Ji Posted Sunday at 12:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:37 PM How we looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Sunday at 01:12 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:12 PM Our typical two week window for 3 inches of TV Snow. Then waiting on a can kick pattern for 3 months that never materializes. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Sunday at 09:44 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:44 PM A little premature. Don't we usually at least wait until we are all sick of the summer heat and humidity(end of June) before starting this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Sunday at 10:00 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:00 PM 9 hours ago, Ji said: How we looking? lookin good 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Monday at 02:27 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:27 AM 4 hours ago, CAPE said: lookin good That's the setup for an EPIC FEBRUARY PATTERN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Monday at 03:03 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:03 AM I have this theory, post 2016 every third winter has been a snowless torch fest. 16-17, 19-20, 22-23 The latter two had totals less than an inch for the 95 corridor. This upcoming winter will test the theory to see if it holds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Monday at 07:00 AM Share Posted Monday at 07:00 AM CPC's DJF 2025-26 Winter outlook 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Monday at 07:04 AM Share Posted Monday at 07:04 AM QBO should be negative.. March to April went from +11 to +6. When it changes phases it usually lasts at least 10 months. -QBO with El Nino favors Stratosphere warmings, but ENSO looks to be more Neutral this Winter. -QBO's with neg-Neutral ENSO have been known for cold December's then switching to warmer Jan-Feb (89-90, 05-06), but there's not enough data to say that for sure. My N. Atlantic SST method predicted +0.52 NAO last Winter (DJFM), and it ended up being +0.65. That makes it 15-5 on getting the right sign in real time since I came up with it in 2005. Also 11-9 within the estimated standard deviation of +0.54. The index runs May-Sept, so it's too early to say where it's going right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Monday at 07:08 AM Share Posted Monday at 07:08 AM December Natural Gas contract is almost right at $5... I usually say below $5 favors +NAO, and above $5 favors -NAO.. below $3 stronger +NAO, and above $8 stronger -NAO.. So right now almost exactly neutral on NAO prediction there. March '26 Natural Gas is $4.20.. a slight +NAO lean for later in the Winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Monday at 11:38 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 11:38 PM QBO should be negative.. March to April went from +11 to +6. When it changes phases it usually lasts at least 10 months. -QBO with El Nino favors Stratosphere warmings, but ENSO looks to be more Neutral this Winter. -QBO's with neg-Neutral ENSO have been known for cold December's then switching to warmer Jan-Feb (89-90, 05-06), but there's not enough data to say that for sure. My N. Atlantic SST method predicted +0.52 NAO last Winter (DJFM), and it ended up being +0.65. That makes it 15-5 on getting the right sign in real time since I came up with it in 2005. Also 11-9 within the estimated standard deviation of +0.54. The index runs May-Sept, so it's too early to say where it's going right now. How was is our chance for +pdo winter ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Monday at 11:40 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 11:40 PM Canada looks cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Tuesday at 01:37 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:37 AM 2 hours ago, Ji said: How was is our chance for +pdo winter ? We are still in decadal -PDO. The problem with that is that the index was so extremely negative the last few years, that even if there is a rebound, the subsurface is still pretty warm in the North Pacific PDO region. We were rebounding nicely in the PDO through the late Winter and March.. Now I think it has stabilized with the NOAA PDO index still near -1, and other readings are near -0.5 (Gawx knows more about this difference). Nino 1+2 being so warm in March rolled forward to a nice +PDO composite for November, but now Nino 1+2 has dropped to negative, so I don't know that, that is still valid. I would guess it stays near neutral, or slightly negative, but the only real strong Aleutian High pressure we have had since November was Jan 15 - Feb 10. Just one example of that really. It does seem to have changed a bit in the N. Pacific compared to the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Tuesday at 01:44 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:44 AM October 2024 was the strongest monthly PDO on record, at -3.81. Rolled forward +15 months to 2 Winter's later, the tendency is slight -PNA, but a little bit more of a -NAO here (map is default positive, so it's the opposite) The 1-year lead PDO doesn't appear to be that impactful for 15 months later (testing the subsurface PDO theory), but there is a slight -PNA signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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