June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[Brian5671]

close to nothing here and the dry air is moving S now....

[FPizz]

15 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Mod - heavy rain and 0.63 in the bucket.  

Slowed down a bit here, 0.57

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Water temps are over 70 for most of September-whereas now they are 60-65

And yet June average is over 6 degrees warmer than September. 

[Sundog]

And we've gotten days where it stayed in the 50s during the day in the second half of August, despite the warmer water. 

[forkyfork]

the ggem gets close to height records

[psv88]

Still 59 and 0.51”, rain continues 

[winterwarlock]

9 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the ggem gets close to height records

We roast

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

why are these models showing 70s on the south shore though?

 

Hard to tell over a week out. But the EPS mean has westerly flow. So my guess is that most of the area away from the immediate shore will see their first mid to possibly upper 90s of the season. It’s a strong signal from an ensemble mean to see a 594 DM heat dome in the East over a week out.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Hard to tell over a week out. But the EPS mean has westerly flow. So my guess is that most of the area away from the immediate shore will see their first mid to possibly upper 90s of the season. It’s a strong signal from an ensemble mean to see a 594 DM heat dome in the East over a week out.

 

Yes that definitely looks like a NW flow event here, we could have the highest temperatures of the tristate area here!!

 

[LibertyBell]

39 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the ggem gets close to height records

This kind of reminds me of the evolution of the hot summer of 1980.  From Tony's daily posts you can see that there were a bunch of cold low records from 1980 even at JFK from early to mid June.  But the summer really began around June 20th as heat from the west expanded eastward.  Although Saint Louis was the epicenter of the heat that summer, NYC had their hottest July-August couplet on record that year with those 62 days averaging over 80 degrees with August 1980 the hottest August on record here!  The heat matched up with astronomical summer really well as it began on June 20th and ended September 20th.

I remember a few of us brought up 1980 as an analog to this summer.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes that definitely looks like a NW flow event here, we could have the highest temperatures of the tristate area here!!

 

And maybe big storms. Sometimes we see derechos or big storm complexes on the periphery of these heat dome ridges. 

[LibertyBell]

57 minutes ago, Sundog said:

And yet June average is over 6 degrees warmer than September. 

We have to look at recent trends more, September become a summer month now.  Even October.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, jm1220 said:

And maybe big storms. Sometimes we see derechos or big storm complexes on the periphery of these heat dome ridges. 

Yes, I wonder if 1980 would be a good analog, I think we had big storms and big heat that summer.  A late starting summer but it lasted a long time.

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes that definitely looks like a NW flow event here, we could have the highest temperatures of the tristate area here!!

 

If we can keep the ridge from elongating too much into SE Canada in later runs, then a flatter EPS high like below will keep the flow more westerly. 
 

 

[LibertyBell]

55 minutes ago, Sundog said:

And we've gotten days where it stayed in the 50s during the day in the second half of August, despite the warmer water. 

July 2, 1993 we had a split of 66/62 (actually similar to today with windy onshore flow and heavy rain.)  A few days later we were off to the races with one of the most extreme heatwaves on record and one of the hottest summers on record, many of whose records still stand today (3 days in a row of 100+ at NYC, 5 days in a row of 100+ at EWR and 9 100+ days for the season at EWR, most 90 degree days at NYC with 39, tied 1991.)

 

[Sundog]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

We have to look at recent trends more, September become a summer month now.  Even October.

My statement was based off the already fake and overly warm latest climate normals. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

My statement was based off the already fake and overly warm latest climate normals. 

we have to look at 90 degree days to judge heat not average temperatures.  In September 1983 for example, there were 7 90 degree days and a scorching 99 on September 11th.  I wonder how many Junes have had 7 90 degree days and peaked at 99? Maybe a couple at most.

 

[psv88]

What a miserable fucking day

[qg_omega]

15 minutes ago, psv88 said:

What a miserable fucking day

Almost no rain here and not terrible

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Glad I went to Pa, some morning rain but it’s been dry the rest of the day. Meanwhile a rare summer all day rain on the island.

[psv88]

Another Saturday where it’s 15 degrees warmer in northern Quebec

[jm1220]

50 minutes ago, psv88 said:

What a miserable fucking day

Ain't that the truth.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

What a miserable fucking day

tomorrow isn't much better but at least dry for most

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

tomorrow isn't much better but at least dry for most

it looks like the sun has been trying to come out

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be another very cool day for the season. The temperature will top out in the middle and upper 60s. It will gradually warm up on Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday, the mercury could reach 80°.

No exceptional heat appears likely through the first three weeks of June. However, a sustained peirod of above normal temperatures could develop starting late next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least mid summer.

The SOI was +0.42 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.149 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.0° (1.0° above normal). 

[SACRUS]

 

 

We'll see if the Western and pushing into CPA breaks in the clouds make it this way and we see some pokes of sun tomorrow and maybe get us above forecasted crumby highs

 

[steve392]

What a absolutely gross and wasted day. Was not expecting this much rain. Had hopes of checking out high point monument at sunset... Oh well. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Drove all the way from LI to Myrtle beach. Some crazy downpours and flooding just north of Myrtle. Nice out now though. Enjoy the 50s and 60s guys lol 

 

p.s. this drive sucks 

[SACRUS]

 

Jun 10 2019 last June high in the 60s for most.

 

 

Today's Highs


 

ACY: 71
PHL: 70
EWR: 70
TEB: 69
NYC: 67
New Brnswck: 67
LGA: 67
TTN: 67
JFK: 66
BLM: 66
ISP: 63

[SnoSki14]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Hard to tell over a week out. But the EPS mean has westerly flow. So my guess is that most of the area away from the immediate shore will see their first mid to possibly upper 90s of the season. It’s a strong signal from an ensemble mean to see a 594 DM heat dome in the East over a week out.

 

We could get our 100s