2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

On 1/17/2026 at 11:24 AM, GaWx said:

 The largest DJF 2 day drop of the EPO down into a -EPO was 367 (2/9-11/1996) followed by 364 (1/16-18/61). There’s a slight chance these are exceeded 1/14-16/26. We won’t know until Mon (reporting lag). If they aren’t exceeded, it would have a good chance to end up 3rd biggest drop (300+). The 1/14 EPO was +88. So, to get the record drop, the 1/16 would need to go <-279.

 This isn’t a measure of the strongest EPO ridge but rather it’s a measure of the fastest developing one.

Records go back to 1948.

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

The #s are out. We just had the 3rd largest 2 day drop in winter of the EPO into negative territory on record back to 1948:

2026 01 14   88.01
2026 01 15  -92.49
2026 01 16 -254.34

 So, it dropped 342 from 1/14 to 1/16. The only two larger 2 day winter drops are not much higher: the 367 of 2/9-11/1996 and the 364 of 1/16-18/1961.

 As I said, this isn’t a measure of the strongest EPO ridges. Rather, it is a measure of the speed in establishing a new strong EPO ridge.

[Krs4Lfe]

2025-2026 winter now matches 2024-2025 winter for only 5 named winter storms by the weather channel thus far. 
Tied for record low number; highlighting the inactivity across the US aside from Midwest and northeast. 
They’ve been naming since 2012-2013 winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/01/anatomy-of-very-wintry-latter-january.html

[EastonSN+]

[MJO812]

27 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Beautiful 

[donsutherland1]

A westerly wind burst appears to be developing. However, at present, it has not yet translated to the surface, as the SOI has remained at or above +20 for four consecutive days. The most recent ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C during the week centered around January 14th. That's almost identical to its six-week moving average of -0.68°C. So, at least through the most recent week, the La Niña has been remarkably stable.

The La Niña should gradually weaken, not collapse. Weekly ENSO Region 3.4 values could rise to neutral-cool levels late this month or during February. However, the fade appears likely to be gradual.

As a result, La Niña will likely continue to exert an influence on the atmosphere through at least the first week of February. The AAM- is consistent with a La Niña-type pattern.

The WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern will likely be the biggest driver of North American weather conditions through the remainder of January. That pattern is typically the coldest January pattern for the eastern half or third of the U.S., along with at least southern Ontario and Quebec. One or more lows in the single digits and one or more highs in the teens is possible in New York City. Subzero cold is likely in places like Chicago, Detroit, and Toronto.

The predominantly positive PNA comes with a heightened risk, relative to climatology, of moderate or significant snowstorms for the East Coast. With the PNA likely to be mainly positive into or through at least the first week of February, it is likely that at least one or more of the following cities will see at least one 6" or above snowstorm from the remainder of January through the first week of February: Baltimore, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, and Washington, DC. 

Warmer than normal conditions will generally prevail in the Southwest.