2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

On 1/17/2026 at 11:24 AM, GaWx said:

 The largest DJF 2 day drop of the EPO down into a -EPO was 367 (2/9-11/1996) followed by 364 (1/16-18/61). There’s a slight chance these are exceeded 1/14-16/26. We won’t know until Mon (reporting lag). If they aren’t exceeded, it would have a good chance to end up 3rd biggest drop (300+). The 1/14 EPO was +88. So, to get the record drop, the 1/16 would need to go <-279.

 This isn’t a measure of the strongest EPO ridge but rather it’s a measure of the fastest developing one.

Records go back to 1948.

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

The #s are out. We just had the 3rd largest 2 day drop in winter of the EPO into negative territory on record back to 1948:

2026 01 14   88.01
2026 01 15  -92.49
2026 01 16 -254.34

 So, it dropped 342 from 1/14 to 1/16. The only two larger 2 day winter drops are not much higher: the 367 of 2/9-11/1996 and the 364 of 1/16-18/1961.

 As I said, this isn’t a measure of the strongest EPO ridges. Rather, it is a measure of the speed in establishing a new strong EPO ridge.

[Krs4Lfe]

2025-2026 winter now matches 2024-2025 winter for only 5 named winter storms by the weather channel thus far. 
Tied for record low number; highlighting the inactivity across the US aside from Midwest and northeast. 
They’ve been naming since 2012-2013 winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/01/anatomy-of-very-wintry-latter-january.html

[EastonSN+]

[MJO812]

27 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Beautiful 

[donsutherland1]

A westerly wind burst appears to be developing. However, at present, it has not yet translated to the surface, as the SOI has remained at or above +20 for four consecutive days. The most recent ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C during the week centered around January 14th. That's almost identical to its six-week moving average of -0.68°C. So, at least through the most recent week, the La Niña has been remarkably stable.

The La Niña should gradually weaken, not collapse. Weekly ENSO Region 3.4 values could rise to neutral-cool levels late this month or during February. However, the fade appears likely to be gradual.

As a result, La Niña will likely continue to exert an influence on the atmosphere through at least the first week of February. The AAM- is consistent with a La Niña-type pattern.

The WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern will likely be the biggest driver of North American weather conditions through the remainder of January. That pattern is typically the coldest January pattern for the eastern half or third of the U.S., along with at least southern Ontario and Quebec. One or more lows in the single digits and one or more highs in the teens is possible in New York City. Subzero cold is likely in places like Chicago, Detroit, and Toronto.

The predominantly positive PNA comes with a heightened risk, relative to climatology, of moderate or significant snowstorms for the East Coast. With the PNA likely to be mainly positive into or through at least the first week of February, it is likely that at least one or more of the following cities will see at least one 6" or above snowstorm from the remainder of January through the first week of February: Baltimore, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, and Washington, DC. 

Warmer than normal conditions will generally prevail in the Southwest.

[GaWx]

Due to much colder 2 week forecasts vs how it looked on Friday, natural gas is now up an incredible 19%!! If anywhere near this rise were to hold til the close, this would likely be the largest % daily rise in years:

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looking further down the road, do we see another wind reversal in Feb?

 

 

Book it.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Due to much colder 2 week forecasts vs how it looked on Friday, natural gas is now up an incredible 19%!! If anywhere near this rise were to hold til the close, this would likely be the largest % daily rise in years:

I made 2 posts about it being a case study, based on the CPC's cold long range forecasts for the 2nd half of January. Looks like it's going to verify as a predictor to the market. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 12/31/2025 at 8:20 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I want to do a little experiment.. CPC vs Natural Gas Futures. I am so tempted to trade this on my own, but I think a series of practice scenarios played out will give me a higher confidence, instead of jumping right in. 

Since mid-August, the pattern in the East has been cool. Don't quote me, but it might have been our coldest 4.5 month period relative to average in 10+ years. I personally think the Solar Max, with aurora borealis extending south, starting in May 2024, and lasting through Fall 2025 was associated with a pattern that gave us a lot of negative 500mb height anomalies 60-90N, for the first time since a 2020-2023: a period that was always warm 500mb everywhere. I made a list of analogs that had that warm season pattern (-SLP 60-90N), and it gave me a strong -AO signal for the following cold season (data good since 2012). 

CPC forecast today is going with a cold January in the Northeast!

What's interesting is the very warm forecast for the 1st half of January, released the same time (today):

That means Jan 18-31 is projected to be very below average in the Northeast.. now the first 5 days of the month are also cold with -NAO, but it's still a pretty big difference that needs to occur for the 2nd half of the month for that monthly forecast to verify. 

Natural Gas has been falling, and the March contract at $3.159 is very cheap, and favors a more +NAO Winter (I used a $4.50 as an "even" mark.. below it is more +NAO expected, above is more -NAO expected)

The theory is, when and if it gets very cold in the 2nd half of January, will Natural Gas start rising every day, or is the forecast already baked in? I don't think it's in the market, or else the price would be higher in my opinion. I'm only talking about a 2 week period, so the difference will not be big, but let's see if the price rises, when and if it rises, in the 2nd half of January. To be continued... 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

On 12/31/2025 at 8:20 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I want to do a little experiment.. CPC vs Natural Gas Futures. I am so tempted to trade this on my own, but I think a series of practice scenarios played out will give me a higher confidence, instead of jumping right in. 

Since mid-August, the pattern in the East has been cool. Don't quote me, but it might have been our coldest 4.5 month period relative to average in 10+ years. I personally think the Solar Max, with aurora borealis extending south, starting in May 2024, and lasting through Fall 2025 was associated with a pattern that gave us a lot of negative 500mb height anomalies 60-90N, for the first time since a 2020-2023: a period that was always warm 500mb everywhere. I made a list of analogs that had that warm season pattern (-SLP 60-90N), and it gave me a strong -AO signal for the following cold season (data good since 2012). 

CPC forecast today is going with a cold January in the Northeast!

What's interesting is the very warm forecast for the 1st half of January, released the same time (today):

That means Jan 18-31 is projected to be very below average in the Northeast.. now the first 5 days of the month are also cold with -NAO, but it's still a pretty big difference that needs to occur for the 2nd half of the month for that monthly forecast to verify. 

Natural Gas has been falling, and the March contract at $3.159 is very cheap, and favors a more +NAO Winter (I used a $4.50 as an "even" mark.. below it is more +NAO expected, above is more -NAO expected)

The theory is, when and if it gets very cold in the 2nd half of January, will Natural Gas start rising every day, or is the forecast already baked in? I don't think it's in the market, or else the price would be higher in my opinion. I'm only talking about a 2 week period, so the difference will not be big, but let's see if the price rises, when and if it rises, in the 2nd half of January. To be continued... 

 

CPC nails it again. 

[MJO812]

Weeklies are incredible in the east through February 20.

[EasternLI]

That really is a pretty good clustering showing up on today's run. 

[BlizzardWx]

Well at least down here it looks like we finally get some winter this weekend. Although it still ranges from basically nothing on the ICON to a foot or more on the ECMWF. Right on schedule for Nina climo. 

[snowman19]

35 minutes ago, BlizzardWx said:

Well at least down here it looks like we finally get some winter this weekend. Although it still ranges from basically nothing on the ICON to a foot or more on the ECMWF. Right on schedule for Nina climo. 

This winter has been following classic “front-loaded” canonical La Niña climo in the east to a tee since late November

[roardog]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This winter has been following classic “front-loaded” canonical La Niña climo in the east to a tee since late November

I don’t know. When I think front loaded winter, I don’t think of a massive arctic outbreak in late January and possible +PNA going into February. 

[roardog]

On another note, I noticed the CFS is trying to take us to a very strong Nino next winter. I wonder if it’s on to something or it’s just reactionary to what’s currently happening. 

[EasternLI]

Nice update from the CPC MJO desk today. Here are the bullet points:

• The MJO amplified over the last week, with a strong projection over the West Pacific on the RMMbased MJO index.

• While eastward propagation has not been established on the RMM index, it is highly evident in the
upper-level wind field.

• Destructive interference between the MJO and the ongoing La Niña base state may be helping to slow
the eastward propagation of the low-level winds and convection.

• Dynamical model forecasts indicate an active MJO pattern, with the signal crossing the Pacific and
Western Hemisphere through late January and early February.

• Tropical cyclogenesis is most likely to occur in the vicinity of Australia or across the southwestern
Pacific.

• The MJO is likely to play a role in the evolution of the midlatitude pattern, acting to reinforce the cold
signal across eastern North America.

• Following a less coherent pattern for much of December, a robust MJO signal re-emerged at the start of
2026. The enhanced phase is currently over the far western Pacific.

• The spatial presentation of the upper-level velocity potential anomalies has a Wave-1 signature
consistent with MJO activity.

• A strong couplet of easterlies (westerlies) has exhibited eastward propagation, and are currently
centered over the Maritime Continent (East Pacific). This is consistent with robust MJO activity.

• A shift in the position of the strong upper-level low in the vicinity of Hawaii helped calm the active
pattern that began in early January.

• The low-level wind field is less coherent than the upper-level signals, possibly due to destructive
interference between the MJO and the ongoing La Niña event in the equatorial Pacific.

• Trade winds have weakened somewhat across the equatorial Pacific, especially north of the
Equator.

• A strong westerly wind burst is ongoing just north of New Guinea, over the heart of the West Pacific
Warm Pool.

• Enhanced convection has begun to propagate to the West Pacific, mostly north and south of the Equator, as the
MJO interferes with the La Niña base state.

• Suppressed convection has overspread the equatorial Indian Ocean, consistent with MJO activity.

• Suppressed convection continues across the central Pacific, mostly south of the Equator. 

• Both the GEFS and ECMWF depict rapid eastward propagation during Week-1, followed by a brief
slowdown of the index and then continued propagation across the Western Hemisphere.

• Other modes of anomalous tropical convective activity such as Kelvin waves may be at play in this
uneven evolution.

• The MJO is likely to continue playing a significant role in the evolution of the global tropical
convective pattern for the next few weeks.

• The GEFS RMM-based OLR tool depicts a
robust signal, with somewhat slow eastward
propagation across the Pacific.

• The constructed analog tool also shows a highly
amplified signal, with a better established eastward
propagation across the Pacfic.

[MJO812]

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This winter has been following classic “front-loaded” canonical La Niña climo in the east to a tee since late November

No it hasn't

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, roardog said:

I don’t know. When I think front loaded winter, I don’t think of a massive arctic outbreak in late January and possible +PNA going into February. 

Exactly

This isnt a typical La Nina. Its a weakening one.

[snowman19]

Just now, MJO812 said:

No it hasn't

You have no idea what you’re talking about

[PhiEaglesfan712]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Exactly

This isnt a typical La Nina. Its a weakening one.

22-23 was a weakening la nina, and that one torched in January and February.

[roardog]

13 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

22-23 was a weakening la nina, and that one torched in January and February.

I remember the MEI getting to something like -2.3 or something in 2022. I think that’s why that winter acted exactly like how I would picture a super Nina to act. 

[JACKASS]

39 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You have no idea what you’re talking about

He only repeats what he's read on social media.

Did the exact same thing in OT.

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

He only repeats what he's read on social media.

Did the exact same thing in OT.

And yet I have predicted everything right so far while your friend snowman has been wrong. 

You seem like another stupid troll just like him. 

Anyway an exciting period is coming up.

[michsnowfreak]

We had seen talk of 2013-14 similarities in here. Obviously while nowhere near as severe, today reminded me of 2014 with the constant bitter winds blowing and drifting snow throughout the day, and knowing the rest of January looks frigid. 

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

We had seen talk of 2013-14 similarities in here. Obviously while nowhere near as severe, today reminded me of 2014 with the constant bitter winds blowing and drifting snow throughout the day, and knowing the rest of January looks frigid. 

Erie is at around 50” on the season and the lake is about to freeze. Which means at the airport, we need another 50” to hit average and we’re relying purely on synoptic. That’s a very tough ask. 13-14 was above the 105” average and even last year was.