snowman19 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 35 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: this is really interesting b/c if im not mistaken IOD/IO forcing has the highest correlation to +WPO, so you wouldn't think that it would exactly be favorable for NAO maybe through stratospheric reflection events? Yes. I saw a study (probably the one you’re referring to) years ago that tied IOD forcing into the WPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said: to which statement (assuming both) IOD's effect really depends on strength/location of ENSO... a study i read the other day about CP/EP ninas and the subsequent impact on NAO saw that CP ENSO had statistically significant correlation(SSTA between 180-150W) to either +NAO/-NAO depending on if it was cp nina/nino respectively, but the correlation for EP ninas/ninos was too weak to discern anything as concrete IOD/WPO correlation. I don't doubt the La Nina correlation....Modoki favors positive NAO/flat Aleutian ridging and EP is more favorable for negative NAO/poleward Aleutian ridging. Anyway, obviously exceptions with regard to both correlations. I would favor weak +WPO/NAO in the DJFM mean this season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said: this is really interesting b/c if im not mistaken IOD/IO forcing has the highest correlation to +WPO, so you wouldn't think that it would exactly be favorable for NAO maybe through stratospheric reflection events? This year is seemingly lining up to be an interesting case to watch regarding all of this. The paper did mention the addition of enso forcing alters things. Sometimes drastically. However over the course of the last 30 days, it does appear to be a stand out feature on the VP200 charts and OLR charts. I didn't notice any recent years, when looking back through that data, looking quite like this. So certainly a very valid feature to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 13 minutes ago, snowman19 said: ACE as of 12Z today is at 93.8. A 100+ is still not yet near a guarantee although it remains very highly likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 55 minutes ago Share Posted 55 minutes ago NOAA/CPC has upgraded to a La Niña advisory today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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