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June 2025 Obs/Disco

Torch Tiger

By Torch Tiger,
in New England

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alex
alex

Wonder how my plants will take the frost this morning…  

Zeppy
Zeppy

49.8 with an 8:17 sunset 

weatherwiz
weatherwiz

See how much happier everyone is posting heat/humidity obs? This is our happy place 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

All this MCS activity and convection along the front is causing some major model chaos. Part of the issue too is the degree of convection is so extensive that this will cause some big wiggles in the placement of the boundary throughout the day today and tomorrow. So it may seem at times the front is farther south and east that modeled, but as convection wanes a bit in the overnight the front position corrects back northwest a bit. Makes it very challenging on what to expect here in terms of frontal timing and placement. 

Back in the heady days of college ... there was a convective index known as the K.   The K index ...basically it's a calculation that describes how quickly an unstable environment blows its load.   I just never hear it mentioned anywhere over the years.   

A high K index ends up being a self destructive convection sequencing more lateral rains ... Low is like a 4000 SB-CAPE sitting under -3 CIN.   Oh here it is,  {\displaystyle K=(T_{850}-T_{500})+T_{d_{850}}-(T_{700}-T_{d_{700}})}

K is George's indiex ( or K ) and the Ts and Td are at respective sigma levels ( pressure)

K-index values vs. Thunderstorm Probability
   
Less than 20 None
20 to 25 Isolated thunderstorms
26 to 30 Widely scattered thunderstorms
31 to 35 Scattered thunderstorms
Above 35 Numerous thunderstorms
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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Back in the heady days of college ... there was a convective index known as the K.   The K index ...basically it's a calculation that describes how quickly an unstable environment blows its load.   I just never hear it mentioned anywhere over the years.   

A high K index ends up being a self destructive convection sequencing more lateral rains ... Low is like a 4000 SB-CAPE sitting under -3 CIN.   Oh here it is,  {\displaystyle K=(T_{850}-T_{500})+T_{d_{850}}-(T_{700}-T_{d_{700}})}

K is George's indiex ( or K ) and the Ts and Td are at respective sigma levels ( pressure)

K-index values vs. Thunderstorm Probability
   
Less than 20 None
20 to 25 Isolated thunderstorms
26 to 30 Widely scattered thunderstorms
31 to 35 Scattered thunderstorms
Above 35 Numerous thunderstorms

I wonder if the K Index isn't widely used anymore just because of the advancement of additional tools and indices? Another one that rings a bell is the Craven Brooks Sig Severe Index or the SWEAT Index. IIRC, the K Index was actually quite decent. But now everyone just runs to supecell composite/sig tor parameter and looks at the hazard type on the SHARPpy soundings :lol:  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I wonder if the K Index isn't widely used anymore just because of the advancement of additional tools and indices? Another one that rings a bell is the Craven Brooks Sig Severe Index or the SWEAT Index. IIRC, the K Index was actually quite decent. But now everyone just runs to supecell composite/sig tor parameter and looks at the hazard type on the SHARPpy soundings :lol:  

OH I'm sure...

I remember Met Lab ...  we used to get maps that contained just the 500 mb T, Td and wind velocities.  Then, knowing that 1 inch on the chart was ~ = 10 kts, we had to draw all the 500 mb isotachs   :blink:   zomb    Determine the dots, then connect the dots, on steroids ( there was more to it than this ... )

Met students today?  I bet they don't need to know that.   All they need to know is how to get chatGPT to create a facsimile that has a very high simulacra value, thus fooling the professor into believing it was done by an actual human being.   

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metagraphica

metagraphica

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Any few lingering , poor souls out there that haven’t installed yet? You wouldn’t imagine there is, but guarantee there’s  1 or 2 that will claim window fans blowing pine pollen and smoke around and the house is cool and comfortable. 

Still not installed.  Probably tonight or tomorrow morning.  Tomorrow and Friday gonna be heaters.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

OH I'm sure...

I remember Met Lab ...  we used to get maps that contained the 500 mb temperature and wind velocities, and using the wind velocities, and knowing that 1 inch on the chart was ~ = 10 kts, we had to draw all the 500 mb isotachs   :blink:   zomb    Determine the dots, the connect the dots, on steroids

Met students today don't need to know that.   All they need to know is how to get chatGPT to create a facsimile that has a very high simulacra value, thus fooling the professor into believing it was done by an actual human being.   

This is why technology is a blessing and a curse. On the curse side of things, there is no such thing as fundamentals anymore because computers can do all that. But if something were to ever happen say with computers and internet, we'd be screwed as a society because nobody would know how to do things manually anymore. 

When I was in high school I wanted to double major with accounting/meteorology. Accounting came as a mistake. In 8th grade it was time to pick classes for high school and pick two electives. Me being young/stupid was looking for easy. So, I selected a class that I thought was acting (the course code was Acct). Anyways, that class turned out to be my very first class of high school and I walk into the room and remember thinking, "umm this doesn't look like it would be for acting". Anyways, turned out it was accounting and I was the only freshman in a class with juniors and mostly seniors...I ended up sticking with it and loving it so all my electives geared towards business. But I enjoyed it...balancing sheets and ledgers, etc. 

Anyways, fast forward to when I went to community college about 12 years ago. I took accounting again...it was worlds different. In high school, we did everything by hand in a book. This class was all automated...all computer.

My point with this long story is...even in the business world, I don't think anyone would probably know how to do a balance sheet by hand or balance a check book by hand if needed, computer programs do this stuff now. 

Kind of sad

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Modfan2

Modfan2

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Had a nasty bolt from the blue last year under clear skies, but caught a house on fire down the street. Storm was probably 5-6 miles north. That scared the shit out of me. 

Had that happen to me in FL, Storm west of 95/FL Turnpike, so I went to a site east of 95 and boom, nice CG hit. Never far enough away!

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Any few lingering , poor souls out there that haven’t installed yet? You wouldn’t imagine there is, but guarantee there’s  1 or 2 that will claim window fans blowing pine pollen and smoke around and the house is cool and comfortable. 

I installed on Monday and Tuesday. Will probably crank em this evening

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Hailstoned

Hailstoned

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Any few lingering , poor souls out there that haven’t installed yet? You wouldn’t imagine there is, but guarantee there’s  1 or 2 that will claim window fans blowing pine pollen and smoke around and the house is cool and comfortable. 

I'm one-- happily and comfortably so. If Ms. Mother N. hadn't wanted us to breathe in pine pollen and all the other detritus of the season floating around out there, she'd have fitted us with filtering gills or some such thing. I'm sitting in the living room, no fans, just a nice soft breeze stirring through, breathing in whatever she sends this way. (Oh, strange coincidence-- no one I know who's regularly out there "earthing" runs away shrieking at the sight of a random peanut or two...)

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Hailstoned said:

I'm one-- happily and comfortably so. If Ms. Mother N. hadn't wanted us to breathe in pine pollen and all the other detritus of the season floating around out there, she'd have fitted us with filtering gills or some such thing. I'm sitting in the living room, no fans, just a nice soft breeze stirring through, breathing in whatever she sends this way. (Oh, strange coincidence-- no one I know who's regularly out there "earthing" runs away shrieking at the sight of a random peanut or two...)

Keep the phone at bedside to call 911 when can’t get sheets unstuck from skin and the pollen has jammed the door handles 

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