May Medium/Long Range

[aldie 22]

7 hours ago, CAPE said:

Check out the 18z GFS.

0z a bit wetter...gfs seems to ba a bit flippy floppy right now

[BlizzardNole]

10 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO...rain moves in after sunset on Monday.  Total through Wed.

Congrats Stephens City?  Do we believe that? 

[dailylurker]

49 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

0z a bit wetter...gfs seems to ba a bit flippy floppy right now

I've learned. I go with the model with less weather. The gfs doesn't look very impressive. Here comes the walk back to sprinkles lol

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I've learned. I go with the model with less weather. The gfs doesn't look very impressive. Here comes the walk back to sprinkles lol

It is looking like the last event where interior areas do better than places further east. Hopefully I can get break a tenth of an inch this time.

[frd]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

It is looking like the last event where interior areas do better than places further east. Hopefully I can get break a tenth of an inch this time.

Hopefully, not two busted forecasts in a row. 

[frd]

No significant signs of the 90 degree mark arriving any time soon to our area.  Early indications show Memorial Day weekend almost averge temps.  

[EastCoast NPZ]

5 hours ago, BlizzardNole said:

Congrats Stephens City?  Do we believe that? 

No, we don't. 

[Weather Will]

More widespread welcome rain: 12Z globals through Wednesday.

[Jebman]

Look guys I know this has nothing to do with this discussion, and I really hope you all over there get a lot of beneficial rain while staying safe, especially in the orographic portion of the sub.

I need to know what kind of ENSO state we had in 2011, especially if it was negative-neutral, like we are having now.

Thanks.

Enjoy all the cool rain!!!

[Jebman]

Man I love it so much when pro forecasters talk dirty like this:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LWX&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The upper low that will impact the region over the next few days
will start to shear out into an open wave as it lifts northeastward
from the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday toward the Northeastern states by
Thursday. As this occurs, we should start to see a few more breaks
in the cloud cover, and as a result, should heat a little better
during the day. High temperatures are expected to reach into the 70s
on Wednesday, and then upper 70s to lower 80s on Thursday. Showers
and thunderstorms appear possible either afternoon, with the
highest coverage expected Wednesday afternoon beneath the upper low.
Model soundings show mostly saturated profiles, along with some
limited instability (around 500-1500 J/kg) and relatively weak flow
through the depth of the troposphere. As a result, slow moving,
heavy rain producing thunderstorms appear possible. While there
likely won`t be any synoptic scale boundaries to focus regeneration
of storms in any one given location, the slow storm motions and
heavy rainfall rates may be enough to cause localized instances of
flooding on the heels of heavy rains on Monday and Tuesday. Areal
coverage of storms should be a bit lower, and storm motions should
be a bit faster on Thursday. When coupled with slightly drier
vertical profiles, this should lead to a lesser threat for flooding
on Thursday.

As we move toward the end of the week, a deep upper low and
attendant strong surface low will slowly track eastward into the
Upper Great Lakes. As this occurs, rich low-level moisture will be
drawn north and east from the Gulf into the Ohio Valley and Mid-
Atlantic. Simultaneously, a strong belt of mid-level flow (35-50
knots in the 700-500 hPa layer) will spread overtop that rich low-
level moisture, advecting a remnant elevated mixed layer plume
eastward as it does so. Rich low-level moisture, steeper than
climatology mid-level lapse rates, and strong mid-level flow will
result in an environment on Friday, and potentially even Saturday as
well, characterized by both strong instability and strong deep layer
shear. The EPS and GEPS ensemble means have 2000-3000 J/kg CAPE
along with 35-50 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear. The GEFS show lesser
instability and similar shear values, but have a well-know low bias
when it comes to instability. This type of parameter space raises
concerns for severe thunderstorms. While the parameter space being
advertised at the moment by models is toward the higher end of what
we typically see in this part of the country, we`re still at day 6
and 7, and there is plenty of time for things to change, especially
when an upper level low is involved (which models notoriously
struggle with in the long range). With an elevated mixed layer
involved, there are also signs of stronger capping than we typically
see, so that could complicate things as well. For now, the end of
the week is a period to monitor for potential severe thunderstorms,
with the expectation that forecast can and will change this far
out.