2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

I used December 2000 as an analog for the warming in that it would narrowly miss a reversal, but also mentioned December 1981 as an example if it were to actually reverse. I said that the MJO would staddle the border of MJO phase 8 and perhaps make it into phase 8 at a reduced amplitude, which would allow other factors to potentially modulate the pattern. And I'm not sure how in the hell you are grading the nuances of the 500mb composite for a month that has yet to begin.

You are absolutely desperate for snow in Central Park, I get it.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I used December 2000 as an analog for the warming in that it would narrowly miss a reversal, but also mentioned December 1981 as an example if it were to actually reverse. I said that the MJO would staddle the border of MJO phase 8 and perhaps make it into phase 8 at a reduced amplitude, which would allow other factors to potentially modulate the pattern. And I'm not sure how in the hell you are grading the nuances of the 500mb composite for a month that has yet to begin.

You are absolutely desperate for snow in Central Park, I get it.

Keep thinking that. I will bump this when I get snow next month. Carry on with snowman19. 

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I stopped reading your response right there. Either you didn't actually read my outlook, or you're illiterate to some extent.

I can tell you what will definitely be wrong, the absolutely asinine wishcast that there is going to be a major SSWE, total wind reversal and an SPV split by Christmas. You know, the one from the moron in PA that he follows and pirates stratospheric graphics from. That crap is going down in flames….And how he can say you were wrong with the cold for December and the trough positioning in your winter forecast for December is wrong on November 29th is simply mind-blowing. I mean unless he’s psychic and clairvoyant 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Keep thinking that. I will bump this when I get snow next month. Carry on with snowman19. 

Keep thinking what? It's not subjective...I told you what my forecast was...that is objective fact.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

I can tell you what will definitely be wrong, the absolutely asinine wishcast that there is going to be a major SSWE, total wind reversal and an SPV split that. You know, the one from the moron in PA that he follows and pirates stratospheric graphics from. That crap is going down in flames….And how he can say you were wrong with the cold for December and the trough positioning in your winter forecast for December is wrong on November 29th is simply mind-blowing. I mean unless he’s psychic and clairvoyant 

Maybe I will be wrong on some aspects, which is fine...I'll learn from it....but all I ask from those who comment on my work is to accurately reference what the forecast was.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I can tell you what will definitely be wrong, the absolutely asinine wishcast that there is going to be a major SSWE, total wind reversal and an SPV split by Christmas. You know, the one from the moron in PA that he follows and pirates stratospheric graphics from. That crap is going down in flames….And how he can say you were wrong with the cold for December and the trough positioning in your winter forecast for December is wrong on November 29th is simply mind-blowing. I mean unless he’s psychic and clairvoyant 

You have been wrong also. Just stop posting please. 

Why are people still all gloom and doom when the guidance shows a cold and active December ? I dont get this place. 

[LakePaste25]

25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I can tell you what will definitely be wrong, the absolutely asinine wishcast that there is going to be a major SSWE, total wind reversal and an SPV split by Christmas. You know, the one from the moron in PA that he follows and pirates stratospheric graphics from. That crap is going down in flames….And how he can say you were wrong with the cold for December and the trough positioning in your winter forecast for December is wrong on November 29th is simply mind-blowing. I mean unless he’s psychic and clairvoyant 

Are you referring to Margavage? His primary audience are people with an IQ < 70, and those who are completely unaware of how meteorology works. Wouldn’t worry too much about those people. A dime a dozen. Grifters.

Agreed with @brooklynwx99’s take on the -WPO, but I could see a trough that is not as deep as what is shown if the +EPO verifies stronger. I also don’t see a full blown CONUS torch happening. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You have been wrong also. Just stop posting please. 

Why are people still all gloom and doom when the guidance shows a cold and active December ? I dont get this place. 

I'm not doom and gloom...I went 19-29" for you on the season. I'm just not as optimistic about December as the consensus for your area.

[Cobalt]

4 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

@brooklynwx99’s take on the -WPO, but I could see a trough that is not as deep as what is shown if the +EPO verifies stronger. I also don’t see a full blown CONUS torch happening. 

Hard to tell with the limited PivotalWX panels, but it appears as if the EPS backed off a bit from the  greater +EPO it showed at 0z for the D7+ range.

[LakePaste25]

4 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Hard to tell with the limited PivotalWX panels, but it appears as if the EPS backed off a bit from the  greater +EPO it showed at 0z for the D7+ range.

It did. The euro shows a more alternating waveguide (with EPS support). Fast pac jet with some systems bombing into AK while another amps up the ridge behind it. I can’t show the animation due to file size limits. 

 

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@donsutherland1 Out of curiosity, do you have any temp/precip composites for +EPO, +PNA, -AO, -NAO Decembers?

I'm in briefly. I checked. Here are the December composites (1980-2024) for EPO+/PNA+/AO-/NAO-

500 mb Height Anomalies:

Temperature Anomalies:

Precipitation Rate:

n=121 dates

I suspect that there's a lot of variability, though.

[George001]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

You have been wrong also. Just stop posting please. 

Why are people still all gloom and doom when the guidance shows a cold and active December ? I dont get this place. 

Yeah the latest guidance has a weaker than average polar vortex into mid Jan.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah the latest guidance has a weaker than average polar vortex into mid Jan.

That's the type of polar vortex you want for colder and snowy weather. A stronger than average polar vortex tends to favor torch conditions.

[stadiumwave]

Todays Weeklies have zero warmth in sight throughout the forecast period. 

[MJO812]

Just now, stadiumwave said:

Todays Weeklies have zero warmth in sight throughout the forecast period. 

Its cold through Mid January

[LakePaste25]

28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its cold through Mid January

I think you are looking good for at least a light-moderate event in the city within the next 2 weeks.

[EasternLI]

I feel like it's worth a casual mention that the EPS has been seeing some new Siberian warming cropping up at the end of recent runs. Today's 12z has continued with that thought. GEFS however has not been showing much interest in this idea.

[40/70 Benchmark]

@Stormchaserchuck1I am just north of that 60, where the arrow is pointing.....60% shot at 3"+ according to the EPS.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

That's the type of polar vortex you want for colder and snowy weather. A stronger than average polar vortex tends to favor torch conditions.

Not necessarily....it depends where it's located because a strong vortex located in the vicinity of James Bay is the coldest pattern there is.

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@Stormchaserchuck1I am just north of that 60, where the arrow is pointing.....60% shot at 3"+ according to the EPS.

 

Hey, I'm nearly right smack in the middle of the lighter square in south central PA/MD border to the SW of #46. I'll take it.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@Stormchaserchuck1I am just north of that 60, where the arrow is pointing.....60% shot at 3"+ according to the EPS.

That model is too cold.. it has me >30% of having 3"+.. it's going to be rain here. There is a storm around 12-6 though, and maybe another later on. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This isn't a real strong Stratosphere warming so far

[BlizzardWx]

37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not necessarily....it depends where it's located because a strong vortex located in the vicinity of James Bay is the coldest pattern there is.

And the guidance seems to want to put the restrengthening vortex over Canada for much of the next few weeks so we keep the cold close even with it strengthening. People need to realize how some of our best cold can happen this way. 

[BlizzardWx]

Pretty strong momentum build up in the tropics ongoing with the MJO wave. I saw Webb saying that he thinks this will help keep the -PNA at bay for a while longer. 

[BlizzardWx]

SST changes are pushing the warm pool east. This may help to favor MJO waves pushing into our more favorable phases through the winter, at least to some degree. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

That model is too cold.. it has me >30% of having 3"+.. it's going to be rain here. There is a storm around 12-6 though, and maybe another later on. 

I buy it for MBY.

[Krs4Lfe]

The good news is that most models seem to want to keep a trough over the east for most of December, and that warmup in mid-December looks a bit less likely now than it was just a week ago. However, and I believe this is a big caveat, the trough over Alaska continues to show up. I don’t think that’s a good thing because that means at least some mild pacific air will infiltrate CONUS. I’m not sure what the eastern extent of that mild air penetration will be, but if there was a ridge over Alaska instead of a trough, I think we would be in better shape. That being said, it’s good to see winter storms to our west and our north. This fall was very inactive outside of one Great Lakes snowstorm on Veterans Day, and it’s good to see that has changed. I’ll always take my chances with a colder and stormier pattern. At some point, something usually breaks and we get something down here…. Eventually 

[stadiumwave]

Paul Roundy's tool updated today. Wowzers!! Winter pattern through the end of JAN. We'll see. 

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjoertap.html

Roundy on X today said he gives a 60% chance of the east U.S. getting cold in Feb as well. 

[GaWx]

 Although only barely, it’s now confirmed that we on 11/28/2025 just had the earliest major SSW (reversal) since 11/27/1968 with the zonal wind a whopping 30 m/s BN despite it only barely reversing:

 Kudos to the Euro Weeklies mean of 100 members predicting the weakest point of the SPV to the day a month before it occurred:

 

 This reminds me of the models being initially oblivious to the upcoming -NAO/-AO that appeared after the 2/16/2023 major SSW:

EPS 11/25 12Z run: all +NAO

 

EPS 11/30 0Z run: almost all -NAO including as early as Dec 4th, when 11/25 run had +NAO

 

Similar comparisons for AO:

EPS 11/25 12Z run:

EPS 11/30 0Z run: like night and day

[EasternLI]

5 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

Paul Roundy's tool updated today. Wowzers!! Winter pattern through the end of JAN. We'll see. 

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjoertap.html

Roundy on X today said he gives a 60% chance of the east U.S. getting cold in Feb as well. 

 

What delightful thoughts these are to be pondering as I sip on some coffee early this morning. Yeah, let's get the MJO to shove that warm pool out to the dateline...