July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

whats causing all the stalled fronts and cloudy weather in July which we did not have in the 90s especially?

 

More onshore flow due to the rising 500mb heights to the north and east of New England since around 2018. Those older summers had higher 500mb heights over the Great Lakes. So we would get more persistent westerly flow during those summers.
 

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The first 10 days of July have been very warm across the New York City area. 

New York City-Central Park: 79.0° (27th warmest)
New York City-JFK Airport: 79.7° (8th warmest)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 81.0° (11th warmest)
Newark: 82.2° (7th warmest)

Mean monthly temperatures for cases with July 1-10 mean temperatures at or above the 2025 figures ere as follows:

New York City-Central Park: 78.8° 
New York City-JFK Airport: 78.4° 
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 81.1° (8th warmest)
Newark: 80.8°

Warm weather will continue through the weekend with temperatures reaching mainly the lower and middle 80s through the weekend. 

Some of the guidance suggests that another round of heat could develop early next week with temperatures returning to the upper 80s and perhaps lower 90s.

No widespread and sustained excessive heat appears likely through mid-July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +16.68 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.962 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.0° (1.5° above normal). 

 

Interesting how JFK is running 0.7 degrees hotter than NYC.

By the way today and tomorrow are Manhattanhenge days!!

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

More onshore flow due to the rising 500mb heights to the north and east of New England since around 2018. Those older summers had higher 500mb heights over the Great Lakes. So we would get more persistent westerly flow during those summers.
 

 

 

 

Yes and much better weather, sunnier, less humid, etc.

We were lucky to get four summers in a row like that from 2010-2013

By the way, you left out 1980, 1991 and 2002, those were some dry and hot summers too!!!

Could also add in 1944, 1948, 1949 and 1953 although that's before my time lol.

 

[Wannabehippie]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

IMO, it does a good job providing an overview of one of the major consequences of humanity's collective choice to continue to dump greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. I believe that Matt Luongo, one of the climate scientists on the interview, said it correctly when he stated that it is "a political and social decision on how much we want to not emit CO2." I believe a combination of motivated reasoning, cognitive psychological biases, limited leadership capacity, and structural realities of complex societies (built on a status quo foundation, poor capacity to make rapid changes due to the complex relationships involved, etc.) have shaped humanity's collective decision. 

There is some debate over whether the AMOC will completely break down or merely slow. In one recent surprise, scientists found that the SMOC (southern meridional overturning circulation off Antarctica has actually reversed. That outcome could lead to the oceans releasing some of the CO2 that they have absorbed. Moreover, because the ocean and atmosphere is coupled, the changes related to ocean currents have synoptic implications. The rapid warming of the Western Pacific Ocean's negative PDO-type circulation that is enhancing drought in the Southwest is one example. 

 

I am looking forward to the next in this series of podcasts that they are putting out this summer. Very informative.

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes and much better weather, sunnier, less humid, etc.

We were lucky to get four summers in a row like that from 2010-2013

By the way, you left out 1980, 1991 and 2002, those were some dry and hot summers too!!!

Could also add in 1944, 1948, 1949 and 1953 although that's before my time lol.

 

The reason the 1995 summer was so humid with the nearly 130° heat index around 7-15 was due to corn sweat pooling under the inversion and getting transported to the East Coast.

[donsutherland1]

45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Interesting how JFK is running 0.7 degrees hotter than NYC.

By the way today and tomorrow are Manhattanhenge days!!

 

JFK has been warmer than Central Park on a number of occasions in July. The last such time was 2009 (JFK: 73.68° and Central Park: 73.66°) The largest difference was 0.3° in 1969 (JFK: 75.0° and Central Park: 74.7°). It's only happened during cool July cases. 2025 would be the first very warm July case where JFK was warmer.

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The Polynesian civilization prior to the arrival of Europeans in the early 18th century. 

I suspect that today’s teens will be among the leading edge of a generation or generations that won’t view fossil fuels as indispensable and will see the vast planet-scale harm they have inflicted and then will move aggressively to curb their burning, even if the short-term effect is disruptive.They won’t believe the past generations who propped up the fossil fuels-centric society have the standing to object, much less complain about disruptions. After all, had they pursued a very gradual phaseout, the warming would have been limited and the societal burden on the younger generations would have been much less than that which they will inherit. 

I'm very gung ho on switching to clean energy, but I don't think we'd even be in a position to DO the switch and have as advanced a civilization as we currently have if it wasn't for fossil fuels to begin with. 

I'm also very skeptical of any plans that clean energy advocates have that involve delaying the switch over for less advanced countries and that are anti nuclear. 

Since the technology exists today for EVERY country to switch over, then we should all do so. The Earth doesn't care where pollution comes from or how many years a particular nation has been industrialized. 

And any solution that doesn't involve expanded nuclear is not a serious one. 

 

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I'm very gung ho on switching to clean energy, but I don't think we'd even be in a position to DO the switch and have as advanced a civilization as we currently have if it wasn't for fossil fuels to begin with. 

I'm also very skeptical of any plans that clean energy advocates have that involve delaying the switch over for less advanced countries and that are anti nuclear. 

Since the technology exists today for EVERY country to switch over, then we should all do so. The Earth doesn't care where pollution comes from or how many years a particular nation has been industrialized. 

And any solution that doesn't involve expanded nuclear is not a serious one. 

 

I suspect that had society gone down the very gradual path of phaseout beginning around 1995-2000 when the issue first gained clarity, considerable progress could have been made. Had society pursued the effort along the lines of a Manhattan or Apollo Project, I suspect substantial and rapid progress would have occurred. Those pathways were foregone.

I do agree that nuclear power is part of the solution. I'd also like to see a really aggressive R&D project into fusion, as it offers the greatest potential in the medium- and long-term. 

[Dark Star]

43 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I'm very gung ho on switching to clean energy, but I don't think we'd even be in a position to DO the switch and have as advanced a civilization as we currently have if it wasn't for fossil fuels to begin with. 

I'm also very skeptical of any plans that clean energy advocates have that involve delaying the switch over for less advanced countries and that are anti nuclear. 

Since the technology exists today for EVERY country to switch over, then we should all do so. The Earth doesn't care where pollution comes from or how many years a particular nation has been industrialized. 

And any solution that doesn't involve expanded nuclear is not a serious one. 

 

Unfortunately, the world is still dangerous.  Technology has outpaced the advancement of human nature.  Though we wish to see a utopian world, it cannot be achieved until we are ALL ready...

[psv88]

82 today. Let’s bring on a beautiful weekend 

[Wannabehippie]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The Polynesian civilization prior to the arrival of Europeans in the early 18th century. 

I suspect that today’s teens will be among the leading edge of a generation or generations that won’t view fossil fuels as indispensable and will see the vast planet-scale harm they have inflicted and then will move aggressively to curb their burning, even if the short-term effect is disruptive.They won’t believe the past generations who propped up the fossil fuels-centric society have the standing to object, much less complain about disruptions. After all, had they pursued a very gradual phaseout, the warming would have been limited and the societal burden on the younger generations would have been much less than that which they will inherit. 

Gen Alpha are entering HS in the fall. I was hoping we would have this fixed by now, but here we are.

 

[Wannabehippie]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

I'm very gung ho on switching to clean energy, but I don't think we'd even be in a position to DO the switch and have as advanced a civilization as we currently have if it wasn't for fossil fuels to begin with. 

I'm also very skeptical of any plans that clean energy advocates have that involve delaying the switch over for less advanced countries and that are anti nuclear. 

Since the technology exists today for EVERY country to switch over, then we should all do so. The Earth doesn't care where pollution comes from or how many years a particular nation has been industrialized. 

And any solution that doesn't involve expanded nuclear is not a serious one. 

 

I feel like we are getting close to plasma and fusion energy. In the mean time we should be investing in the next generation nuclear fission plants, especially with What are Small Modular Reactors. Lower in cost. Can be built off site in a factory/assembly line type setting, lowering costs greatly.
If the US, China, and India get on board with SMRs, and get them built out to replace fossil fuel plants, we can take a big chunk out of what is causing CO2 levels to rise.

 

 

https://interestingengineering.com/energy/iter-nuclear-fusion-boron-plasma
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/what-are-small-modular-reactors-smrs

[psv88]

21 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

I feel like we are getting close to plasma and fusion energy. In the mean time we should be investing in the next generation nuclear fission plants, especially with What are Small Modular Reactors. Lower in cost. Can be built off site in a factory/assembly line type setting, lowering costs greatly.
If the US, China, and India get on board with SMRs, and get them built out to replace fossil fuel plants, we can take a big chunk out of what is causing CO2 levels to rise.

 

 

https://interestingengineering.com/energy/iter-nuclear-fusion-boron-plasma
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/what-are-small-modular-reactors-smrs

We are now investing in coal again. Good luck!

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

82 today. Let’s bring on a beautiful weekend 

First evening all week I wasn’t a sweaty mess after a 45 minute walk outside. 

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

Gen Alpha are entering HS in the fall. I was hoping we would have this fixed by now, but here we are.

 

I hate to say but it’ll likely take a series of horrendous disasters or deadly heat waves in places where they shouldn’t like in Europe, the Northeast or Northwest before people will care enough to make it a top issue to demand change. People mostly believe it to be real but not serious enough to demand that politicians make policy/legislative changes or they will be bounced out of office. And with the advent of AI and various social media like TikTok that can easily spew propaganda garbage, I’m even more pessimistic. I was in college when Obama was elected and I remember so much optimism that millennials will be the generation that finally drives the change. I’ll believe any of it when I see it. I think it will finally be the markets one day driving it where renewables and nuclear will be an economically better option. 

[SACRUS]

Highs:


PHL: 90
TEB: 88
TTN: 88
EWR: 87
New Brnswck: 86
LGA: 85
NYC: 84
ACY: 84
JFK: 82
BLM: 80
ISP: 79

[nycwinter]

9 hours ago, psv88 said:

82 today. Let’s bring on a beautiful weekend 

 you find high dewpoints beautiful whatever floats your boat...

[nycwinter]

6 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I hate to say but it’ll likely take a series of horrendous disasters or deadly heat waves in places where they shouldn’t like in Europe, the Northeast or Northwest before people will care enough to make it a top issue to demand change. People mostly believe it to be real but not serious enough to demand that politicians make policy/legislative changes or they will be bounced out of office. And with the advent of AI and various social media like TikTok that can easily spew propaganda garbage, I’m even more pessimistic. I was in college when Obama was elected and I remember so much optimism that millennials will be the generation that finally drives the change. I’ll believe any of it when I see it. I think it will finally be the markets one day driving it where renewables and nuclear will be an economically better option. 

back in the 1970's and early 1980's or even earlier the us had deadly heat waves that killed hundreds before widespread ac became common.. europeans will have to become use to getting ac..

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I hate to say but it’ll likely take a series of horrendous disasters or deadly heat waves in places where they shouldn’t like in Europe, the Northeast or Northwest before people will care enough to make it a top issue to demand change. People mostly believe it to be real but not serious enough to demand that politicians make policy/legislative changes or they will be bounced out of office. And with the advent of AI and various social media like TikTok that can easily spew propaganda garbage, I’m even more pessimistic. I was in college when Obama was elected and I remember so much optimism that millennials will be the generation that finally drives the change. I’ll believe any of it when I see it. I think it will finally be the markets one day driving it where renewables and nuclear will be an economically better option. 

While our summers here have become much warmer since 2010, at least they aren’t warming at the rate that Western Europe is. 
 

 

[Sundog]

8 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I hate to say but it’ll likely take a series of horrendous disasters or deadly heat waves in places where they shouldn’t like in Europe, the Northeast or Northwest before people will care enough to make it a top issue to demand change. People mostly believe it to be real but not serious enough to demand that politicians make policy/legislative changes or they will be bounced out of office. And with the advent of AI and various social media like TikTok that can easily spew propaganda garbage, I’m even more pessimistic. I was in college when Obama was elected and I remember so much optimism that millennials will be the generation that finally drives the change. I’ll believe any of it when I see it. I think it will finally be the markets one day driving it where renewables and nuclear will be an economically better option. 

I think many times people in the US have a level of self centered-ness. 

The USA is only responsible for like 10% of global emissions. 

The US can be completely greenhouse gas neutral tomorrow and the problem would have barely changed. 

A billion people still go to the bathroom in the fields, a few billion more don't have clean water to drink. They're not interested in nor care about climate change.

[nycwinter]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

While our summers here have become much warmer since 2010, at least they aren’t warming at the rate that Western Europe is. 
 

 

i thought the amoc was slowing down  if that continues and it stops would that not mean a colder europe in the future?

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

While our summers here have become much warmer since 2010, at least they aren’t warming at the rate that Western Europe is. 
 

 

What's truly mind-blowing is that in only 50 years temperatures have increased by that much whereas they've been mostly stable for 10s of 1000s of years prior to that. 

[forkyfork]

societal breakdown is the only way climate change will be stopped

[forkyfork]

[SACRUS]

 

82 / 71 partly cloudy  - sun poking through.  Warm/humid the next few days mostly 80s- hotter inland spots away from sea breeze may make it to 90  Scattered storms Sun late and more Monday.  Hot/humid week ahead and overall hotter into the beyond.

 

7/12 - 7/14: Warm / humid storms rain focus in Monday
7/15 - 7/18 : Hotter / humid.
7/19 - Beyond :  Hot / humid  wetter overall