2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

On 1/17/2026 at 11:24 AM, GaWx said:

 The largest DJF 2 day drop of the EPO down into a -EPO was 367 (2/9-11/1996) followed by 364 (1/16-18/61). There’s a slight chance these are exceeded 1/14-16/26. We won’t know until Mon (reporting lag). If they aren’t exceeded, it would have a good chance to end up 3rd biggest drop (300+). The 1/14 EPO was +88. So, to get the record drop, the 1/16 would need to go <-279.

 This isn’t a measure of the strongest EPO ridge but rather it’s a measure of the fastest developing one.

Records go back to 1948.

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

The #s are out. We just had the 3rd largest 2 day drop in winter of the EPO into negative territory on record back to 1948:

2026 01 14   88.01
2026 01 15  -92.49
2026 01 16 -254.34

 So, it dropped 342 from 1/14 to 1/16. The only two larger 2 day winter drops are not much higher: the 367 of 2/9-11/1996 and the 364 of 1/16-18/1961.

 As I said, this isn’t a measure of the strongest EPO ridges. Rather, it is a measure of the speed in establishing a new strong EPO ridge.

[Krs4Lfe]

2025-2026 winter now matches 2024-2025 winter for only 5 named winter storms by the weather channel thus far. 
Tied for record low number; highlighting the inactivity across the US aside from Midwest and northeast. 
They’ve been naming since 2012-2013 winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/01/anatomy-of-very-wintry-latter-january.html

[EastonSN+]

[MJO812]

27 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Beautiful 

[donsutherland1]

A westerly wind burst appears to be developing. However, at present, it has not yet translated to the surface, as the SOI has remained at or above +20 for four consecutive days. The most recent ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C during the week centered around January 14th. That's almost identical to its six-week moving average of -0.68°C. So, at least through the most recent week, the La Niña has been remarkably stable.

The La Niña should gradually weaken, not collapse. Weekly ENSO Region 3.4 values could rise to neutral-cool levels late this month or during February. However, the fade appears likely to be gradual.

As a result, La Niña will likely continue to exert an influence on the atmosphere through at least the first week of February. The AAM- is consistent with a La Niña-type pattern.

The WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern will likely be the biggest driver of North American weather conditions through the remainder of January. That pattern is typically the coldest January pattern for the eastern half or third of the U.S., along with at least southern Ontario and Quebec. One or more lows in the single digits and one or more highs in the teens is possible in New York City. Subzero cold is likely in places like Chicago, Detroit, and Toronto.

The predominantly positive PNA comes with a heightened risk, relative to climatology, of moderate or significant snowstorms for the East Coast. With the PNA likely to be mainly positive into or through at least the first week of February, it is likely that at least one or more of the following cities will see at least one 6" or above snowstorm from the remainder of January through the first week of February: Baltimore, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, and Washington, DC. 

Warmer than normal conditions will generally prevail in the Southwest.

[GaWx]

Due to much colder 2 week forecasts vs how it looked on Friday, natural gas is now up an incredible 19%!! If anywhere near this rise were to hold til the close, this would likely be the largest % daily rise in years:

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looking further down the road, do we see another wind reversal in Feb?

 

 

Book it.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Due to much colder 2 week forecasts vs how it looked on Friday, natural gas is now up an incredible 19%!! If anywhere near this rise were to hold til the close, this would likely be the largest % daily rise in years:

I made 2 posts about it being a case study, based on the CPC's cold long range forecasts for the 2nd half of January. Looks like it's going to verify as a predictor to the market. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 12/31/2025 at 8:20 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I want to do a little experiment.. CPC vs Natural Gas Futures. I am so tempted to trade this on my own, but I think a series of practice scenarios played out will give me a higher confidence, instead of jumping right in. 

Since mid-August, the pattern in the East has been cool. Don't quote me, but it might have been our coldest 4.5 month period relative to average in 10+ years. I personally think the Solar Max, with aurora borealis extending south, starting in May 2024, and lasting through Fall 2025 was associated with a pattern that gave us a lot of negative 500mb height anomalies 60-90N, for the first time since a 2020-2023: a period that was always warm 500mb everywhere. I made a list of analogs that had that warm season pattern (-SLP 60-90N), and it gave me a strong -AO signal for the following cold season (data good since 2012). 

CPC forecast today is going with a cold January in the Northeast!

What's interesting is the very warm forecast for the 1st half of January, released the same time (today):

That means Jan 18-31 is projected to be very below average in the Northeast.. now the first 5 days of the month are also cold with -NAO, but it's still a pretty big difference that needs to occur for the 2nd half of the month for that monthly forecast to verify. 

Natural Gas has been falling, and the March contract at $3.159 is very cheap, and favors a more +NAO Winter (I used a $4.50 as an "even" mark.. below it is more +NAO expected, above is more -NAO expected)

The theory is, when and if it gets very cold in the 2nd half of January, will Natural Gas start rising every day, or is the forecast already baked in? I don't think it's in the market, or else the price would be higher in my opinion. I'm only talking about a 2 week period, so the difference will not be big, but let's see if the price rises, when and if it rises, in the 2nd half of January. To be continued...