2025-2026 ENSO

[Terpeast]

It looks like GEFS is trying to loop back into 7/8 after its u-turn into 6. Hovmollers shows this as well.

[MJO812]

28 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

It looks like GEFS is trying to loop back into 7/8 after its u-turn into 6. Hovmollers shows this as well.

The EPS couldn't be more clear about phase 8. Expect the coldest part of December in the 2nd half.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Do we know exactly what is causing the warmer WPAC ocean temps (as opposed to any other region like CPAC or EPAC)?

I'm not sure exactly what is causing the warmer WPAC ocean temps. All I know is that something must have happened in between the 2009-10 strong el nino and the 2015-16 super el nino.

[anthonymm]

7 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I'm not sure exactly what is causing the warmer WPAC ocean temps. All I know is that something must have happened in between the 2009-10 strong el nino and the 2015-16 super el nino.

2009-2010 strong la nina *

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

2009-2010 strong la nina *

2009-10 was a strong El Niño. 2010-11 was a strong La Niña.

[EastonSN+]

18 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I'm not sure exactly what is causing the warmer WPAC ocean temps. All I know is that something must have happened in between the 2009-10 strong el nino and the 2015-16 super el nino.

I don't think we can determine which factor will eventually cool the WPAC until we can pinpoint what is causing it (as opposed to other areas).

[michsnowfreak]

I know things are looking decent when we are seeing embedded tweets in French.

[LakePaste25]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I don't think we can determine which factor will eventually cool the WPAC until we can pinpoint what is causing it (as opposed to other areas).

It is due to climate change. The trade winds unevenly distribute the warmer water to the western pacific. This phenomenon only temporarily bounces back during El Niño years, and doesn’t even fully do this anymore. It’s here to stay. 

[GaWx]

 With the unfavorable changes in the MJO and AO/NAO, today’s 0Z GEFS is not surprisingly significantly warmer than yesterday’s run for the 2nd week in Dec. However, today’s 0Z EPS, which maintained its very long phase 8, is much colder than yesterday as well as the GEFS

Yesterday’s 0Z EPS for 12/5-11 2m temps:

 

 Today’s 0Z EPS for 12/5-11: it’s pretty rare for a 7 day period of the EPS to have that much of a change within just 24 hours: