Ji Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 How we looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 Our typical two week window for 3 inches of TV Snow. Then waiting on a can kick pattern for 3 months that never materializes. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 A little premature. Don't we usually at least wait until we are all sick of the summer heat and humidity(end of June) before starting this thread? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 9 hours ago, Ji said: How we looking? lookin good 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 4 hours ago, CAPE said: lookin good That's the setup for an EPIC FEBRUARY PATTERN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 I have this theory, post 2016 every third winter has been a snowless torch fest. 16-17, 19-20, 22-23 The latter two had totals less than an inch for the 95 corridor. This upcoming winter will test the theory to see if it holds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 CPC's DJF 2025-26 Winter outlook 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 QBO should be negative.. March to April went from +11 to +6. When it changes phases it usually lasts at least 10 months. -QBO with El Nino favors Stratosphere warmings, but ENSO looks to be more Neutral this Winter. -QBO's with neg-Neutral ENSO have been known for cold December's then switching to warmer Jan-Feb (89-90, 05-06), but there's not enough data to say that for sure. My N. Atlantic SST method predicted +0.52 NAO last Winter (DJFM), and it ended up being +0.65. That makes it 15-5 on getting the right sign in real time since I came up with it in 2005. Also 11-9 within the estimated standard deviation of +0.54. The index runs May-Sept, so it's too early to say where it's going right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 December Natural Gas contract is almost right at $5... I usually say below $5 favors +NAO, and above $5 favors -NAO.. below $3 stronger +NAO, and above $8 stronger -NAO.. So right now almost exactly neutral on NAO prediction there. March '26 Natural Gas is $4.20.. a slight +NAO lean for later in the Winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted May 5 Author Share Posted May 5 QBO should be negative.. March to April went from +11 to +6. When it changes phases it usually lasts at least 10 months. -QBO with El Nino favors Stratosphere warmings, but ENSO looks to be more Neutral this Winter. -QBO's with neg-Neutral ENSO have been known for cold December's then switching to warmer Jan-Feb (89-90, 05-06), but there's not enough data to say that for sure. My N. Atlantic SST method predicted +0.52 NAO last Winter (DJFM), and it ended up being +0.65. That makes it 15-5 on getting the right sign in real time since I came up with it in 2005. Also 11-9 within the estimated standard deviation of +0.54. The index runs May-Sept, so it's too early to say where it's going right now. How was is our chance for +pdo winter ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted May 5 Author Share Posted May 5 Canada looks cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 2 hours ago, Ji said: How was is our chance for +pdo winter ? We are still in decadal -PDO. The problem with that is that the index was so extremely negative the last few years, that even if there is a rebound, the subsurface is still pretty warm in the North Pacific PDO region. We were rebounding nicely in the PDO through the late Winter and March.. Now I think it has stabilized with the NOAA PDO index still near -1, and other readings are near -0.5 (Gawx knows more about this difference). Nino 1+2 being so warm in March rolled forward to a nice +PDO composite for November, but now Nino 1+2 has dropped to negative, so I don't know that, that is still valid. I would guess it stays near neutral, or slightly negative, but the only real strong Aleutian High pressure we have had since November was Jan 15 - Feb 10. Just one example of that really. It does seem to have changed a bit in the N. Pacific compared to the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 October 2024 was the strongest monthly PDO on record, at -3.81. Rolled forward +15 months to 2 Winter's later, the tendency is slight -PNA, but a little bit more of a -NAO here (map is default positive, so it's the opposite) The 1-year lead PDO doesn't appear to be that impactful for 15 months later (testing the subsurface PDO theory), but there is a slight -PNA signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 I don't have any thoughts about next winter so I'll just use this one for now 4 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 We get our winter pattern in April and May now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 5 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: We get our winter pattern in April and May now April and May have been above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic the Sequel Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 On 5/4/2025 at 8:37 AM, Ji said: How we looking? we've had so-so success with the follow-up winter in a negative neutral regime. 2013-14 isnt a bad analog in terms of showing the upside. It was a -PDO follow-up winter in a neg neutral regime. But there are some equally bad downsides. It could be like a 60's winter but like the weakest years of the 60s. Who remembers 67-68? nobody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 6 hours ago, Deck Pic the Sequel said: we've had so-so success with the follow-up winter in a negative neutral regime. 2013-14 isnt a bad analog in terms of showing the upside. It was a -PDO follow-up winter in a neg neutral regime. But there are some equally bad downsides. It could be like a 60's winter but like the weakest years of the 60s. Who remembers 67-68? nobody @H2O was already in his 40’s then. He remembers it well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted May 27 Share Posted May 27 It's gonnabe THE 2013-2014 SEQUEL. Get ready. Buy Jebman shovels, snowblowers, salt, kitty litter and a ton of beer and foods and get those phones ready to play all the tracks that remind you of snow! Get ready for EPIC jebwalks in 5 inch per hour snows. Better stock up a huge supply of whatever you use to stay awake. Because you will be up tracking models for weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Tuesday at 04:12 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:12 AM Negative PNA After the lowest daily PNA since 2017, 8 years, in May, the PNA is forecasted to fall below -1 again June would be the 4th consecutive month with negative PNA I rolled forward the March-April-May PNA and April-May-June PNA to the following Winter, to see if it leads anything. Surprisingly, there is no PNA signal the following Winter.. correlation is near 0 in the North Pacific. So to say that this Spring/early Summer PNA is going to lead the Winter is not completely right. There is, however, a NAO signal. Negative PNA March-June puts the probability at about 56-57% that the Winter NAO will be negative [correlation of below maps is opposite] US temps for the following Winter are neutral, for the -PNA rolled forward. About the best you can hope for given the occurrence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Thursday at 04:47 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:47 PM WB 6/1 EPS for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Thursday at 05:09 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:09 PM 19 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6/1 EPS for December. Eps were too warm last year, so I'll take it at this point for a long lead guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Thursday at 05:10 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:10 PM Just now, mitchnick said: Eps were too warm last year, so I'll take it at this point for a long lead guess. Meant to ask, can you post November? I'd like to see if there were any trends as weak as it may be. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted yesterday at 01:10 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:10 AM 7 hours ago, mitchnick said: Meant to ask, can you post November? I'd like to see if there were any trends as weak as it may be. Thanks. WB EPS November at 6/1 compared to 5/1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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