2025-2026 ENSO

[snowman19]

17 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You don't do well in ++NAO/-PNA either

We may have to wait until the 2nd half of December for snowfall. 

If Paul Roundy is correct, the 2nd half of December is going to have more -PNA/RNA than the 1st half

[bluewave]

On 11/21/2025 at 11:43 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This probably ties into the rule concerning the higher amplitude MJO waves in October preceding colder winters that @bluewavehas referenced, though I know that is a more recent phenomenon. I do wonder if those seasons were higher amplitude in October. Looks like 2010 would fit the mold...not so much 2005 and 2000. 

It’s good that all of us using different methods had a weaker PNA for this December than the record +PNA La Niña mismatch last December following the stronger amplitude MJO 5 over +2.70 in October 2024. 

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I said back to approaching climo by Xmas week, and that run reflects that.

Yes. You went against the grain and said weeks ago that you thought the November stratospheric warming was going to be a weaker wave reflection event and the SPV was going to rebound and strengthen quickly again mid-late December. If that works out, then it will have been a very impressive call

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The more +NAO following the wave reflection in concert with the stronger Maritime Continent forcing will both act to enhance the Southeast ridge as we had into December. Remember, the original forecasts for the first week of December didn’t have any Southeast ridge. Models regularly underestimate the Southeast ridge influence in the long range. Either through the 5 day means or with the storm track which amplifies the Southeast ridge on the days of the storms. 
 

New EPS December 1-8 forecast

Old EPS December 1-8 EPS forecast

 

 

The models are really struggling. Thanksgiving and its weekend warmup went poof so is the week 1 warmup which consists of plus 20 day skewing the entire week 

Here's another warm bust in the making 

 

[MJO812]

The 1st week of December does look mild though.  Delayed but not denied ?

Im going to remain patient. The Nina is dying and the MJO is going to go into 7/8 and most likely 1.