2025-2026 ENSO

[stadiumwave]

 

Mean never gets to normal at all now throughout the forecast period. 

[michsnowfreak]

Weeklies below avg every week here. SE ridge definitely appears to have been overdone.

[kazimirkai]

6 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Mean never gets to normal at all now throughout the forecast period. 

lotta spread though 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Weeklies below avg every week here. SE ridge definitely appears to have been overdone.

Its below average through the 1st week of January  even here also.

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[MJO812]

[Terpeast]

13 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

lotta spread though 

True, but more and more members falling below the mean and even reversing. Still very far out and can/will change a ton, though. 

[leo2000]

23 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

lotta spread though 

Confirms what I have been thinking (so far). We shall see though. 

[GaWx]

Regarding today’s Euro Weeklies, it’s the most bullish (i.e., colder changes vs prior run) overall in a long time in the NE and SE. I’m not saying they’re cold in the SE,  but they are colder than they were/not as mild or not mild overall. I don’t have time to post details right now, but y’all check it out! Or someone else please post the maps.

Edit: Every one of the 5 weeks is colder and/or less mild in both the NE and SE US vs yesterday’s run including one dramatically colder week. That hasn’t happened in quite awhile.

[stadiumwave]

1 hour ago, kazimirkai said:

lotta spread though 

 

Of course, there is always a large spread in LR. I said the mean. The mean had been going above normal for several days...it is not now. That is why I shared it.

There are a lot of members much, much weaker, even implying a possibility of maybe future warming.