2025-2026 ENSO

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, Spartman said:

Jonathan Wall apparently bringing up 2001-2002 regarding the Phase 8 MJO

https://x.com/_jwall/status/1997672498993762417

Maybe the case, I haven't checked, but November and the beginning of December that year was a polar opposite temp-wise in the east to this year. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

 

There will be a warmup I think but hopefully short-lived.

It should be if there is a warmup. Lag in the MJO would put us near the holidays.

[mitchnick]

On 12/6/2025 at 9:22 AM, bluewave said:

Lake Superior is still the 2nd warmest on record since 1995 for December 5th.

https://apps.glerl.noaa.gov/coastwatch/webdata/statistic/pdf/all_year_glsea_avg_s.pdf

 

 

 

 

Odd. Oisst shows it predominantly below normal as of 12/6. Something isn't right, not that it matters. 

[BlizzardWx]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

The support for a warm up late month is this - implies a big storm in the Southwest gets stuck around Dec 21-25 in a Rex Block and floods the East with warmer air in that period. Probably doesn't last long. Then you revert back to canonical -WPO for a while. But, later on, six 6-10 days out, the same maps over NE Asia imply storms get cut off over the NM/AX/MX/TX borderlands either via weak subtropical impulses or lost waves from the Northern jet. If some of those eject east when it is cold, that's a better signal for the East for storms and cold, but that's very late in December, probably Dec 30 into week one of January. The deep blues over southern Kamchatka were last there late Oct to week one of Nov, when we had the three week stormier period in the Southwest from Nov 15-Dec 5 or so as the timing pretty much always works at a 17-21 day lead. Your call or not whether you believe it.

Do you see any decent winter weather opportunities for the southern plains moving forward? 

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, Spartman said:

Jonathan Wall apparently bringing up 2001-2002 regarding the Phase 8 MJO

https://x.com/_jwall/status/1997672498993762417

I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he’s not counting weak phase 8 (inside circle). But even so, these had outside the circle phase 8 in Dec since 2001:

2017: 

 

2009:

2007:

2002:

@mitchnick

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, BlizzardWx said:

I see you used the +/- 5 latitude VP. I know some sites use a broader area like +/- 15 degrees and with anomalies. Do you find this selection to be the most relevant? I'm still wading my way into understanding the MJO better.  

I attached some GEFS plots for the current precip and VP anomalies. I think a good chunk of what might be more 7-8 forcing is below 5 S with the record warm temperatures off of Australia. But I definitely see the 4-6 forcing within the +/- 5 latitude band too. 

These charts below do a good job showing the current burst of stronger forcing in the MJO 4-6 areas. I suspect it’s one of the reasons we aren’t getting the canonical MJO 8 even with the RMMS in that space. This is why I like to look at the total forcing when they are out of alignment with the RMMS.

Notice that the Pacific Jet hasn’t relaxed and we have a dominant northern stream. So even though we are experiencing a colder pattern since late November, the warmer storm track of the last 7 years hasn’t varied. This was the case during some of the colder intervals last winter also.

Models are beginning to come into better agreement for the relaxation of the cold as the falling AAM and MJO 4-6 forcing supports a broad ridge across the U.S. mid to late month. This is a seasonal shift that we have seen frequently approaching mid to late December over the last decade. We had a big jet extension last December at this time also when the temperatures moderated.
 

 

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

These charts below do a good job showing the current burst of stronger forcing in the MJO 4-6 areas. I suspect it’s one of the reasons we aren’t getting the canonical MJO 8 even with the RMMS in that space. This is why I like to look at the total forcing when they are out of alignment with the RMMS.

Notice that the Pacific Jet hasn’t relaxed and we have a dominant northern stream. So even though we are experiencing a colder pattern since late November, the warmer storm track of the last 7 years hasn’t varied. This was the case during some of the colder intervals last winter also.

Models are beginning to come into better agreement for the relaxation of the cold as the falling AAM and MJO 4-6 forcing supports a broad ridge across the U.S. mid to late month. This is a seasonal shift that we have seen frequently approaching mid to late December over the last decade. We had a big jet extension last December at this time also when the temperatures moderated.
 

 

As long as you have a standing wave there (phase 4-6), you aren’t going to see a classic canonical phase 8 response 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Notice that the Pacific Jet hasn’t relaxed and we have a dominant northern stream. So even though we are experiencing a colder pattern since late November, the warmer storm track of the last 7 years hasn’t varied. This was the case during some of the colder intervals last winter also.

The only time we really had a colder storm track was in 2017-18 and January 2022. Other than that, the classic storm track with a sharp cutoff south and east has been a recurrent theme since 2016-17 (that was even the case in many of the 2021 storms). That appears to continue this year. This doesn't bode well for snow lovers in coastal areas, like Atlantic City.

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As long as you have a standing wave there (phase 4-6), you aren’t going to see a classic canonical phase 8 response 

There is a lag in the MJO response . Lets see where we are at in a week. 

[MJO812]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

These charts below do a good job showing the current burst of stronger forcing in the MJO 4-6 areas. I suspect it’s one of the reasons we aren’t getting the canonical MJO 8 even with the RMMS in that space. This is why I like to look at the total forcing when they are out of alignment with the RMMS.

Notice that the Pacific Jet hasn’t relaxed and we have a dominant northern stream. So even though we are experiencing a colder pattern since late November, the warmer storm track of the last 7 years hasn’t varied. This was the case during some of the colder intervals last winter also.

Models are beginning to come into better agreement for the relaxation of the cold as the falling AAM and MJO 4-6 forcing supports a broad ridge across the U.S. mid to late month. This is a seasonal shift that we have seen frequently approaching mid to late December over the last decade. We had a big jet extension last December at this time also when the temperatures moderated.
 

 

The models have been correcting colder so far this month after showing warmth in the long range. I believe it will continue as along as the WPO stays negative. 

Look at the gefs correcting in the bottom imaging.  This month will end up being a cold month. Now hopefully snow will eventually come with it for areas near the coast. 

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The models have been correcting colder so far this month after showing warmth in the long range. I believe it will continue as along as the WPO stays negative. 

Look at the gefs correcting. 

Below is why a relaxation is possible during December 20-31. The WPO is forecast to become less negative while a PNA-, EPO+,AO+, NAO+ regime is largely in place. The WPO would no longer be sufficiently negative to offset the impact of unfavorable teleconnections. Fortunately, that's still far out where skill is low, so it's a plausible but not yet certain outcome.

[EasternLI]

I buy some sort of Pacific shake up. Not entirely sure to what though. The catalyst to force that looks to be an -EAMT set to take place in the day 10-15 period. This should do a few things. Retract the Pacific jet causing some wave breaks. This should force alterations to the Pacific. Perhaps this is the signal for this current WPO episode to wane. With a retrograding Pacific, not sure. But also this would be the driver of the fall in AAM that's been identified in the next 2 weeks. What I believe that means is an attenuation of this current MJO signal. Probably signaling the end of this current MJO event as well. Until the next one takes shape into January is my guess. 

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The models have been correcting colder so far this month after showing warmth in the long range. I believe it will continue as along as the WPO stays negative. 

Look at the gefs correcting in the bottom imaging.  This month will end up being a cold month. Now hopefully snow will eventually come with it for areas near the coast. 

This has been due to the inability of the models to resolve the split forcing pattern which has been in place this month so far. So the first 16 days of the month will verify significantly colder than the long range forecasts were indicating back in late November.

La Nina’s often had colder patterns in December so this isn’t that much of a surprise. The interference pattern has created a cold MJO 6 type and not the canonical MJO 8 pattern and storm track. This is due to the forcing near the MJO 4-6 regions with the standing wave.

So now that the models have a consolidation of forcing there as the forcing weakens over the Western Hemisphere, they are showing the seasonal moderation in temperatures we often see beginning in mid-December.

The last few days have been the first time in a while that they are actually raising heights more than in earlier runs. So the ridge coming east faster is a function of the big Jet extension and MJO 4-6 forcing. 

Remember last early December how the models underestimated the mid to late December Jet extension and lower Pacific heights. 

New run faster Pacific Jet lowering heights more over Western North America and raising heights in the East

Old run weaker Pacific Jet and stronger ridge out West

[EastonSN+]

Nice early snowfall for Norther North Carolina (for their standards of course).

I cant recall an earlier snowfall down.

 

[mitchnick]

58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This has been due to the inability of the models to resolve the split forcing pattern which has been in place this month so far. So the first 16 days of the month will verify significantly colder than the long range forecasts were indicating back in late November.

La Nina’s often had colder patterns in December so this isn’t that much of a surprise. The interference pattern has created a cold MJO 6 type and not the canonical MJO 8 pattern and storm track. This is due to the forcing near the MJO 4-6 regions with the standing wave.

So now that the models have a consolidation of forcing there as the forcing weakens over the Western Hemisphere, they are showing the seasonal moderation in temperatures we often see beginning in mid-December.

The last few days have been the first time in a while that they are actually raising heights more than in earlier runs. So the ridge coming east faster is a function of the big Jet extension and MJO 4-6 forcing. 

Remember last early December how the models underestimated the mid to late December Jet extension and lower Pacific heights. 

New run faster Pacific Jet lowering heights more over Western North America and raising heights in the East

Old run weaker Pacific Jet and stronger ridge out West

Don't know if it's lasts, but Cfs2 is liking the trough in SE/Southern Canada for January and February with BN temps in the NE both months and average precip in January and AN in February. 

500mb

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025120800&fh=1

Temps

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025120800&fh=1

Precip

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=apcpna_month&runtime=2025120800&fh=1

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Don't know if it's lasts, but Cfs2 is liking the trough in SE Canada for January and February with BN temps in the NE both months and average precip in January and AN in February. 

500mb

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025120800&fh=1

Temps

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025120800&fh=1

Precip

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=apcpna_month&runtime=2025120800&fh=1

My early guess for January is that it will be warmer on average across the entire CONUS than last January was which finished as the 33rd coldest. All our multi year La Nina’s last 30 years have had one January which was on the colder side like last January while the others have been milder. But don’t have feel yet what the general 500mb pattern will be and where the warm and cold anomalies will set up or how much warmer specifically this January will be.

[LakePaste25]

51 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Nice early snowfall for Norther North Carolina (for their standards of course).

I cant recall an earlier snowfall down.

 

I don’t have the data for N NC, but RIC had a major snowfall in December 2018. 

 

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

The models have been correcting colder so far this month after showing warmth in the long range. I believe it will continue as along as the WPO stays negative. 

Look at the gefs correcting in the bottom imaging.  This month will end up being a cold month. Now hopefully snow will eventually come with it for areas near the coast. 

Temp wise they have been wrong for weeks, the long range models and the typical warm crew here that model hug.  They are bound to be correct eventually, then the same crew will say seeeee while totally ignoring their months+ long of busted temps.

[snowman19]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My early guess for January is that it will be warmer on average across the entire CONUS than last January was which finished as the 33rd coldest. All our multi year La Nina’s last 30 years have had one January which was on the colder side like last January while the others have been milder. But don’t have feel yet what the general 500mb pattern will be and where the warm and cold anomalies will set up or how much warmer specifically this January will be.

Like @donsutherland1 always says, not even worth looking at the CFS until you are into the final few days of the month, when it actually gets a semblance of having a clue about the following month. That said, in this climate, actually getting 4 months (Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb) in a row to all be below normal for temps, would be an extremely tall order….

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Temp wise they have been wrong for weeks, the long range models and the typical warm crew here that model hug

Kind of like how the typical snow crew here has been wrong about KU’s/major snowstorms hitting the east coast, I-95 corridor every winter since the 2022-23 winter. Going on 4 in a row now…..

[stadiumwave]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

These charts below do a good job showing the current burst of stronger forcing in the MJO 4-6 areas. I suspect it’s one of the reasons we aren’t getting the canonical MJO 8 even with the RMMS in that space. This is why I like to look at the total forcing when they are out of alignment with the RMMS.

Notice that the Pacific Jet hasn’t relaxed and we have a dominant northern stream. So even though we are experiencing a colder pattern since late November, the warmer storm track of the last 7 years hasn’t varied. This was the case during some of the colder intervals last winter also.

Models are beginning to come into better agreement for the relaxation of the cold as the falling AAM and MJO 4-6 forcing supports a broad ridge across the U.S. mid to late month. This is a seasonal shift that we have seen frequently approaching mid to late December over the last decade. We had a big jet extension last December at this time also when the temperatures moderated.
 

 

Some of the AI models are radically different on Day 10. It will be interesting to see which is modeled better.

[stadiumwave]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

My early guess for January is that it will be warmer on average across the entire CONUS than last January was which finished as the 33rd coldest. All our multi year La Nina’s last 30 years have had one January which was on the colder side like last January while the others have been milder. But don’t have feel yet what the general 500mb pattern will be and where the warm and cold anomalies will set up or how much warmer specifically this January will be.

 

Go look at all -QBO La Nina's that had any early strat warming (not full blown SSW). January is the coldest month with thise analogs unlike the +QBO LA Nina's that basically all end winter early JAN. No way to know if it shakes out that way but it is interesting nonetheless.