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May 2025 Obs/Discussion


weatherwiz
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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It read he was envisioning chill and rains interspersed with one nice day . It’s not a deep summer look quite yet, but it looks near normal with no cold air to tap 

This isn’t winter though. The cold air to tap isn’t in the Arctic.  It’s the ocean that surrounds us on two sides.  Loop the dew points over the next two weeks… a lot of it is advecting from E/SE and it’s not humid.

My question for you is, what would have to happen for you to say it doesn’t look ideal or as good as it could be?

-4C 850s and snow?

Where’s the line this time of year?

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

This isn’t winter though. The cold air to tap isn’t in the Arctic.  It’s the ocean that surrounds us on two sides.  Loop the dew points over the next two weeks… a lot of it is advecting from E/SE and it’s not humid.

My question for you is, what would have to happen for you to say it doesn’t look ideal or as good as it could be?

-4C 850s and snow?

Where’s the line this time of year?

It’s NW flow . That’s not ocean flow . . Show me May 2005 modeled . This looks nothing like that .

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How will you take advantage of 50 and rain Thursday ? What will you do out in it to enjoy ?

 

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Awful is in the eyes of the beholder. It looks awful overall to me. ineedvitaminD will love it.

It won't be 50 if the GFS is right

Trust me I get out anytime I can.. I don't enjoy the rain but I do like it cool.. heat does nothing for me unless I'm at the beach

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s NW flow . That’s not ocean flow . . Show me May 2005 modeled . This looks nothing like that .

I think the 2m 40s are overdone, but I still think it’s a lot of clouds, showers, and 50s to near 60. 

I just want some damn ridging and days of sfc highs even if it means 35° type mornings. I can’t take the clouds and frequent rain much more. This weather is making me radicalized. 

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think the 2m 40s are overdone, but I still think it’s a lot of clouds, showers, and 50s to near 60. 

I just want some damn ridging and days of sfc highs even if it means 35° type mornings. I can’t take the clouds and frequent rain much more. This weather is making me radicalized. 

But in late May reality says it’s a few days like today with clouds/ sunny breaks and 60’s - near 70 but mainly dry other than the fropa . And the nice days are 73-78 .

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12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s NW flow . That’s not ocean flow . . Show me May 2005 modeled . This looks nothing like that .

I won’t lie, maybe you’ve seen more data but about half the days the next two weeks look like a 925-850 flow out of an easterly component.  The other half is N/W.

Which I think is why most are talking about the same weather.  You’re just more positive on anything that isn’t straight May 2005.  Others are like it’s not the nicest it could be.

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9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think the 2m 40s are overdone, but I still think it’s a lot of clouds, showers, and 50s to near 60. 

I just want some damn ridging and days of sfc highs even if it means 35° type mornings. I can’t take the clouds and frequent rain much more. This weather is making me radicalized. 

Agreed, that’s the rub.  The 35F to 75F or 40F to 82F with wall-to-wall sun this is not.

Low diurnal change, with clouds and some rain.  Dry periods still fine outdoors but not beautiful.

We’ll get through it, ha.

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Agreed, that’s the rub.  The 35F to 75F or 40F to 82F with wall-to-wall sun this is not.

Low diurnal change, with clouds and some rain.  Dry periods still fine outdoors but not beautiful.

We’ll get through it, ha.

Add me to the list. Extended periods of clouds and intermittent rain don't do much for me. Hopefully only 2 days of total ass this week and we muddle through the rest.

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s NW flow . That’s not ocean flow . . Show me May 2005 modeled . This looks nothing like that .

What’s above 850-specifically h5.   A cold pool has messed up many a beautiful day.

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6 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Going to be tough to get a really hot summer here, if for any reason we don't even look to be building any sustained or early heat in the southwest. There's been fluxes of some big early season heat in the Southwest into Texas but not sustaining.  

Yea it still hasn't gotten started here yet. We've had a couple days of 100+ and then it's being knocked down to the 80s and lower 90s for several days. Last week we even had multiple mostly overcast days. This upcoming week it looks like we might get our warmest days of the year Wednesday through Friday with highs topping out around 104, but cooling down again after with another trough approaching.

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1 minute ago, Saguaro said:

Yea it still hasn't gotten started here yet. We've had a couple days of 100+ and then it's being knocked down to the 80s and lower 90s for several days. Last week we even had multiple mostly overcast days. This upcoming week it looks like we might get our warmest days of the year Wednesday through Friday with highs topping out around 104, but cooling down again after with another trough approaching.

Where are you located? Tolland Connecticut?

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I’m not sure what we are freaking discussing here. If the models show its was going to be above normal, then we would talk about it being above normal. Every major global ensemble looks to be -5 to -10 for most of the next 2 weeks. I’m not rooting for it, just discussing what the forecast is. Looks to be active as well, with nice days mixed in. Jeez…

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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

What’s above 850-specifically h5.   A cold pool has messed up many a beautiful day.

This is a great post.  Back to basics.  No charts, no models… just upper level cold pool aloft in the means.

Some downslope dandy and some moisture before another front.. Unsettled.  At least up in NNE, we are probably f*cked with a cold pool overhead.  The BrianWs south coast environments are probably quite nice at times.

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11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Not great, but if it’s dry, You’ll have shots at 65-70

Agree. If we can avoid a lot of rain, outdoor activities, other than beach related things, can still go on. Hiking, golfing, bike riding are all good in cool, dry weather. 

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We aren't seeing any sustained high heat and humidity until at least mid-June, which, at that point, is kind of climo for SNE anyway.  I think we will get our share of swamp ass days but mostly 80's not 90's.  Lame severe season and then lame tropical season is a general rule.

  I'm not an ACATT guy.  I like a warm summer and warm summer nights, just not extended periods of gross humidity.  However, I guess I'm probably one of the few here, that is fine with sub-zero temps in the winter with no snow on the ground. 

Weather is fun, enjoy what you get.

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