2025-2026 ENSO

[PhiEaglesfan712]

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is why it will be more challenging for Boston and other l-95 cities to the south to end this current much lower snowfall period like they did back in the early to mid-90s without a major VEI 7 or larger volcanic eruption to cool the climate down temporarily. 

 

Boston average snowfall 2019-2025….26.6”……DJF average temperature….34.6°

Boston average snowfall 1986-1992….29.9”……DJF average temperature….32.2°

Outstanding seasons following that lower snowfall period which ended the 7 year low

1992-1993…..83.9”……31.4°

1993-1994…..96.3”……27.8°

1995-1996…..107.6”……30.9°

Of course, those mid-90s seasons (especially 92-93 and 93-94) were aided by the temporary cool down in climate due to Pinatubo in 1991.

[snowman19]

AAM forecast: Ninaish for at least most of month 

The -IOD is enhacing it

[snowman19]

19 hours ago, GaWx said:

ACE, which yesterday got to a NN 91.64, is now taking a break for awhile pending mainly what the E MDR system and any possible W Caribbean system will or won’t do next week (Bahamas AOI is very weak with only a 10% chance): note that it got to 29th out of the last 75. It just missed 2018 though it went ahead of 2024, 2016, and 2022 (2022 not shown because it was then 78.85). But, 2024 and 2016 should soon pull well ahead of 2025 during this expected 2025 respite:

 

 So, getting 100+ is still not yet certain even though it’s highly likely. I’ll give it a 95% chance since it’s La Nina and recent late seasons have been active.

The new AI model runs want absolutely nothing at all to do with Atlantic tropical development the next couple of weeks. They actually did a very good job with the last 2 hurricanes, insisting that they were never going to even come close to making landfall in the SE. They actually schooled the operationals and ensembles of the other models. Are they onto something this time too? All we can do is wait and see at this point

[donsutherland1]

To illustrate @bluewavepoint about warming winters and reduced frequency of 50” snow seasons in NYC, here’s a chart that depicts winters with mean temperatures below 35 (blue) and 35 or above (red) and seasonal snowfall.

[snowman19]

This solar cycle is really taking its time to descend. September finished with sunspots at 135 for the month and the flux that started in August continues