ve given into artificial cooling and are tucked soundly in bed next to the hum of a cooling source… but there’s been a “real feel” effect and you see it with every mini split or AC install that wasn’t there a decade ago.  People used to get through summer with windows open at night.

The warm mins have had a real societal impact.

Probably a lot more that don't immediately come to mind too. Increased humidity likely leads to more mold, rotting of building materials and so on.

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What a summer.. 

 

With strong Bermuda high in place, a S/SW flow will allow plenty of moisture to be sent our way. This combined with above normal high temperatures brings some potential for a heat wave, with heat index of 95-100 currently expected Wednesday and Thursday, and 100 to 105 for many spots on Thursday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
***Key Points***

*While still some uncertainty, there is the potential for a heat wave to continue Wednesday through Friday for many areas with max heat index values between 95 and 100 (2-day Heat Advisory Criteria) for Wednesday and Friday and 100 to 105 possible for Thursday (1-day Heat Advisory criteria).

*Relatively active pattern with chances for several days of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

 

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33 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Probably a lot more that don't immediately come to mind too. Increased humidity likely leads to more mold, rotting of building materials and so on.

From Google AI. 

In the U.S., heat-related deaths have significantly increased in recent decades, with the number of deaths more than doubling from 1999 to 2023. In 2023 alone, over 2,300 deaths were attributed to heat, marking it as the deadliest year for heat-related fatalities. 

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24 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Apparently the CPC doesn't see the torch. 

 

Screenshot_20250712_200127_Chrome.jpg

The big ridging is moving out west. So like I said, we’ll threaten some mild downs at the end of that period if things hold. But I’d still lean a bit AN. 

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20 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The big ridging is moving out west. So like I said, we’ll threaten some mild downs at the end of that period if things hold. But I’d still lean a bit AN. 

As would I. Certainly not going to be freezing cold.

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