May 2025 Obs/Discussion

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Good night for the bruins however. Makes that first round pick look almost like a sure thing.

Pretty much a lock. At minimum Marchand just needs to play in 2 games against the Canes. 

[powderfreak]

We are flipping over to snow flakes at 3,000ft on the snow cam.

39F in the base area with rain.

[powderfreak]

Cold.

3,600ft... 31F

2,600ft... 35F

1,500ft... 39F

[CoastalWx]

50s with 40MPH winds. Yeah not bad out lol. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Cold.

3,600ft... 31F

2,600ft... 35F

1,500ft... 39F

Unmitigated disaster that is

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Unmitigated disaster that is

I mean I’m watching for flakes, ha.  I’d take a couple degrees cooler through the column.

The old Will adage that once below 45F, start rooting for 32F.

[SJonesWX]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Unmitigated disaster that is

[Typhoon Tip]

I read a paper about this ... This is the cold meander phenomenon that's tied to CC - they manifest ( or can...) as these unusual late and early shoulder season cold excursions, even capable of snowing in Octobers and Mays.

We've known - or suspected - this frequency was increasing and have discussed it in here many times.  Here we are.  This is one of them. 

We're no where near snow at lower elevations this particular rendition, but in principle, the pattern is represented. 

 

[kdxken]

 

[Torch Tiger]

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

50s with 40MPH winds. Yeah not bad out lol. 

Way above 60F in dighton

[SouthCoastMA]

64.4 and sunny. 

garbage stretch incoming but still hoping we salvage some of Sunday and Monday 

[NoCORH4L]

Is Saturday poopy the whole day as well?

[Typhoon Tip]

According to NWS (   https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=box  )  the 4 majors are all running +4 to +5 ( decimals notwithstanding...) on the month.

I was just looking at the MEX for next week at BDL-FIT-ASH and around that arc, the machine numbers are -10 to -13 for couple few days later this week.   Probably going to correct some of the positive anomaly down. 

Funny though ... doesn't seem at all that positive to begin with.   interesting.   I think - for me anyway ... - might be susceptible to "model-based conditioning"   It's like we're in a below normal pattern, but getting above normal scalar temperatures for it.  But I'm remembering all the annoying model run after run after run... unrelenting winter look as June is coming over the f'in horizon.  

I wonder if this going to be below normal above below summer too  

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

According to NWS (   https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=box  )  the 4 majors are all running +4 to +5 ( decimals notwithstanding...) on the month.

I was just looking at the MEX for next week at BDL-FIT-ASH and around that arc, the machine numbers are -10 to -13 for couple few days later this week.   Probably going to correct some of the positive anomaly down. 

Funny though ... doesn't seem at all that positive to begin with.   interesting

a place like orange is only 0.17  above on highs but lows are 4.24 above average.. so highs have been pretty normal but lows are way above that's why it hasn't felt that bad around here

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

According to NWS (   https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=box  )  the 4 majors are all running +4 to +5 ( decimals notwithstanding...) on the month.

I was just looking at the MEX for next week at BDL-FIT-ASH and around that arc, the machine numbers are -10 to -13 for couple few days later this week.   Probably going to correct some of the positive anomaly down. 

Funny though ... doesn't seem at all that positive to begin with.   interesting

Our perceptions have become so extremely skewed. I mean think about how much talk there has been about heat/humidity (and the lack of). I mean its freaking May, especially when it comes to humidity. It seemed like in the 90's and 2000's (only using this period because well it's what I am old enough to remember) we really wouldn't get "humid" until like later June or early July and it was generally 60's dewpoints. We wouldn't sniff 70 until late July or August. 

But its freaking May 19 lol. I'd say this has been about as "normal" as a Spring can be for this region. We've had a share of shit days and a share of great days. The warmest days have seen many spots get well into the 80's. 

[dendrite]

What a way to run a nice May day

[kdxken]

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

What a way to run a nice May day

Didn't he have 73-78 for today or was that later in the week?

[Typhoon Tip]

36 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

a place like orange is only 0.17  above on highs but lows are 4.24 above average.. so highs have been pretty normal but lows are way above that's why it hasn't felt that bad around here

Yeah not sure how it breaks down by hours … it is what it is.  It’s rue tho that  lows owning the ballast of above average weight. It’s been going on for a long while at a regional/climate scale 

[dendrite]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah not sure how it breaks down by hours … it is what it is.  It’s rue tho that  lows owning the ballast of above average weight. It’s been going on for a long while at a regional/climate scale 

Yup. That’s been the overwhelming theme the last 2 decades.

Not going down the cc trap but…

CO2 up
Water vapor up
Arctic warmer/less ice

And so it all makes sense. More GHGs, more moisture in the air, more heat trapped, more clouds, more precipitation…more months with AN temps biased toward mins that seem cooler because of all of the clouds and precip. 

[dendrite]

Anyway
 

49.4° overcast and windy. Pretty miserable.

[weatherwiz]

Anyone familiar with GIS? One of my two courses in the Fall is Principles of GIS. GIS looks sick and really cool...I just am absolutely, abysmal and not equipped for coding so I'm a little nervous  I've tried a million times to try and learn/understand python and get nowhere.  

[tamarack]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Anyway
 

49.4° overcast and windy. Pretty miserable.

About the same here.  

Month avg thru yest:  +3.7   Max:  +1.0   Min:  +6.5
By 5/25 the numbers might be:  Avg, +2    Max:  -2   Min:  +6

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah not sure how it breaks down by hours … it is what it is.  It’s rue tho that  lows owning the ballast of above average weight. It’s been going on for a long while at a regional/climate scale 

ya probley just increased moisture keeping low temps up but suppressing highs a bit compared to where they could be? 

[sheahunter]

Aren't we still feeling this?

https://www.nasa.gov/earth/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere/

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

ya probley just increased moisture keeping low temps up but suppressing highs a bit compared to where they could be? 

It's a matter of 'relative magnitude'  

You'd have to look at just the min departures from norm.   then look at just the max departures from norm.  Which ever has the greatest SD wins ...

In this case we already know.  The lows, particularly spanning the last couple of decades as Brian mentioned, have been increasing more so than the highs.     He cites clouds and precip and I can't argue that.  Ultimately, high temp is a response to solar diurnal flux so... if that flux is essentially the same - which it is ... - that leads to Terrain factorization as the modulating force.  

It's not voodoo.  ha       it's probably clouds but ...I'd just maybe add to that, increased aerosol pollution and the fact that we have a whole continent upstream delivering both industrial and bio generated farts to the New England rectum upon exiting so we may have additional part per in that discussion - just supposition...

[Typhoon Tip]

i almost wonder if summers will continue to dim over eastern n/a ... and winters will continue to warm ...until there is no seasonal change. 

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

What a way to run a nice May day

Lucking out down here, high of 70 so far with 90% sunshine, wind is refreshing but annoying

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

13 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Lucking out down here, high of 70 so far with 90% sunshine, wind is refreshing but annoying

Coc’d. 

[dendrite]

22 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Lucking out down here, high of 70 so far with 90% sunshine, wind is refreshing but annoying

48° and the wind is howling

[dendrite]