May 2025

[SACRUS]

 

The breaks have moved north and deeper / darker clouds moving in from the south.  Rain and showers into SNJ

 

 

 

 

[Sundog]

23 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That slug of rain in S NJ may be a problem

-

NAMS coming in very wet for many here

Models seem to have the rains to our south and west not really hitting NYC east. 

Maybe they'll be wrong, we'll see. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

Models seem to have the rains to our south and west not really hitting NYC east. 

Maybe they'll be wrong, we'll see. 

3K NAM crushes us all

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Just now, Sundog said:

Models seem to have the rains to our south and west not really hitting NYC east. 

Maybe they'll be wrong, we'll see. 

Yeah the trajectory looks west. Likely just some sheet drizzle in the marine layer east of the city. We have seen this show before. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

3K NAM crushes us all

Hour 55 sure. We all get a soaking tomorrow night.

[Brian5671]

Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Hour 55 sure. We all get a soaking tomorrow night.

I think by Wednesday we will all be tired of rain...

[MANDA]

Received .19" from overnight showers.  Two day event total = .51".

Need more but something is better than nothing and the ground is at least somewhat primed for anything heavier over the next 1-2 days.

[Sundog]

25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I think by Wednesday we will all be tired of rain...

I'm not convinced of that quite yet haha

[steve392]

Beautiful cool breeze out, breaks in the clouds giving off some nice sunshine and blue skies. 

[bluewave]

The RGEM would be a nice soaking event across our area but Philly into SNJ would miss the jackpot again.

 

 

 

[winterwx21]

After last night's 0.28", I just got a very small downpour here that dropped 0.06". Not sure we're going to get much more here today, as it appears most of it is going to be to the north and west. But at least the ground finally has some moisture here, and we should get a good soaking Monday into Tuesday. Hopefully by the time it's over we will have received around 2 inches of rain. 

[steve392]

Drizzle has loved into my area while enjoying the birds.  Getting dark to my south. 

[Stormlover74]

17 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

After last night's 0.28", I just got a very small downpour here that dropped 0.06". Not sure we're going to get much more here today, as it appears most of it is going to be to the north and west. But at least the ground finally has some moisture here, and we should get a good soaking Monday into Tuesday. Hopefully by the time it's over we will have received around 2 inches of rain. 

The stuff over Del. could make it here later

[FPizz]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The stuff over Del. could make it here later

That area is getting good rains now, se pa and getting into snj.  Did the rgem miss it or it doesn't have much after this.

[forkyfork]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The stuff over Del. could make it here later

the hrrr can't seem to get a good handle on it

[winterwarlock]

did get a 5 minute tropical downpour around 1030

[Cfa]

A lot warmer today than I was expecting. Mid 70’s right now.

[lee59]

Rain moving in here, 64 degrees.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

44 minutes ago, Cfa said:

A lot warmer today than I was expecting. Mid 70’s right now.

Strange, low 60s and sheet drizzle SW Nassua. Hasn’t even soaked through the trees. 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

I'm not convinced of that quite yet haha

People who like that much rain are very strange people and make up less than 00000000000.1% of the population I'm sure.

Unless you have a farm in Nebraska or Iowa you shouldn't want so much rain, and even then, floods are FAR more damaging than droughts could EVER be.

I'm also not convinced that natural rain is better than our own watering, nature is not always better, especially with all the pollution in our air.  I was reading that we have no federal limits on arsenic (wtf) and there's arsenic in rain water.  Every little bit adds up.

I'd much rather have my own filtered source of water, something that I can control the chemical composition of, rather than relying on nature for anything. And I find all talk of drought to be ridiculous when 70% of our planet is covered in water.  If humanity wasn't so lazy we could create our own *rain* whenever we wanted by simply taking water from the ocean and properly filtering it to the chemical composition we want.

Plus, like normal people,. I love my clear blue skies :-)

 

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Strange, low 60s and sheet drizzle SW Nassua. Hasn’t even soaked through the trees. 

We had rain earlier.

I for one do not want my weekend ruined.  Rain Monday into Tuesday is fine and timed much better for people who want to do stuff on their weekends.

[LibertyBell]

On 5/2/2025 at 7:41 AM, bluewave said:

More early season mid 80s heat for the warm spots today as we are off to the 3rd and 4th warmest spring on record from Newark out to Islip. Hopefully, we can actually verify some heavy rains out of  the cutoff low forecast. This has some potential to reduce the drought a bit. But it’s going to be a challenge to completely make up the 10 inch deficit since last summer over NJ and Eastern PA. But a 25% to 50% reduction would be good news. Since drought feedback going into the summer would result in a very hot summer especially in areas away from the sea breeze. So we will need another 2 or 3 potential big event like this to push back in the heat potential this summer. Since the only way we have seen summer heat in recent years get reduced some has been through very heavy rains like in 2023. But that was a developing El Niño. La Ninas often have cutoffs in May but transition to drier conditions over the summer.  I would be nice to see a wetter pattern hold into the summer. Maybe the Euro seasonal release on the 5th will have some clues.

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2012-05-01	53.4	0
2	2010-05-01	53.3	0
3	1945-05-01	52.8	0
4	2025-05-01	52.2	0
5	2024-05-01	52.0	0
6	2023-05-01	51.4	0
-	1973-05-01	51.4	0
7	2016-05-01	51.0	0
-	1985-05-01	51.0	0
8	1977-05-01	50.3	0
9	2021-05-01	50.1	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2012-05-01	49.8	0
2	2010-05-01	49.5	0
3	2025-05-01	49.0	0
4	2024-05-01	48.2	0
5	2023-05-01	47.6	0
-	1973-05-01	47.6	0
6	2016-05-01	47.4	0
7	1991-05-01	47.3	0
8	2002-05-01	47.0	0
9	2021-05-01	46.7	0
10	1985-05-01	46.6	0
-	1977-05-01	46.6	0

Most normal people love their hot summers. 99.99% people I know love their summers hot.

I'm rather doubtful of soil moisture controlling heat at all, two of our hottest summers, 1983 and 2011 had a ton of rain.

But thankfully I do not believe we will see that kind of rainfall because we do not want the kind of horrible destruction that flooding has caused in the middle of the country.  Flooding is MUCH worse than any drought ever could be.

 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

People who like that much rain are very strange people and make up less than 00000000000.1% of the population I'm sure.

Unless you have a farm in Nebraska or Iowa you shouldn't want so much rain, and even then, floods are FAR more damaging than droughts could EVER be.

I'm also not convinced that natural rain is better than our own watering, nature is not always better, especially with all the pollution in our air.  I was reading that we have no federal limits on arsenic (wtf) and there's arsenic in rain water.  Every little bit adds up.

I'd much rather have my own filtered source of water, something that I can control the chemical composition of, rather than relying on nature for anything. And I find all talk of drought to be ridiculous when 70% of our planet is covered in water.  If humanity wasn't so lazy we could create our own *rain* whenever we wanted by simply taking water from the ocean and properly filtering it to the chemical composition we want.

Plus, like normal people,. I love my clear blue skies :-)

 

See here is the thing, you love 100+ degree temps. The vast majority of people would find that crazy. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

See here is the thing, you love 100+ degree temps. The vast majority of people would find that crazy. 

No only the people on this forum lol.  Actually among the general population I guarantee that way more people want 100 degree temperatures than want a 20 inch snowstorm lol.

I happen to love both.

We have air conditioning for 100 degree temperatures and central heat for cold and snow.  It gives us the luxury of enjoying all sorts of extreme conditions.

Average or below normal or rainy summers are so boring, there is nothing interesting about them at all.

There's no connection between rainfall and 100 degree temperatures by the way, I've found numerous wet springs and summers that still had 100 degree temperatures.  When the heat really comes in, it can dry the soil VERY quickly.  There is no more powerful object in our solar system than the power and heat of the sun!

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

The stuff over Del. could make it here later

The heavy rain is in NW NJ as expected, but yeah we will have some showers moving in. 

[winterwx21]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

People who like that much rain are very strange people and make up less than 00000000000.1% of the population I'm sure.

Unless you have a farm in Nebraska or Iowa you shouldn't want so much rain, and even then, floods are FAR more damaging than droughts could EVER be.

I'm also not convinced that natural rain is better than our own watering, nature is not always better, especially with all the pollution in our air.  I was reading that we have no federal limits on arsenic (wtf) and there's arsenic in rain water.  Every little bit adds up.

I'd much rather have my own filtered source of water, something that I can control the chemical composition of, rather than relying on nature for anything. And I find all talk of drought to be ridiculous when 70% of our planet is covered in water.  If humanity wasn't so lazy we could create our own *rain* whenever we wanted by simply taking water from the ocean and properly filtering it to the chemical composition we want.

Plus, like normal people,. I love my clear blue skies :-)

 

As other gardeners here have pointed out, it's amazing how much more quickly plants grow after a good rainfall than they do after our own watering. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

As other gardeners here have pointed out, it's amazing how much more quickly plants grow after a good rainfall than they do after our own watering. 

Yeah but we don't live in a desert, the normal rainfall we get is just fine.  I haven't watered at all this year.  Getting a quarter to a half an inch with each of these rainfalls is plenty.

I think some people forgot what thats like-- getting 2-4 inch flooding rainfalls definitely isn't normal.  Quarter to half inch rainfalls a couple of times a week is just fine.

 

[winterwx21]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah but we don't live in a desert, the normal rainfall we get is just fine.  I haven't watered at all this year.  Getting a quarter to a half an inch with each of these rainfalls is plenty.

I think some people forgot what thats like-- getting 2-4 inch flooding rainfalls definitely isn't normal.  Quarter to half inch rainfalls a couple of times a week is just fine.

 

The downpour I got last night was the first decent rainfall I got in the last couple weeks, so I had to do a lot of watering. I can't imagine how bad my lettuce plants would have looked had I not watered a lot. 

I agree that normal rainfall is just fine, but it's very annoying when we get long dry periods. The drought last fall was terrible. 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The heavy rain is in NW NJ as expected, but yeah we will have some showers moving in. 

The heavy rainfall will be Monday into Tuesday, it was nice to pull in a mostly nice weekend.  I'm more upset about the Wednesday-Friday weather though.  Two days of rain is enough but it's supposed to linger for most of the week?

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

The downpour I got last night was the first decent rainfall I got in the last couple weeks, so I had to do a lot of watering. I can't imagine how bad my lettuce plants would have looked had I not watered a lot. 

I agree that normal rainfall is just fine, but it's very annoying when we get long dry periods. The drought last fall was terrible. 

Either extreme is horrible, if I had my way we would have controlled rainfalls twice a week (mostly at night) of around half an inch each lol.