2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

I used December 2000 as an analog for the warming in that it would narrowly miss a reversal, but also mentioned December 1981 as an example if it were to actually reverse. I said that the MJO would staddle the border of MJO phase 8 and perhaps make it into phase 8 at a reduced amplitude, which would allow other factors to potentially modulate the pattern. And I'm not sure how in the hell you are grading the nuances of the 500mb composite for a month that has yet to begin.

You are absolutely desperate for snow in Central Park, I get it.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I used December 2000 as an analog for the warming in that it would narrowly miss a reversal, but also mentioned December 1981 as an example if it were to actually reverse. I said that the MJO would staddle the border of MJO phase 8 and perhaps make it into phase 8 at a reduced amplitude, which would allow other factors to potentially modulate the pattern. And I'm not sure how in the hell you are grading the nuances of the 500mb composite for a month that has yet to begin.

You are absolutely desperate for snow in Central Park, I get it.

Keep thinking that. I will bump this when I get snow next month. Carry on with snowman19. 

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I stopped reading your response right there. Either you didn't actually read my outlook, or you're illiterate to some extent.

I can tell you what will definitely be wrong, the absolutely asinine wishcast that there is going to be a major SSWE, total wind reversal and an SPV split by Christmas. You know, the one from the moron in PA that he follows and pirates stratospheric graphics from. That crap is going down in flames….And how he can say you were wrong with the cold for December and the trough positioning in your winter forecast for December is wrong on November 29th is simply mind-blowing. I mean unless he’s psychic and clairvoyant 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Keep thinking that. I will bump this when I get snow next month. Carry on with snowman19. 

Keep thinking what? It's not subjective...I told you what my forecast was...that is objective fact.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

I can tell you what will definitely be wrong, the absolutely asinine wishcast that there is going to be a major SSWE, total wind reversal and an SPV split that. You know, the one from the moron in PA that he follows and pirates stratospheric graphics from. That crap is going down in flames….And how he can say you were wrong with the cold for December and the trough positioning in your winter forecast for December is wrong on November 29th is simply mind-blowing. I mean unless he’s psychic and clairvoyant 

Maybe I will be wrong on some aspects, which is fine...I'll learn from it....but all I ask from those who comment on my work is to accurately reference what the forecast was.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I can tell you what will definitely be wrong, the absolutely asinine wishcast that there is going to be a major SSWE, total wind reversal and an SPV split by Christmas. You know, the one from the moron in PA that he follows and pirates stratospheric graphics from. That crap is going down in flames….And how he can say you were wrong with the cold for December and the trough positioning in your winter forecast for December is wrong on November 29th is simply mind-blowing. I mean unless he’s psychic and clairvoyant 

You have been wrong also. Just stop posting please. 

Why are people still all gloom and doom when the guidance shows a cold and active December ? I dont get this place. 

[LakePaste25]

25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I can tell you what will definitely be wrong, the absolutely asinine wishcast that there is going to be a major SSWE, total wind reversal and an SPV split by Christmas. You know, the one from the moron in PA that he follows and pirates stratospheric graphics from. That crap is going down in flames….And how he can say you were wrong with the cold for December and the trough positioning in your winter forecast for December is wrong on November 29th is simply mind-blowing. I mean unless he’s psychic and clairvoyant 

Are you referring to Margavage? His primary audience are people with an IQ < 70, and those who are completely unaware of how meteorology works. Wouldn’t worry too much about those people. A dime a dozen. Grifters.

Agreed with @brooklynwx99’s take on the -WPO, but I could see a trough that is not as deep as what is shown if the +EPO verifies stronger. I also don’t see a full blown CONUS torch happening. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You have been wrong also. Just stop posting please. 

Why are people still all gloom and doom when the guidance shows a cold and active December ? I dont get this place. 

I'm not doom and gloom...I went 19-29" for you on the season. I'm just not as optimistic about December as the consensus for your area.