5/15(northern half) & 5/16(southern half of subforum) Severe Wx Threats

[SchaumburgStormer]

5 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

It will take me a long time to emotionally recover if these storms don't fire for me.

EDIT: I guess more accurate to say if they die out and get capped... I don't think the HRRR has a good handle on what's happening in Illinois if it's trying to kill those storms along the dry line so quickly.

I feel ya, I may shoot the gap as well

[Harry Perry]

Not sure if I ever recall this for MBY. Impressive to say the least. 

[Harry Perry]

8 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

I feel ya, I may shoot the gap as well

Trends between 20z and 22z would also agree, the tail is further and further north with each run. May end up with nothing here as well. Big bust potential.

[sbnwx85]

If the storm around Springfield can hold for another hour or two I'll feel better.

[SchaumburgStormer]

21 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

I feel ya, I may shoot the gap as well

Neat. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Wisconsin is rocking but not looking great down here 

[sbnwx85]

We're so back.

Mesoscale Discussion 0798
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0650 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of western/central Lower Michigan into
   northern/central Indiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 152350Z - 160115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A line of severe storms capable of producing embedded
   tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will overspread the area
   from the west into tonight. One or more watches will likely be
   issued for parts of the area.

   DISCUSSION...A broken band of severe storms, including several
   embedded supercell structures, is tracking eastward across far
   eastern Wisconsin -- posing an all-hazards severe risk. As an
   occluded surface front continues eastward, this line of storms, and
   potentially new storms in the pre-frontal warm-advection plume, will
   overspread western/central Lower MI and northern/central IN over the
   next few hours. Earlier diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer
   (middle/upper 60s dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates is
   contributing to moderate/strong surface-based instability. In
   addition, 40-50 kt of effective shear oriented mostly perpendicular
   to the ongoing convection will support a band of severe storms with
   embedded supercells and bowing structures. Ample low-level SRH will
   support embedded tornadoes, with damaging winds and isolated large
   hail also possible. One or more watches will likely be issued for
   the area.

[kevlon62]

A few strong punches in the last twenty minutes. Some peas mixed in. Maybe a few low-end severe gusts.

Nice to have some daylight and bright sky staying put to the northwest for contrast in the sky.

Maybe one or two more quick hits but nothing crazy here.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Just keeping up the winter “boring as fuck” trend. Hopefully Michigan will get rocked. 

[A-L-E-K]

Bust

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

all it's gonna take is one supercell popping ahead of the line for southern MI or Northern Indiana to get smoked in this environment 

[sbnwx85]

1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

all it's gonna take is one supercell popping ahead of the line for southern MI or Northern Indiana to get smoked in this environment 

 

[Harry Perry]

3 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

all it's gonna take is one supercell popping ahead of the line for southern MI or Northern Indiana to get smoked in this environment 

Yeah I feel like it’s going to be way more scattered this way. 23z HRRR vs. actual imagery is no where near the same. Everything is further north and south. Granted there will be outflows that will probably blow some storms overhead (which could be more of a bad thing really, just less coverage). There’s a tongue of mid level moisture working in from the southwest right now that might also fire some storms around the Gary/South Bend area, along the LLJ with available cape should blossom, but time will tell.

[Malacka11]

At least it looks and sounds cool tho

[sbnwx85]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 256
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   820 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Lower Michigan
     Lake Michigan

   * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 820 PM
     until 300 AM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 80 mph possible
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms will spread east-northeastward this
   evening and overnight across much of Lower Michigan while posing a
   threat for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds. Peak gusts
   may reach up to 70-80 mph. A few tornadoes may also occur within the
   line of convection. Large hail will be possible with any embedded
   supercells.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 60 miles north of Traverse City MI to
   10 miles southwest of Kalamazoo MI. For a complete depiction of the
   watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

[Jackstraw]

33 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

We're so back.

Mesoscale Discussion 0798
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0650 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of western/central Lower Michigan into
   northern/central Indiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 152350Z - 160115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A line of severe storms capable of producing embedded
   tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will overspread the area
   from the west into tonight. One or more watches will likely be
   issued for parts of the area.

   DISCUSSION...A broken band of severe storms, including several
   embedded supercell structures, is tracking eastward across far
   eastern Wisconsin -- posing an all-hazards severe risk. As an
   occluded surface front continues eastward, this line of storms, and
   potentially new storms in the pre-frontal warm-advection plume, will
   overspread western/central Lower MI and northern/central IN over the
   next few hours. Earlier diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer
   (middle/upper 60s dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates is
   contributing to moderate/strong surface-based instability. In
   addition, 40-50 kt of effective shear oriented mostly perpendicular
   to the ongoing convection will support a band of severe storms with
   embedded supercells and bowing structures. Ample low-level SRH will
   support embedded tornadoes, with damaging winds and isolated large
   hail also possible. One or more watches will likely be issued for
   the area.

Yeah could be a long night with the dogs lol. We'll see how long that line can sustain itself. Some pretty spooky soundings on the HiRes NAM for the N half of IN and lower MI through midnight. I'm gonna bank on my Climo that they die out was they pass LAF for my area. 

[madwx]

Don’t sleep on tomorrow evening in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. 

[TheNiño]

Took some hail damage here up to ping pong ball size. Van parked in the driveway has a few minor dents but nothing horrible. The winds were strong enough to take down my old rusty flag pole. RIP ol’ gal.

I have video of the hail I’ll post later once my internet comes back. 

[Malacka11]

Think the city might still get a decent hit?

[nwohweather]

Yeah could be a long night with the dogs lol. We'll see how long that line can sustain itself. Some pretty spooky soundings on the HiRes NAM for the N half of IN and lower MI through midnight. I'm gonna bank on my Climo that they die out was they pass LAF for my area. 

It should be fine as the LLJ gets a bit stronger this evening. Definitely a hell of an environment off to the east to sustain any storms for quite awhile

[magoos0728]

Just now, Malacka11 said:

Think the city might still get a decent hit?

Is Edgebrook the city? We're getting hit now. Good gusts right now and decent lightning 

[sbnwx85]

Areas affected...Parts of northeastern into central Illinois

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 255...

   Valid 160036Z - 160130Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 255 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe hail and damaging winds are the primary concern,
   though the tornado risk could increase with any sustained supercells
   over the next couple hours.

   DISCUSSION...Severe storms are tracking eastward along the
   north/south-oriented dryline feature across northeastern/central IL.
   Storms have increased in intensity/coverage over central IL (along
   the southern portion of the line), where large-scale ascent in the
   exit region of a midlevel jet is maximized amid strong buoyancy
   (around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and minimal inhibition. Given the strong
   buoyancy and 60 kt of 0-6km shear oriented perpendicular to the
   line, these storms will continue to pose a risk of severe hail and
   damaging winds. Sufficient low-level shear (around 30-kt 0-1km per
   ILX VWP) and rich boundary-layer moisture will also support a
   tornado risk, especially with any established supercell structures. 

   Farther north into northeastern IL, storm coverage has been limited
   owing to weaker large-scale ascent. However, as the dryline feature
   intercepts the old lake breeze boundary, an uptick in severe
   potential will be possible over the next hour or two. Ample
   buoyancy/low-level moisture and sufficient low/deep-layer shear will
   support supercell structures capable of damaging winds, large hail,
   and a tornado or two.

   ..Weinman.. 05/16/2025

[Powerball]

47 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Bust

^^^A little too hasty...

[A-L-E-K]

Solid gusts, baby hail

[SchaumburgStormer]

Winds popping in the south burbs. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

16 minutes ago, Powerball said:

^^^A little too hasty...

Nah he was just calling it for MBY and the trace of blown dust I received 

[KeenerWx]

Storms will miss just north. Shame. 

[sbnwx85]

Going to be a real close call. Working on the north side of the county may be the only reason I see a storm.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

That new tornado watch not including Branch Hillsdale or any of DTX is a... choice

[snowlover2]