July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[Sundog]

Still 89/74 where I am and it feels like crap out. 

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I was informed that there are I.T. issues. They are being worked on.

amazing they cant measure between hours - seems rudimentary.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

2022 from my recollection    https://www.fox29.com/news/atlantic-ocean-sets-records-for-warmth-down-at-the-jersey-shore?utm_source=chatgpt.com and 2016  https://www.cbsnews.com/philadelphia/news/jersey-shore-ocean-record-warm/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Excellent article Tony!  Reading this makes me think we need both very hot westerly winds AND onshore flow.  First the very hot westerly winds for several days to create a long heatwave even though the offshore flow causes upwelling here it heats up the ocean further offshore.  And then an onshore flow to bring that heated ocean surface closer to shore?

 

It's so warm, it set a record in Atlantic City, where the water temperature soared to the mid-80s on Thursday and early Friday. This weekend, your Weather Authority says to plan for ocean water in the upper 70s.

The water is much, much warmer for a few reasons.

South and east of our shores, the Atlantic Ocean has been much warmer than average for a while.

 

Usually, 80-degree ocean water stops around the Outer Banks in North Carolina. But lately, it has extended much farther north.

But our shores have not been able to tap into that warm water because of our air flow. Winds have been coming down from the north or blowing along the coastline a lot this summer. That airflow pushes the top layer of sun-warmed ocean water away from our beaches. When it's pushed away, colder non sun-warmed water comes up to take its place. 

 

If you want to learn more, that process is called upwelling, and that's what kept the ocean water chilly this summer in the 60s.

Even though there were a few days in July and early August when the water soared into the 70s, it didn't last. Well, that is, until mid-August.

The 10-day stretch of 90s earlier this month led to water warming up at deeper depths. Then, this week, ocean currents brought that 80-degree water even closer to our shores.

What got the 80s here were the airflow winds that started coming up from the south. This created an on-shore airflow that helped push that pool of 80-degree water right to our shores.

That super warm water is also pretty warm deep below its surface. So, as the warmest top water gets pushed toward us, warm water comes up to take its place. This is what will keep our ocean water nice and warm in the 70s this weekend.

Highs in the 90s are also helping. In and around Philly will stay in the 90s through Wednesday. Down the shore, we're in the mid 80s this weekend says your Weather Authority.

Late next week, our air flow will shift again, which will start pushing away some of that warmer water. Expect water temperatures in the lower 70s next weekend.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

amazing they cant measure between hours - seems rudimentary.

There is a way to do it, simply look at the thermometer and jot down the temperature.  I did this during the summer of 1993 almost every day during that big 10 day heatwave lol.

 

[SACRUS]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

There is a way to do it, simply look at the thermometer and jot down the temperature.  I did this during the summer of 1993 almost every day during that big 10 day heatwave lol.

 

 

Could have some of those 89 degree days miss an intra hour 90 or higher and vice versa in the winter at a important/critical station.  They should make the station dynamic and update in real time like the New Brunswick station.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

2022 from my recollection    https://www.fox29.com/news/atlantic-ocean-sets-records-for-warmth-down-at-the-jersey-shore?utm_source=chatgpt.com and 2016  https://www.cbsnews.com/philadelphia/news/jersey-shore-ocean-record-warm/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Looks like July 2011 was also very hot-- it seems like the hottest SST happen in months that have extended extreme heatwaves with westerly flow followed by onshore flow that brings the heated waters that are offshore because of that westerly flow back closer to the beaches when the onshore flow kicks in.

ATLANTIC CITY, N.J. (CBS) - The ocean water temperature this week is in the record books.

Wednesday's 83-degree measurement at the Atlantic City Marina (the National Weather Service puts the exact temperature at 83.3 degrees) broke the warmest-ever mark of 83.1 degrees, set in July 2011.

You don't even have to dip a toe in the water to feel its heat:

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

Could have some of those 89 degree days miss an intra hour 90 or higher and vice versa in the winter at a important/critical station.  They should make the station dynamic and update in real time like the New Brunswick station.

Yes it shouldn't be that hard to do, many of the personal weather stations on wunderground update every 5-10 seconds.

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/obs.shtml?lat=40.029360&lon=-73.805139&zoom=7&type=oceans&status=r&pgm=&op=&ls=n

[psv88]

41 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Still 89/74 where I am and it feels like crap out. 

Still 87/74. Insane for Suffolk county this late 

[WestBabylonWeather]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Still 87/74. Insane for Suffolk county this late 

87/76 real feel 98 right now after 9pm lol 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

The ridiculous dews are slowing the temp drop. Welcome to the jungle!

[lee59]

89 degrees after a late afternoon high of 92. This is one of the warmest nights I have seen in this area. Only the strong breeze makes it tolerable.

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The ridiculous dews are slowing the temp drop. Welcome to the jungle!

I have two spiders trying to steal the mail right out of my mailbox.

I hate big bug weather

[psv88]

28 minutes ago, lee59 said:

89 degrees after a late afternoon high of 92. This is one of the warmest nights I have seen in this area. Only the strong breeze makes it tolerable.

I’ve never seen this before. It’s warmer on Long Island than anywhere in Florida or the Deep South states 

[TWCCraig]

Still 87, but my dew point is down to 75 from the upper 70s earlier.

Long Island doesn't cool down on a westerly wind, thats why temps havent dropped, and gone up in some spots like here

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, TWCCraig said:

Still 87, but my dew point is down to 75 from the upper 70s earlier.

Long Island doesn't cool down on a westerly wind

it wasnt actually very hot today, it's just that it's not cooling down like it usually does in the evening-- it's all that damn humidity

[SnoSki14]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

it wasnt actually very hot today, it's just that it's not cooling down like it usually does in the evening-- it's all that damn humidity

Low to mid 90s with mid to upper 70 dews is very hot and uncomfortable 

[TWCCraig]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it wasnt actually very hot today, it's just that it's not cooling down like it usually does in the evening-- it's all that damn humidity

Like I said my dew point dropped, I had a higher dew point this time yesterday but tonight there's a westerly wind here so my temp shot up

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Low to mid 90s with mid to upper 70 dews is very hot and uncomfortable 

it's absolutely horrendous but not in the top 3 hottest days of the summer.  That day last week was worse.  This morning up until early afternoon (around 1 PM) it wasn't bad.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

Like I said my dew point dropped, I had a higher dew point this time yesterday but tonight there's a westerly wind here now so my temp shot up

it got uncomfortable starting around 2-- I actually thought we might not hit 90 with all the dark overcast around all morning and even early this afternoon.

[jm1220]

10pm and still 90 at JFK, 99 heat index. Downslope W flow and still humid. Tomorrow can't come fast enough.

[Intensewind002]

88/73 still as of 10:30 pm here in Lindenhurst 

[happyclam13]

Dew points dropping quickly now

[Snowlover11]

feels nice outside.

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It makes me wonder what actually caused those marine heatwaves out there? Was the land that hot that it caused the ocean to also heat up so quickly, or did the oceanic currents somehow change to create a feedback effect to make long lasting marine heatwaves?  Japan is on the western side of the Pacific and since we're on the western side of the Atlantic, I feel like a similar thing could happen here one day.

 

The marine heatwaves were caused by the record 500mb ridge stalling in place creating clear skies and light winds allowing the seas to rapidly warm below.

[winterwarlock]

What happened to the sunny Saturday we are suppose to have

 

Cruddy beach weekends roll on

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

What happened to the sunny Saturday we are suppose to have

 

Cruddy beach weekends roll on

Pattern persistence. So we get cooler and more clouds during the weekend with shower or drizzle chances. The best beach days have been during the week especially for the heat like we just experienced last few days. The next heatwave with 95° to 100° potential will be next Thursday and Friday. Models showing cooler and showers clouds chances again for next weekend also. Gets back to the stuck weather patterns which have become so common over the last decade.

[SACRUS]

 

76 / 64 and mostly cloudy.  Partly cloudy forecasts look optimistic.   Cooler / drier  - likely a break in the 3/4 day heatwave for many, enough sun could get the hottest spots inland there but it looks cloudy.   Weekend looks 50/50 - cloudy and scattered storms Saturday warm / humid with a drying out Sunday by the afternoon.   Enough Sun on Sun gets the hottest spots to 90.  Drier 2-3 days - cooler Mon - Wed before ridge builds heights and heat expands east by the 24/25th, with potential strong heat later next week / weekend.  Overall warm - hot / humid beyond there and likely wetter again with ridge building to our west.

 

7/18 - 7/20 :   Warm - Storms chances Saturday, Drying out Sunday / clearing
7/21 - 7/23 :   Cooler / Drier
7/24 - 7/30:  Hotter / Humid wetter - potential stronger heat 25-27

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it wasnt actually very hot today, it's just that it's not cooling down like it usually does in the evening-- it's all that damn humidity

The 90° reading for JFK at 10pm was pretty impressive. The all-time 10pm record high at JFK was 95° set back on July 5th 1999. So anytime we are near 90° this late into the evening people notice since it close to the record values. This allowed the record low max at ISP set earlier in the day to hold. A 79° low for anywhere in Suffolk County is very impressive. You can see it beat the previous record by +4°. The warmest low max ever at ISP was 81°.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
316 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025

...RECORD DAILY HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY 79 DEGREES THURSDAY, JULY 17 AT ISLIP
MACARTHUR AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM OF 75
DEGREES, LAST SET IN 2021. RECORDS FOR THE ISLIP NY AREA GO BACK TO
1963.

ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI).

[SACRUS]

 

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 104 (2012)
NYC: 101 (1953)
LGA: 101 (2012)
JFK: 100 (2013)
New Brnswick: 100 (1905)


Lows:

EWR: 58 (1946)
NYC: 57 (1925)
LGA: 62 (1962)
JFK: 58 (1962)
New Brnswick: 53 (1925)


Historical:

 

1889 - A cloudburst in West Virginia along the small creeks in Wirt County, Jackson County and Wood County claimed twenty lives. Rockport, WV, reported nineteen inches of rain in two hours and ten minutes that Thursday evening. Tygart Creek rose 22 feet in one hour, and villages were swept away on Tygart, Slate, Tucker, and Sandy Creeks. (The Weather Channel)

1936 - The all time record high temperature for the state of Kansas was set when a 121-degree high temperature fried Fredonia. (US National Weather Service Wichita)

1936: This day marked the end of the hottest period on record for La Crosse, WI. From the 5th through the 18th, temperatures climbed to 90° or better everyday, and at or above 100° eight times. During this time six record temperatures were set and the average high temperatures for the period was 101.0°.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1942: A record deluge occurred at Smethport in northern Pennsylvania, with 30.7 inches in just six hours. The downpours and resultant flooding in Pennsylvania were devastating. The following U.S. records were set at Smethport, PA: rainfall in three hours: 28.50 inches, rainfall in 4 hours and 30 minutes: 30.70 inches and 12-hour rainfall: 34.30 inches.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1942 - A record deluge occurred at Smethport in northern Pennsylvania, with 30.7 inches in just six hours. The downpours and resultant flooding in Pennsylvania were devastating. (David Ludlum)


1970: A tropical depression formed east of the Yucatan Peninsula. As the system developed into Tropical Storm Becky, it provided National Hurricane Center forecasters their first opportunity to study the evolution of a tropical cyclone with the aid of time-lapse movies of ATS (Applications Technology Satellite) photographs in real time, or, The Movie Loop. Becky moved into the Florida panhandle as a tropical storm. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1972: Heavy rain, unofficially measured at 10 to 11 inches, fell in the Mooreland and Mutual areas of Woodward County Oklahoma. The heavy rain caused severe soil erosion, but crop damage was minimal, as wheat already had been harvested. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1986 - One of the most photo-genic tornadoes touched down in the northern suburbs of Minneapolis, MN, during the late afternoon. The very slow moving tornado actually appeared live on the evening news by way of an aerial video taken by the KARE-TV helicopter crew. The tornado, unlike most, was quite the prima donna, staying visible to tens of thousands of persons for thirty minutes. It was moderate in intensity, with winds of 113-157 mph, and caused 650 thousand dollars damage. (Storm Data)

1987 - Cool weather prevailed in the western U.S. Seven cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Alamosa, CO, with a reading of 38 degrees. The low of 52 degrees at Bakersfield, CA, was a record for July. Up to eight inches of snow covered the Northern Sierra Nevada Range of California from a storm the previous day. During that storm, winds gusting to 52 mph at Slide Mountain, NV, produced a wind chill reading of 20 degrees below zero. Susanville, CA, reached 17 degrees that previous day, Blue Canyon, CA, dipped to a July record of 36 degrees, and the high of 44 degrees at Klamath Falls, OR, smashed their previous record for July by ten degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Sweltering heat continued in California, with record highs of 111 degrees at Redding and 112 degrees at Sacramento. Death Valley, CA, hit 127 degrees. Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms in the Central Plains Region produced baseball size hail at Kimball, NE, wind gusts to 79 mph at Colby, KS, and six inches of rain near Lexington, NE. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Oklahoma, northern Texas and Arkansas during the afternoon, and into the night. Thunderstorms produced baseball size hail at Stamford, TX, and wind gusts to 92 mph near Throckmorton, TX. Record heat continued in the southwestern U.S. Phoenix AZ reported a record high of 115 degrees, and a 111 degree reading at Midland, TX, was second only to their all-time record high of 112 degrees established sixteen days earlier. (The National Weather Summary)

1992: On this date through the 18th, Thunderstorms crossed Wayne County in western New York State dumping heavy rains over already saturated grounds and swollen streams. Rainfall amounts exceeded six inches in two hours on the 17th. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1993: In south central Kansas, heavy rains in and around Stafford County caused flooding of the normally dry Antelope Creek. Flooding of roads and streets began in Radium during the morning hours. The flooding continued until the morning hours on the 19th. This was the worst flooding in Radium since the spring of 1973. Flooding continued until about 9 am on the 19th. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1996: An F5 tornado struck Oakfield, WI during the evening, injuring 17 people and destroying 47 of the 320 homes in the town. Damage estimates totaled over $40 million dollars. In addition, 56 homes as well as numerous businesses and churches sustained heavy damage. A massive rainstorm in north central and northeast Illinois led to widespread flooding. Aurora reported 16.91 inches of rain, establishing a state record for the most rain in a single day. Other heavy totals included 13.60 inches at Joliet, 9.24 inches in Wheaton, 8.09 inches in DeKalb, and 7.82 inches at Elgin.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1997: Hurricane warnings were posted along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Alabama as Hurricane Danny headed toward shore, first brushing southeastern Louisiana where tropical storm force winds and high tides caused severe erosion. Grand Isle, LA recorded a wind gust to 95 mph shortly before midnight. 100 mph winds and torrential rains, downed power lines, damaged or sunk boats and left flooding in its wake.
Thunderstorms developed ahead of a strong cold front and brought high winds and large hail to the western southern tier, Niagara frontier and Genesee Valley in western New York State. A 74 mph gust was recorded in Orchard Park. Hail, as large as golf balls, damaged crops in Niagara and Orleans counties. Several fires were reported as a result of lightning strikes. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2003: Miles City, MT set their all-time high temperature record with 113°. Highs of 100° or higher occurred 6 times between the 12th through the 19th. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) .

2008: A man and a woman went outside a home in Standish, ME to get a pair of sunglasses the family dog had taken from 1 of the 3 young children inside. Unfortunately, lightning hit a nearby tree, then traveled through the ground, killing both people. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

2010: Thunderstorm winds gusted to 72 mph at BWI late evening on 18th. Ref. July PRESTO Page 1