June 2025 Obs/Disco

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, rimetree said:

I brought my daughter down a couple years ago and we stopped in at Skaket Beach near low tide. I forgot how crazy it gets with the tide...just sand for like a mile into the bay. Should be back in August staying at a place on Pamet Harbor in Truro.

Skaket is one of my favs too. Nice.

[weatherwiz]

the HRRR is WAYYYYYYYY off

[Chrisrotary12]

50 minutes ago, yoda said:

Head west @weatherwiz

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1363
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1144 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

   Areas affected...portions of the Northeast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 191644Z - 191815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this
   afternoon with a primary threat of damaging wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows deepening towering
   cumulus across central and eastern New York amid moderate
   instability in an uncapped environment. As storms deepen, some
   organization/updraft rotation is expected given moderate shear (50
   knots at 3km per ENX VWP). Damaging wind gusts and isolated large
   hail will be the primary threat from this activity. Storm coverage
   may be somewhat isolated early this afternoon as the upper-level
   trough and surface front remain across the eastern Great
   Lakes/southern Ontario. Additional storms may arrive this evening as
   those features move east, but instability will likely be weaker by
   this time, and the severe threat remains questionable by later this
   evening.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...
   CTP...

   LAT...LON   41727697 43137600 45007485 45087370 45077361 45037202
               44287197 42447221 41197276 40967327 40887370 40797446
               40827510 40927587 41117637 41727697 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

 

Pretty obvious where storms will and won’t be based on agitated cu. 

[metagraphica]

88/73.   Summah!!!

[Torch Tiger]

20 minutes ago, yoda said:

Watch up

Weak watch at that lol

Why is it weak?  

[Typhoon Tip]

Glaciator on vis moving quickly into western Ma

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

wingaersheek Beach up on the N side of Cape Ann, where the Labrador current stuns all else, does that.  Coved formation/pools around the beach and very long surf floor - you can walk out a quarter mile a low tide - makes for "fake" warm water there.  

my favorite beach, spent a lot of time there as a kid

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

my favorite beach, spent a lot of time there as a kid

yeah ..it's kind of marvel with the rocks and pools amid that fine sand.   i can imagine if your a kid with a floater of some kind, how much fun that would be.

[weatherwiz]

This stuff killing the potential damn 

[CoastalWx]

Euro has the mild down still W-F next week...but then heat returns after. Does look like we trough just before the 4th which may cool things closer to normal. However that is way out.

[weatherwiz]

damn I had lapse rates up on mesoanalysis and saw an area of 7 and got excited...then I realized it was 2-6km lapse rates I had up 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Euro has the mild down still W-F next week...but then heat returns after. Does look like we trough just before the 4th which may cool things closer to normal. However that is way out.

Next week going to be convectively active and lots of clouds/convective debris around. 

[Torch Tiger]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

damn I had lapse rates up on mesoanalysis and saw an area of 7 and got excited...then I realized it was 2-6km lapse rates I had up 

ML lapse rates look like garbage.  I get it now, ew

 

 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

RIP to those who didn't listen to Kevin. 

If I had listened to him, my AC unit would be rusty from the snow that had accumulated on it back in March when he first started pimping the install.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

ML lapse rates look like garbage.  I get it now, ew

 

 

Yeah I was not pleased when I saw that this morning. Maybe the NAM was just overplaying them or maybe the convection from yesterday in the OV region just destroyed the EML plume. Could have got too much of a cold pool with the convection

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro has the mild down still W-F next week...but then heat returns after. Does look like we trough just before the 4th which may cool things closer to normal. However that is way out.

The GFS and GGEM actually wiggled warmer at 500 mb in the Sun -Wed ... tad more robust and resitent.  The surface seems like it might be negotiable with this.  The GGEM roasts Wednesday but the GFS fronts us despite building heighs more.  

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Next week going to be convectively active and lots of clouds/convective debris around. 

I dunno ...

I think the models are overly sensitive ( physics ) maybe. 

Typically when you exceed 590 heights in a bona fide ridge node you have suppression... DVM stabilizing ...that's part of the feed-back in the synergistic heat model... some degree ( no pun intended ) of that happens in all warm ridges regardless of whether they go over the top or not.  

Anyway, it just seems either the ridge has to pancake some, or these models are going to be wrong with all their junk. In fact, there's some appeal there like they've been confusing the coastal heat trough with a front... Like it 96-100 producing a 'thermal low', and then the models start propagating the trough axis like it was a cold front.  wrong -

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Next week going to be convectively active and lots of clouds/convective debris around. 

Yeah, that may temper temps a bit in that mild down I was saying.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I dunno ...

I think the models are overly sensitive ( physics ) to stuff.  Typically when you exceed 590 heights in a bona fide ridge node you have suppression... DVM stabilizing ...that's part of the feed-back in the synergistic heat model... some degree ( no pun intended ) of that happens in all warm ridges regardless of whether they go over the top or not.  

Anyway, it just seems either the ridge has to pancake some, or these models are going to be wrong with all there junk

That is a very valid point. At the least though, I still think we may see lots of cloud debris from convection across northern Plains into Canada depending on exact flow orientation 

[weathafella]

Kind of perfect summer day.  
 

My beach of choice is Crane Beach in Ipswich.  Exorbitant parking costs keep the crowds down and it’s among the most beautiful beaches on the east coast.  The problem is greenheads for a few weeks during peak summer making it uninhabitable.  In general, I don’t go before 3-4 to minimize high sun.  One bout of skin cancer is enough.

[Modfan2]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

That is a very valid point. At the least though, I still think we may see lots of cloud debris from convection across northern Plains into Canada depending on exact flow orientation 

Looking like NW of 84 and maybe west of 91 might be the best area 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

If you ever get the chance, go to the Bay side of the Cape in August. Especially Brewster to Welfleet. The water is so shallow that when the tide comes back in over those flats...it may as well be FL. It's pretty awesome. First Encounter beach in Eastham is one of my favorites. Nice lazy river there to go floating on as the tide comes in or out. 

Interesting... one of my besties from college has a summer cattage down there. Not sure if it is the bay or atlantic side, but he's waxed nostalgia about rafting a river with the tides.   Huh, wonder if it's one in the same - like it's a known thing.

[weatherwiz]

Curious to see what happens between 3-6 PM. The forcing is still pretty west and even seems a few hours slower than what was modeled. But dynamics are increasing a bit and we're backing the sfc winds somewhat, at least locally. The pre-frontal trough is pretty east though...once that goes through maybe we can keep enough instability for some scattered stuff with the front early in the evening

[Torch Tiger]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah I was not pleased when I saw that this morning. Maybe the NAM was just overplaying them or maybe the convection from yesterday in the OV region just destroyed the EML plume. Could have got too much of a cold pool with the convection

hey, at least there's a few rain showers/storms around for you central and western folks.  congrats

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Kind of perfect summer day.  
 

My beach of choice is Crane Beach in Ipswich.  Exorbitant parking costs keep the crowds down and it’s among the most beautiful beaches on the east coast.  The problem is greenheads for a few weeks during peak summer making it uninhabitable.  In general, I don’t go before 3-4 to minimize high sun.  One bout of skin cancer is enough.

LOL  ...that's one way to gentrify ...  "yeah, no problem - full public access"

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Interesting... one of my besties from college has a summer cattage down there. Not sure if it is the bay or atlantic side, but he's waxed nostalgia about rafting a river with the tides.   Huh, wonder if it's one and the same - like it's a known thing.

Atlantic side has beautiful scenery but water is frigid and you risk losing your mid section if you go too far out lol. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Atlantic side has beautiful scenery but water is frigid and you risk losing your mid section if you go too far out lol. 

I know...  Speilberg might have been on to something -

[dendrite]

87.7/69

Pretty awesome out. 

[dryslot]

80/74°F, Gross.

[SouthCoastMA]

It's your prototypical Cape beach day, 80/70