2025-2026 ENSO

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, Spartman said:

Jonathan Wall apparently bringing up 2001-2002 regarding the Phase 8 MJO

https://x.com/_jwall/status/1997672498993762417

Maybe the case, I haven't checked, but November and the beginning of December that year was a polar opposite temp-wise in the east to this year. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

 

There will be a warmup I think but hopefully short-lived.

It should be if there is a warmup. Lag in the MJO would put us near the holidays.

[mitchnick]

On 12/6/2025 at 9:22 AM, bluewave said:

Lake Superior is still the 2nd warmest on record since 1995 for December 5th.

https://apps.glerl.noaa.gov/coastwatch/webdata/statistic/pdf/all_year_glsea_avg_s.pdf

 

 

 

 

Odd. Oisst shows it predominantly below normal as of 12/6. Something isn't right, not that it matters. 

[BlizzardWx]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

The support for a warm up late month is this - implies a big storm in the Southwest gets stuck around Dec 21-25 in a Rex Block and floods the East with warmer air in that period. Probably doesn't last long. Then you revert back to canonical -WPO for a while. But, later on, six 6-10 days out, the same maps over NE Asia imply storms get cut off over the NM/AX/MX/TX borderlands either via weak subtropical impulses or lost waves from the Northern jet. If some of those eject east when it is cold, that's a better signal for the East for storms and cold, but that's very late in December, probably Dec 30 into week one of January. The deep blues over southern Kamchatka were last there late Oct to week one of Nov, when we had the three week stormier period in the Southwest from Nov 15-Dec 5 or so as the timing pretty much always works at a 17-21 day lead. Your call or not whether you believe it.

Do you see any decent winter weather opportunities for the southern plains moving forward? 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, Spartman said:

Jonathan Wall apparently bringing up 2001-2002 regarding the Phase 8 MJO

https://x.com/_jwall/status/1997672498993762417

I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he’s not counting weak phase 8 (inside circle). But even so, these had outside the circle phase 8 in Dec since 2001:

2017: 

 

2009:

2007:

2002:

@mitchnick