May 2025 Obs/Discussion

[mreaves]

32 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

39F morning, 82F afternoon, currently 54F as it drops.

Some high diurnal ranges the past few days.

This evening might have been one of the nicest evenings ever. I’m not sure if it’s physically possible to get any better. 

[Snowedin]

6 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Stein us. Just had 4-7” of rain.

I actually don’t mind the rain, so long as it isn’t composed of days of misery mist and fog. There’s nothing like a good afternoon or evening downpour this time of year (accompanied by some good boomers) to keep things fresh!

[ineedsnow]

0z Euro trended down even more with temps.. you love to see it 

[ineedsnow]

Euro AI also took a big step down

[CoastalWx]

Some good summer weather coming next week and beyond. No big heat but N to AN. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

So much for the storm trending north west like some of you said lmao.. Looks like a good ole fashion soaking from at least the river west.. 2-4" of rain.. Complete washout Friday afternoon and Saturday here.. Travel baseball nightmare already had 4 games rescheduled for this weekend.. Hasn't been a dry weekend since March 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some good summer weather coming next week and beyond. No big heat but N to AN. 

Ya no heat but I'll take a week straight of 70-80 like the EURO has starting Tuesday

[HoarfrostHubb]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some good summer weather coming next week and beyond. No big heat but N to AN. 

I was told wire to wire HHH

[kdxken]

24 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

So much for the storm trending north west like some of you said lmao.. Looks like a good ole fashion soaking from at least the river west.. 2-4" of rain.. Complete washout Friday afternoon and Saturday here.. Travel baseball nightmare already had 4 games rescheduled for this weekend.. Hasn't been a dry weekend since March 

The NAM 12km/GFS favor a track along and to the west of the Connecticut River, UKMET/ECMWF favor a track along the 95 corridor between Providence and Boston, while the GEM favors a track over Nantucket. If this were winter, we`d be stressed over a rain/snow line. While we don`t have that issue, the focus is where the greatest QPF falls, usually northwest of the low. Given the GEM is an outlier, have some confidence the greatest QPF will fall across western southern New England

[kdxken]

36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some good summer weather coming next week and beyond. No big heat but N to AN. 

Don't think they'll be many complaints from folks.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, kdxken said:

The NAM 12km/GFS favor a track along and to the west of the Connecticut River, UKMET/ECMWF favor a track along the 95 corridor between Providence and Boston, while the GEM favors a track over Nantucket. If this were winter, we`d be stressed over a rain/snow line. While we don`t have that issue, the focus is where the greatest QPF falls, usually northwest of the low. Given the GEM is an outlier, have some confidence the greatest QPF will fall across western southern New England

might as well stack up the rain gauge totals before relying on t-storms to avoid summer drought 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

NAM's are a joke per usual again, well east of guidance.. 

[CoastalWx]

Guidance looks good for 80s imo. 

[CoastalWx]

Looks like an ok Saturday here. Some rain around BOS but better aftn. Hopefully Sunday is well west.

[CoastalWx]

Sunny breaks today. Already turning out better.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Some good summer weather coming next week and beyond. No big heat but N to AN. 

Let’s get that and some Stein and everybody will be happy.

[Chrisrotary12]

These Saturday’s can go F themselves (as he cancels his tee time for 5th time in 8 weeks).

[SJonesWX]

why are we even talking about Stein? no one in New England has had a dry month. i am over 9" MTD, with another ~1" coming this weekend. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Wagons west AWT 

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah everything on track next week. Dewy 

[CoastalWx]

It's not a hot pattern going forward and I wouldn't say all that humid. Probably a lot of 78-85 with some days of dews in 60s. Solid early June weather. June hasn't been that hot lately over last several years. 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It's not a hot pattern going forward and I wouldn't say all that humid. Probably a lot of 78-85 with some days of dews in 60s. Solid early June weather. June hasn't been that hot lately over last several years. 

Ya the worst HHH summer doesn't look to happen this year.  It will be warm but not HHH all the time like some are thinking

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Ya the worst HHH summer doesn't look to happen this year.  It will be warm but not HHH all the time like some are thinking

We'll see. I expect a AN and humid summer. That's just our new climo. But high end stuff? Yeah not sure.

[kdxken]

Not sure if it's as accurate as Jerry's squirrels but the animals are shedding their coats pretty quick.

 

[kdxken]

 

[tamarack]

9 hours ago, powderfreak said:

39F morning, 82F afternoon, currently 54F as it drops.

Some high diurnal ranges the past few days.

81/40 here, first venture into the 80s this season.  Sun was hot but dews remained modest.

[Typhoon Tip]

Teleconnections support a more significant heat  ~ D6 ... 12 at some range in there.

The operational run blend is dodging that signal with a flattened, fast progressivity to the overall handling.  It's not clear if this operational aspect is a bias, or a real a signal...

Those two indicators are somewhat in conflict at this time.

Just sayn' I wouldn't be very assured in a cooler look between D6 and 12... June 4-8th in particular is when a shallow -EPO teams up with a very strong -PNA, while the NAO is neutral positive, and while all this is happening, the operational heights just refuse to build the ridge through the teleconnector region -

There were several run cycles up through about 2.5 days ago that were substantially warmer - actually better fits... The telecon part of this puzzle has not deviated since prior to then, thru it, and up until now, either.   The operational runs have been oscillating more than less - right now, they are less.

Sometimes when the operational blends disagree with the multi- ensemble source derivatives ( the -PNA ...+EPO... -AO...blah blah), they win. Other times, they lose ...  This is probably like in the winter, when there is a loud signal for a large event in the extended, then we 'black out' for 3 days and never hear from it ... only to have it come storming back at 84 hours or whatever.   We'll have to keep an eye on it as inCREdible temperature nerds with nothing better to to do than to monitor whether we make 88s out of 77s or not.   hahaha. 

F, it's better than this recreating whining and complaining bs at least.

[UnitedWx]

4 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

0z Euro trended down even more with temps.. you love to see it 

Absolutely love it! Late spring of yore, reminds me of 30 years ago

[UnitedWx]

50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We'll see. I expect a AN and humid summer. That's just our new climo. But high end stuff? Yeah not sure.

Gut say no, but we'll see. My largest grip this spring with all the rain is that my lawn SUCKS. Overseeding next spring after chasing away the damn grubs

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

 

funny that you posted these. Sunday i was mowing my trail out back (keeps the ticks at bay), and there was a coyote right next to me, maybe 25 feet away. Then on Tuesday I was out there having an ice cold beer, and a bobcat ran down the trail, like 50 feet away. same bobcat was seen by next door neighbor in his backyard yesterday. Very cool stuff to see