2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

 In the interest of showing objectivity, I expect the 12Z Euro, which is about to be released, to not be as cold as the 0Z that I posted 3 temp anom maps from. But the overall trends toward not as warm, more CAD, and instability of models within just a week seems real to me and tells me not to bet the farm at least yet on a mainly mild 12/18-31 mid-Atlantic south like has been suggested by ens. means. We’ll see.

Edit for 12:55 update on 12Z Euro vs 0Z:

-12/20 map not quite as cold but still BN

-12/22 and 12/25 maps much warmer

—————

I expected this because 0Z was such a cold run and thus appeared to go too far. But regardless, 12/20 is overall still trending colder in model consensus and models remain unstable telling me to not bet too heavily on late month mild domination.

 

[bncho]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This is comical. First, the hype was that there was not going to be any pattern change at all through the end of this month, MJO phase 8, SSWE, super weak SPV, the cold was here to stay with no breaks and the models are going to be dead wrong in the long range. Then it was, yea ok, very brief, transient change for a few days then right back to the same pattern. Now….“it’s only warm aloft, we don’t live at 10,000 ft”. CAD and wedges are going to keep the east coast in the arctic ice box despite the pattern change that definitely wasn’t going to happen, big snowstorms coming up the coast later this month. As predictable as the rising sun. Like clockwork. You can literally write the script before it even happens. Year after year the same cold and snow hype from the same cast of characters, like Groundhog Day

If my post about the -NAO was part of the issue, I'm sorry if you took it the wrong way. I wasn't trying to deny the fact it would warm up for the East Coast later in the month, I was just trying to figure out why models might be trending slightly colder for that period. 

[JACKASS]

Holy fucking meltdown!

Someone needs some serious time off.

[raindancewx]

You guys should be excited. Philadelphia is going to get 3-5 inches of snow before the next few systems come in as rain, and then whatever happens in January-March.