May Medium/Long Range

[aldie 22]

7 hours ago, CAPE said:

Check out the 18z GFS.

0z a bit wetter...gfs seems to ba a bit flippy floppy right now

[BlizzardNole]

10 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO...rain moves in after sunset on Monday.  Total through Wed.

Congrats Stephens City?  Do we believe that? 

[dailylurker]

49 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

0z a bit wetter...gfs seems to ba a bit flippy floppy right now

I've learned. I go with the model with less weather. The gfs doesn't look very impressive. Here comes the walk back to sprinkles lol

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I've learned. I go with the model with less weather. The gfs doesn't look very impressive. Here comes the walk back to sprinkles lol

It is looking like the last event where interior areas do better than places further east. Hopefully I can get break a tenth of an inch this time.

[frd]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

It is looking like the last event where interior areas do better than places further east. Hopefully I can get break a tenth of an inch this time.

Hopefully, not two busted forecasts in a row. 

[frd]

No significant signs of the 90 degree mark arriving any time soon to our area.  Early indications show Memorial Day weekend almost averge temps.  

[EastCoast NPZ]

5 hours ago, BlizzardNole said:

Congrats Stephens City?  Do we believe that? 

No, we don't. 

[Weather Will]

More widespread welcome rain: 12Z globals through Wednesday.

[Jebman]

Look guys I know this has nothing to do with this discussion, and I really hope you all over there get a lot of beneficial rain while staying safe, especially in the orographic portion of the sub.

I need to know what kind of ENSO state we had in 2011, especially if it was negative-neutral, like we are having now.

Thanks.

Enjoy all the cool rain!!!

[Jebman]

Man I love it so much when pro forecasters talk dirty like this:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LWX&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The upper low that will impact the region over the next few days
will start to shear out into an open wave as it lifts northeastward
from the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday toward the Northeastern states by
Thursday. As this occurs, we should start to see a few more breaks
in the cloud cover, and as a result, should heat a little better
during the day. High temperatures are expected to reach into the 70s
on Wednesday, and then upper 70s to lower 80s on Thursday. Showers
and thunderstorms appear possible either afternoon, with the
highest coverage expected Wednesday afternoon beneath the upper low.
Model soundings show mostly saturated profiles, along with some
limited instability (around 500-1500 J/kg) and relatively weak flow
through the depth of the troposphere. As a result, slow moving,
heavy rain producing thunderstorms appear possible. While there
likely won`t be any synoptic scale boundaries to focus regeneration
of storms in any one given location, the slow storm motions and
heavy rainfall rates may be enough to cause localized instances of
flooding on the heels of heavy rains on Monday and Tuesday. Areal
coverage of storms should be a bit lower, and storm motions should
be a bit faster on Thursday. When coupled with slightly drier
vertical profiles, this should lead to a lesser threat for flooding
on Thursday.

As we move toward the end of the week, a deep upper low and
attendant strong surface low will slowly track eastward into the
Upper Great Lakes. As this occurs, rich low-level moisture will be
drawn north and east from the Gulf into the Ohio Valley and Mid-
Atlantic. Simultaneously, a strong belt of mid-level flow (35-50
knots in the 700-500 hPa layer) will spread overtop that rich low-
level moisture, advecting a remnant elevated mixed layer plume
eastward as it does so. Rich low-level moisture, steeper than
climatology mid-level lapse rates, and strong mid-level flow will
result in an environment on Friday, and potentially even Saturday as
well, characterized by both strong instability and strong deep layer
shear. The EPS and GEPS ensemble means have 2000-3000 J/kg CAPE
along with 35-50 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear. The GEFS show lesser
instability and similar shear values, but have a well-know low bias
when it comes to instability. This type of parameter space raises
concerns for severe thunderstorms. While the parameter space being
advertised at the moment by models is toward the higher end of what
we typically see in this part of the country, we`re still at day 6
and 7, and there is plenty of time for things to change, especially
when an upper level low is involved (which models notoriously
struggle with in the long range). With an elevated mixed layer
involved, there are also signs of stronger capping than we typically
see, so that could complicate things as well. For now, the end of
the week is a period to monitor for potential severe thunderstorms,
with the expectation that forecast can and will change this far
out.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS, cool and wet 5 days leading up to Memorial Day.

[frd]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS, cool and wet 5 days leading up to Memorial Day.

 

Some folks are calling for a very warm to hot end of May, yet modeling continues to push back any significant heat.   

 

 

[frd]

Active weather week continues past this system. More thunderstorm potential end of the week as two cold fronts cross the area. Too early for severe potential, but the never ending passage of fronts and systems continue. 

 

Here is a summary from Mount Holly AFD. 

 

  

For Friday, there is a signal there for a cold front to move through
later in the day which could lead to more of a focal point for
showers and any thunderstorm potential. Another cold front arrives
later Saturday, which could have a similar scenario as Friday by
leading to a more focused area of showers and thunderstorms. There
is the potential for a severe weather risk with the cold fronts on
Friday and Saturday but there is still uncertainty given this being
in the long term part of the forecast period. By Sunday, there is
still a slight chance for some showers to end the weekend and by
Monday we trend drier overall with a shower possible in the
afternoon.

[frd]

 

Next cool blast should bring excellent weather early next week. 

Afterwards a more active weather period may begin again. 

 

[high risk]

Strong signal across all global ensembles for a cooler than average Memorial Day weekend. 

[frd]

2 hours ago, high risk said:

Strong signal across all global ensembles for a cooler than average Memorial Day weekend. 

Some super long-range looks show no real heat until early June to mid June.  I like it ! 

 

[frd]

Looking at one of the coolest Memorial Day weekends coming up in the last several years. 

Surf temps near North Wildwood, NJ near 60 F.  Hopefully by Father's Day weekend we experience warmer surf zone temps.  

Meanwhile a large area of High pressure, a heat dome, is building in the very deep South across the Gulf and will cause extreme heat in Texas.  No signs of any excessive heat here for several weeks, or more. 

 

[konksw]

I feel like we’d be a lot more skeptical of cold and snow over a week out than we are now of cool and rain also over a week out. 

[frd]

Another significant rainfall event, especially for the Western areas,  may be possible the middle of next week prior to the Memorial Day weekend. 

[BlizzardNole]

Models calling for coastal low next Thu/Fri with rain and highs only low/mid 50s -- yuck!  The first part of the week looks great though

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, BlizzardNole said:

Models calling for coastal low next Thu/Fri with rain and highs only low/mid 50s -- yuck!  The first part of the week looks great though

The pattern has truly shifted.  Coastals are back on the menu!