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June 2025 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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adam038:
I’m definitely curious as to what Tuesday’s high will be at ORH. If I’m not mistaken, 96 is the highest temp at the airport since that 99 degree high in 1953?

 

That's accurate according to my records.  From 1948 (1st year of record) thru 1953, they hit 97, 98(2) and then 99 on 9/2/53.  Not many sites have their all-time hottest in Sept.  (Only 27 years here, but 9/9/02 hit 93 and is tied with 7/3/02 for our hottest here.)  They've reached 96 five times, in '52, '75, '88, 2010 and 2022.

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This sounds remarkably similar to the environmental circumstances within which we had that severe event here 2 weeks ago.. Same time of day... seemingly nil SBCAPE ...  but a pocket of EML was tapped by a small cell that then nuked

Although surface based instability progs at that time of day are
essentially nil, steepening lapse rates aloft support nearly
1500 J/kg of MUCAPE with increasing effective shear to around
40-45 kt, a shear/instability space which could support embedded
elevated supercells above more stable sfc layer.
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Marginal…for now…very interesting nowcast coming up. 

Northeast...
   A somewhat complex severe weather scenario exists for the Northeast,
   from Sunday morning into the afternoon hours. Scattered strong
   thunderstorms (perhaps a remnant MCS) may cross from southeastern
   Ontario and progress toward the Hudson Valley region during the
   morning. Should this occur, convective restrengthening is possible
   along the leading edge of outflow over the Mid Atlantic, with strong
   to potentially severe wind gusts likely. However, if convection
   moving into the Northeast by Sunday morning is less robust,
   convective re-intensification may be more likely farther north into
   southern New England. A more focused severe threat would be highly
   dependent on the placement and evolution of earlier convection/MCS
   morphology across Ontario during the late Day 1 period, which
   currently has low predictability. Despite weak vertical wind shear,
   of concern is the eastward advection of a modest EML into the
   Northeast, which may boost MLCAPE well over 3000 J/kg (perhaps over
   4000 J/kg locally). Higher severe probabilities may be needed if
   confidence in the placement and/or timing of more organized
   convection increases.
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20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Timing sucks. Too bad it couldn’t come through 4-6 hrs later. It slowed a bit too.

 

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Most likely scenario is no storms but debris clouds ruining big heat tomorrow 

I agree, but we’ll see if we can get lucky and make something happen.

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