2025-2026 ENSO

[EasternLI]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the EPS shows this colder wedging pretty well. might be a bit overdone, but I doubt really torches from NYC north. hell, New England can even see some mixed systems

Check out what the top 2 clusters (left 1 to right 2) from this run end up with by the end of that same period... 

[Cobalt]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Who on here said the word torch? 

You know who

On 12/9/2025 at 8:18 PM, qg_omega said:

Historic torch is gearing up for second half of December, rubber band going to snap back hard

 

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Can’t wait for the inevitable weenie “it’s only warm aloft!!” proclamations. Right out of the JB playbook. Chapter One

True, but its really no different than the other crowd during periods of cold. We will start to see random posts about warmth elsewhere on the planet.

[raindancewx]

CPC now has the 8-14 day period stormy in the Southwest, which is consistent with the storm timing at the 17-21 day lead I posted a while ago. Also, we have the big warm up coming as expected. If you remember, the Canadian showed the US not very cold for December, despite the big cold wave everyone knew was coming early month. So it looks like the model did a pretty good job.

Longer term, the look over NE Asia right about now looks like a big high centered over the Plains and a potent low over the SW US or Northern MX in 17-21 days, roughly in the Dec 29/30 to Jan 2/3 window.

[TheClimateChanger]

JB coming out with the 1985 analog. What a joke... IIRC, it was something like -20F with a -50F windchill at Cleveland. There is zero chance of that happening. Must be trying to bail out a buddy who's long $NG. 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

There is zero chance of that happening. Must be trying to bail out a buddy who's long $NG. 

I don't think JB moves NG. 

There is a trend in models tonight for the N. Pacific ridge to be more -EPO. Let's see how that goes, it is the seasonal trend since Aug/Sept. If models keeping progressing from -PNA to -EPO this weekend, NG may open up on Sunday. 

[stadiumwave]

0z model suite...quit the changes. 

GFS got on board with strat warming event that clearly is the cause for the bridge block late in run as it couples with troposphere:

10mb

50mb

I'd say that was the reason the 18z AI -Euro model had a massive bridge blocking:

 

[bluewave]

The H300 PDO finished November at -2.0 due to how extensive the subsurface warmth is.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_current.pdf

[GaWx]

The dreaded 0Z Euro E US torch: awful!

12/20:

 

12/22:

 

12/25:

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

The dreaded 0Z Euro E US torch: awful!

12/20:

 

12/22:

 

12/25:

AIFS is similiar. Looks like the pattern changes back to cold and possibly storm during Christmas week.