2025-2026 ENSO

[SnowGoose69]

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Correlations with teleconnections e.g., the PNA, provide one perspective in addressing questions e.g., will it snow? But to get a better understanding, one needs to look more deeply. For example, the spread of PNA values for snow events can result in a low correlation. However, if one categorizes events by PNA- or PNA+, one can get distinctive differences in the frequency of events e.g., just over two-thirds of New York City's measurable snow events during winter occur when the PNA is positive.

Here's daily snowfall and PNA data for New York City's Central Park:

I'm trying to figure out what 9.5 or so event is at -1.2...probably one of the 2010-2011 events.  Dec 84 and Dec 90 clearly present there as the 6 and 7 inch events.  

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@bluewaveWhich composite were you using to show the increased Pacific jet since 2018-2019? It doesn't seem that evident here...not doubting you. Just looking for a graphic that illustrates it better.

This was the strongest North Pacific Jet on record for a 7 year period from 2019 to 2025. You can see how much stronger it was than earlier defined intervals. Very extensive area from Asia to North America from 30N to 75N.

 

 

 

 

 

[SnowGoose69]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This jet extension was well modeled on the ensembles 2 weeks ago and it’s verifying. Maybe (hopefully) the models will have some clue about the long range this coming winter
 

I felt they were great last winter as far as seeing the pattern 10 plus days out.  The prior winter as well as 22-23 they were very bad.

[donsutherland1]

17 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I'm trying to figure out what 9.5 or so event is at -1.2...probably one of the 2010-2011 events.  Dec 84 and Dec 90 clearly present there as the 6 and 7 inch events.  

February 13, 2014: 9.5"; PNA: -1.097

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Here is the one for 2011-12 and 2012-13. Easy to see why it didn't snow during those years: 

[BlizzardWx]

I'm not sure exactly how you would do it, but I know I'd like to see more winter outlooks or past winter discussion focusing on snowfall potential rather than what fell at specific points when possible. Maybe another way to look at it would be to say is this objectively a snow producing pattern even if it didn't occur at Central Park (or wherever). If we could remove luck (mesoscale patterns) from more of our analysis I imagine it would be more constructive to discussion of the patterns at hand. I think some of what @donsutherland1 has been showing is kind of a step in that direction. You could in theory score a pattern based on its historical correlation to snowy patterns to say how good a winter should have been regardless of what actually happened at some point. Just a thought. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Here is the one for 2011-12 and 2012-13. Easy to see why it didn't snow during those years: 

You have a bad habit of applying your own back yard experience to everyone else. 2012-2013 was a fantastic season throughout SNE, with the largest blizzard since 1978.

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You have a bad habit of applying your own back yard experience to everyone else. 2012-2013 was a fantastic season throughout SNE, with the largest blizzard since 1978.

February 8-9, 2013 was a very big snowstorm, especially in parts of CT.

From Fairfield: 

[BlizzardWx]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You have a bad habit of applying your own back yard experience to everyone else. 2012-2013 was a fantastic season throughout SNE, with the largest blizzard since 1978.

FWIW this is exactly what I was talking about in my last post. People need to stop reading into what happened at exactly their house (mesoscale randomness) and assume it means anything in the big picture. That level of precision is noise and does not mean a pattern was good or bad. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

February 8-9, 2013 was a very big snowstorm, especially in parts of CT.

From Fairfield: 

I don’t post in here (I’m really just discovering this awesome thread!) but yeah, the Great Blizzard of 2013 earns its name. 1888, 1978, (October) 2011, and 2013 stand alone in meteorological exceptionalism and societal impact in CT.