2025-2026 ENSO

[EasternLI]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the EPS shows this colder wedging pretty well. might be a bit overdone, but I doubt really torches from NYC north. hell, New England can even see some mixed systems

Check out what the top 2 clusters (left 1 to right 2) from this run end up with by the end of that same period... 

[Cobalt]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Who on here said the word torch? 

You know who

On 12/9/2025 at 8:18 PM, qg_omega said:

Historic torch is gearing up for second half of December, rubber band going to snap back hard

 

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Can’t wait for the inevitable weenie “it’s only warm aloft!!” proclamations. Right out of the JB playbook. Chapter One

True, but its really no different than the other crowd during periods of cold. We will start to see random posts about warmth elsewhere on the planet.

[raindancewx]

CPC now has the 8-14 day period stormy in the Southwest, which is consistent with the storm timing at the 17-21 day lead I posted a while ago. Also, we have the big warm up coming as expected. If you remember, the Canadian showed the US not very cold for December, despite the big cold wave everyone knew was coming early month. So it looks like the model did a pretty good job.

Longer term, the look over NE Asia right about now looks like a big high centered over the Plains and a potent low over the SW US or Northern MX in 17-21 days, roughly in the Dec 29/30 to Jan 2/3 window.

[TheClimateChanger]

JB coming out with the 1985 analog. What a joke... IIRC, it was something like -20F with a -50F windchill at Cleveland. There is zero chance of that happening. Must be trying to bail out a buddy who's long $NG. 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

There is zero chance of that happening. Must be trying to bail out a buddy who's long $NG. 

I don't think JB moves NG. 

There is a trend in models tonight for the N. Pacific ridge to be more -EPO. Let's see how that goes, it is the seasonal trend since Aug/Sept. If models keeping progressing from -PNA to -EPO this weekend, NG may open up on Sunday. 

[stadiumwave]

0z model suite...quit the changes. 

GFS got on board with strat warming event that clearly is the cause for the bridge block late in run as it couples with troposphere:

10mb

50mb

I'd say that was the reason the 18z AI -Euro model had a massive bridge blocking:

 

[bluewave]

The H300 PDO finished November at -2.0 due to how extensive the subsurface warmth is.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_current.pdf

[GaWx]

The dreaded 0Z Euro E US torch: awful!

12/20:

 

12/22:

 

12/25:

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

The dreaded 0Z Euro E US torch: awful!

12/20:

 

12/22:

 

12/25:

AIFS is similiar. Looks like the pattern changes back to cold and possibly storm during Christmas week.

[bncho]

Maybe the models are showing this due to a new -NAO signal for CAD events, but I'm not sure.

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

Maybe the models are showing this due to a new -NAO signal for CAD events, but I'm not sure.

wouldn't be surprising in the slightest if this was partially due to the persistent SPV disruptions and SSW that we've seen over the last three weeks. ensembles are definitely picking up on a wavebreaking -NAO signal with some retrograding Scandi / N ATL high pressure 

[snowman19]

This is comical. First, the hype was that there was not going to be any pattern change at all through the end of this month, MJO phase 8, SSWE, super weak SPV, the cold was here to stay with no breaks and the models are going to be dead wrong in the long range. Then it was, yea ok, very brief, transient change for a few days then right back to the same pattern. Now….“it’s only warm aloft, we don’t live at 10,000 ft”. CAD and wedges are going to keep the east coast in the arctic ice box despite the pattern change that definitely wasn’t going to happen, big snowstorms coming up the coast later this month. As predictable as the rising sun. Like clockwork. You can literally write the script before it even happens. Year after year the same cold and snow hype from the same cast of characters, like Groundhog Day

[MJO812]

Just now, snowman19 said:

This is comical. First, the hype was that there was not going to be any pattern change at all through the end of this month, MJO phase 8, SSWE, super weak SPV, the cold was here to stay with no breaks and the models are going to be dead wrong in the long range. Then it was, yea ok, very brief, transient change for a few days then right back to the same pattern. Now….“it’s only warm aloft, we don’t live at 10,000 ft”. CAD and wedges are going to keep the east coast in the arctic ice box despite the pattern change that definitely wasn’t going to happen, big snowstorms coming up the coast later this month. As predictable as the rising sun. Like clockwork. You can literally write the script before it even happens. Year after year the same cold and snow hype from the same cast of characters, like Groundhog Day

You shouldn't even be talking 

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You shouldn't even be talking 

King clown himself. MJO phase 8 locked in all month!!!! 30 days!!!! Major SSWE!!!!! 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

wouldn't be surprising in the slightest if this was partially due to the persistent SPV disruptions and SSW that we've seen over the last three weeks. ensembles are definitely picking up on a wavebreaking -NAO signal with some retrograding Scandi / N ATL high pressure 

I noticed that over greenland/scandinavia. While that hasn’t yet translated to an eastern trough, I see BN temp anomalies NYC north and less “torchy” conditions down here in the MA. Tells me CAD events may be a possibility, something we haven’t seen in ages. And perhaps the E trough will pop in if/when the-nao persists at least a week.

[Cobalt]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

King clown himself. MJO phase 8 locked in all month!!!! 30 days!!!! Major SSWE!!!!! 

Hi! Was wondering where you went, since it seems like you, qg_omega, and co go mia every time there's a snow or cold threat. 

Speaking of which, hope you enjoy the snow tomorrow. Seems like you and areas to your south near NYC are game for an appreciable December snowfall.

[Benjamn3]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This is comical. First, the hype was that there was not going to be any pattern change at all through the end of this month, MJO phase 8, SSWE, super weak SPV, the cold was here to stay with no breaks and the models are going to be dead wrong in the long range. Then it was, yea ok, very brief, transient change for a few days then right back to the same pattern. Now….“it’s only warm aloft, we don’t live at 10,000 ft”. CAD and wedges are going to keep the east coast in the arctic ice box despite the pattern change that definitely wasn’t going to happen, big snowstorms coming up the coast later this month. As predictable as the rising sun. Like clockwork. You can literally write the script before it even happens. Year after year the same cold and snow hype from the same cast of characters, like Groundhog Day

 

[MJO812]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

King clown himself. MJO phase 8 locked in all month!!!! 30 days!!!! Major SSWE!!!!! 

There is another one coming 

Keep trolling

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

Maybe the models are showing this due to a new -NAO signal for CAD events, but I'm not sure.

Its more that Scandinavian block is more SW on some ensembles now.  Unfortunately the WPO/EPO the last couple of cycles are becoming unfavorable again but thats also out at D14-16 so not highly confident in any of the changes

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

There is another one coming 

Keep trolling

Just keep predicting it like you always do, you’ll get it right eventually! Then when the inevitable one hits, take credit for your great forecast! “I called it!” All you ever do is predict major cold and major snow, MJO phase 8, SSWE’s, big SPV disruptions and how La Niña is going to fall apart, winter after winter. And since 2022-23, you have been failing miserably with the lone exception of last winter’s cold. You were “right” by default