2025-2026 ENSO

[EasternLI]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the EPS shows this colder wedging pretty well. might be a bit overdone, but I doubt really torches from NYC north. hell, New England can even see some mixed systems

Check out what the top 2 clusters (left 1 to right 2) from this run end up with by the end of that same period... 

[Cobalt]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Who on here said the word torch? 

You know who

On 12/9/2025 at 8:18 PM, qg_omega said:

Historic torch is gearing up for second half of December, rubber band going to snap back hard

 

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Can’t wait for the inevitable weenie “it’s only warm aloft!!” proclamations. Right out of the JB playbook. Chapter One

True, but its really no different than the other crowd during periods of cold. We will start to see random posts about warmth elsewhere on the planet.

[raindancewx]

CPC now has the 8-14 day period stormy in the Southwest, which is consistent with the storm timing at the 17-21 day lead I posted a while ago. Also, we have the big warm up coming as expected. If you remember, the Canadian showed the US not very cold for December, despite the big cold wave everyone knew was coming early month. So it looks like the model did a pretty good job.

Longer term, the look over NE Asia right about now looks like a big high centered over the Plains and a potent low over the SW US or Northern MX in 17-21 days, roughly in the Dec 29/30 to Jan 2/3 window.

[TheClimateChanger]

JB coming out with the 1985 analog. What a joke... IIRC, it was something like -20F with a -50F windchill at Cleveland. There is zero chance of that happening. Must be trying to bail out a buddy who's long $NG. 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

There is zero chance of that happening. Must be trying to bail out a buddy who's long $NG. 

I don't think JB moves NG. 

There is a trend in models tonight for the N. Pacific ridge to be more -EPO. Let's see how that goes, it is the seasonal trend since Aug/Sept. If models keeping progressing from -PNA to -EPO this weekend, NG may open up on Sunday. 

[stadiumwave]

0z model suite...quit the changes. 

GFS got on board with strat warming event that clearly is the cause for the bridge block late in run as it couples with troposphere:

10mb

50mb

I'd say that was the reason the 18z AI -Euro model had a massive bridge blocking:

 

[bluewave]

The H300 PDO finished November at -2.0 due to how extensive the subsurface warmth is.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_current.pdf

[GaWx]

The dreaded 0Z Euro E US torch: awful!

12/20:

 

12/22:

 

12/25:

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

The dreaded 0Z Euro E US torch: awful!

12/20:

 

12/22:

 

12/25:

AIFS is similiar. Looks like the pattern changes back to cold and possibly storm during Christmas week.

[bncho]

Maybe the models are showing this due to a new -NAO signal for CAD events, but I'm not sure.

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

Maybe the models are showing this due to a new -NAO signal for CAD events, but I'm not sure.

wouldn't be surprising in the slightest if this was partially due to the persistent SPV disruptions and SSW that we've seen over the last three weeks. ensembles are definitely picking up on a wavebreaking -NAO signal with some retrograding Scandi / N ATL high pressure 

[snowman19]

This is comical. First, the hype was that there was not going to be any pattern change at all through the end of this month, MJO phase 8, SSWE, super weak SPV, the cold was here to stay with no breaks and the models are going to be dead wrong in the long range. Then it was, yea ok, very brief, transient change for a few days then right back to the same pattern. Now….“it’s only warm aloft, we don’t live at 10,000 ft”. CAD and wedges are going to keep the east coast in the arctic ice box despite the pattern change that definitely wasn’t going to happen, big snowstorms coming up the coast later this month. As predictable as the rising sun. Like clockwork. You can literally write the script before it even happens. Year after year the same cold and snow hype from the same cast of characters, like Groundhog Day

[MJO812]

Just now, snowman19 said:

This is comical. First, the hype was that there was not going to be any pattern change at all through the end of this month, MJO phase 8, SSWE, super weak SPV, the cold was here to stay with no breaks and the models are going to be dead wrong in the long range. Then it was, yea ok, very brief, transient change for a few days then right back to the same pattern. Now….“it’s only warm aloft, we don’t live at 10,000 ft”. CAD and wedges are going to keep the east coast in the arctic ice box despite the pattern change that definitely wasn’t going to happen, big snowstorms coming up the coast later this month. As predictable as the rising sun. Like clockwork. You can literally write the script before it even happens. Year after year the same cold and snow hype from the same cast of characters, like Groundhog Day

You shouldn't even be talking 

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You shouldn't even be talking 

King clown himself. MJO phase 8 locked in all month!!!! 30 days!!!! Major SSWE!!!!! 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

wouldn't be surprising in the slightest if this was partially due to the persistent SPV disruptions and SSW that we've seen over the last three weeks. ensembles are definitely picking up on a wavebreaking -NAO signal with some retrograding Scandi / N ATL high pressure 

I noticed that over greenland/scandinavia. While that hasn’t yet translated to an eastern trough, I see BN temp anomalies NYC north and less “torchy” conditions down here in the MA. Tells me CAD events may be a possibility, something we haven’t seen in ages. And perhaps the E trough will pop in if/when the-nao persists at least a week.

[Cobalt]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

King clown himself. MJO phase 8 locked in all month!!!! 30 days!!!! Major SSWE!!!!! 

Hi! Was wondering where you went, since it seems like you, qg_omega, and co go mia every time there's a snow or cold threat. 

Speaking of which, hope you enjoy the snow tomorrow. Seems like you and areas to your south near NYC are game for an appreciable December snowfall.

[MJO812]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

King clown himself. MJO phase 8 locked in all month!!!! 30 days!!!! Major SSWE!!!!! 

There is another one coming 

Keep trolling

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

Maybe the models are showing this due to a new -NAO signal for CAD events, but I'm not sure.

Its more that Scandinavian block is more SW on some ensembles now.  Unfortunately the WPO/EPO the last couple of cycles are becoming unfavorable again but thats also out at D14-16 so not highly confident in any of the changes

[snowman19]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

There is another one coming 

Keep trolling

Just keep predicting it like you always do, you’ll get it right eventually! Then when the inevitable one hits, take credit for your great forecast! “I called it!” All you ever do is predict major cold and major snow, MJO phase 8, SSWE’s, big SPV disruptions, huge blocking and how La Niña is going to fall apart, winter after winter. And since 2022-23, you have been failing miserably with the lone exception of last winter’s cold. You were “right” by default. Then you attack me 

[George001]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Just keep predicting it like you always do, you’ll get it right eventually! Then when the inevitable one hits, take credit for your great forecast! “I called it!” All you ever do is predict major cold and major snow, MJO phase 8, SSWE’s, big SPV disruptions, huge blocking and how La Niña is going to fall apart, winter after winter. And since 2022-23, you have been failing miserably with the lone exception of last winter’s cold. You were “right” by default 

All you do is predict warm and you happen to be right more often than not because AGW. There are objective posters here (eg Don). You are not one of them. I have never seen you predict a cold and snowy pattern once in my time on this board. You have 0 ground to stand on and are a massive hypocrite bitching about people who are “biased” towards cold and snow while you are doing the same thing with warmth.

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

All you do is predict warm and you happen to be right more often than not because AGW. There are objective posters here (eg Don). You are not one of them. I have never seen you predict a cold and snowy pattern once in my time on this board. You have 0 ground to stand on and are a massive hypocrite bitching about people who are “biased” towards cold and snow while you are doing the same thing with warmth.

I’ve actually admitted my bias several times, maybe you have reading comprehension problems or memory issues? Others remind me of it all the time too. And nice language by the way in your previous post. Dropping f-bombs will really get your point across. How low class

[George001]

6 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

ok i want snow as much as the next guy but you gotta check yourself dude this is absolutely unhinged. @snowman19i don't agree with your wx outlook all the time but you don't deserve a reply like this...

This isn’t about snow anymore for me. It’s about Snowman19’s continued nastiness and rudeness to everyone who disagrees with him. Bluewave leans warm too, but he’s never calls people names or is rude to those who disagree. He’s a good man, and deserves respect. Snowman19 is genuinely a bad person, there’s a difference. Maybe I did go too far, but we all have our breaking points with people like that.

[vegan_edible]

Just now, George001 said:

This isn’t about snow anymore for me. It’s about Snowman19’s continued nastiness and rudeness to everyone who disagrees with him. Bluewave leans warm too, but he’s never calls people names or is rude to those who disagree. He’s a good man, and deserves respect. Snowman19 is genuinely a bad person, there’s a difference. 

you do realize we're on the internet right. im sure @snowman19is a wonderful human irl and his words on this site should be taken light-heartedly at most. 

and he didn't even come at you and his reply to your post was pretty mellow... you clearly need to reevaluate your choice of words. we're all adults and we're here to speak about weather. not personal beefs. 

 

[snowman19]

16 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

ok i want snow as much as the next guy but you gotta check yourself dude this is absolutely unhinged. @snowman19i don't agree with your wx outlook all the time but you don't deserve a reply like this...

Unhinged isn’t the word. That was psychotic. Completely mental. Truly terrifying. Wishing death and suicide on people over the weather. I seriously hope he gets the psychiatric help he obviously, desperately needs

[vegan_edible]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Unhinged isn’t the word. That was psychotic. Completely mental. Truly terrifying. Wishing death and suicide on people over the weather. I seriously hope he gets the psychiatric help he obviously, desperately needs

for real. its never EVER that serious, sorry that he went off on you

[George001]

On 11/19/2025 at 5:59 PM, snowman19 said:

I wasn’t talking about on here you bozo. Did you even bother to read what I said or you just saw that I dared to say “not extreme cold” and you saw red. Oh wait…..you never see red

Once again I will say… yes, I am an asshole but I am right about you. At least I am trying to be better by only being that way to people who deserve it

[GaWx]

 In the interest of showing objectivity, I expect the 12Z Euro, which is about to be released, to not be as cold as the 0Z that I posted 3 temp anom maps from. But the overall trends toward not as warm, more CAD, and instability of models within just a week seems real to me and tells me not to bet the farm at least yet on a mainly mild 12/18-31 mid-Atlantic south like has been suggested by ens. means. We’ll see.

Edit for 12:55 update on 12Z Euro vs 0Z:

-12/20 map not quite as cold but still BN

-12/22 and 12/25 maps much warmer

—————

I expected this because 0Z was such a cold run and thus appeared to go too far. But regardless, 12/20 is overall still trending colder in model consensus and models remain unstable telling me to not bet too heavily on late month mild domination.

 

[bncho]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This is comical. First, the hype was that there was not going to be any pattern change at all through the end of this month, MJO phase 8, SSWE, super weak SPV, the cold was here to stay with no breaks and the models are going to be dead wrong in the long range. Then it was, yea ok, very brief, transient change for a few days then right back to the same pattern. Now….“it’s only warm aloft, we don’t live at 10,000 ft”. CAD and wedges are going to keep the east coast in the arctic ice box despite the pattern change that definitely wasn’t going to happen, big snowstorms coming up the coast later this month. As predictable as the rising sun. Like clockwork. You can literally write the script before it even happens. Year after year the same cold and snow hype from the same cast of characters, like Groundhog Day

If my post about the -NAO was part of the issue, I'm sorry if you took it the wrong way. I wasn't trying to deny the fact it would warm up for the East Coast later in the month, I was just trying to figure out why models might be trending slightly colder for that period. 

[JACKASS]

Holy fucking meltdown!

Someone needs some serious time off.