2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

He’s probably right regarding social media. But it has been discussed fairly widely here. 

Depends whom you follow. DT has been all over it.

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Depends whom you follow. DT has been all over it.

Yes. That’s true.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. That’s true.

I do agree that the majority of it is a cesspool, though. 

[FPizz]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Depends whom you follow. DT has been all over it.

True, but I also have seen the exact opposite posted from those social media posters who preach warmth only to have had it extremely muted as we moved closer in time.  Both sides play the same game and never admit to it.   Don and others here like to point out and scold the "cold/snow" posters, but there is an equal amount of warm biased posters as well that have large followings.  This past summer, we had 1 really hot spell with 100s that lasted 3 days, but tons of times i saw day 10 maps with more 100s posted and dumb write ups on them only for those days turn out to be 91 or 92. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, FPizz said:

True, but I also have seen the exact opposite posted from those social media posters who preach warmth only to have had it extremely muted as we moved closer in time.  Both sides play the same game and never admit to it.   Don and others here like to point out and scold the "cold/snow" posters, but there is an equal amount of warm biased posters as well that have large followings.  This past summer, we had 1 really hot spell with 100s that lasted 3 days, but tons of times i saw day 10 maps with more 100s posted and dumb write ups on them only for those days turn out to be 91 or 92. 

Granted there are more cold mongers, but we all know the select few who only post concerning indicators in favor of warmth (not Don). To each their own, but I try to be limit the bias and keep it real.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Bias is easy to discern among those who actually venture to issue a forecast, but it's also there amongst the Sunday AM QBs...just more subtle. The tell tale sign is the presentation of one-sided data. I think a quality that is inherent of all good posters is a willingness to present data that is representative of the range of possible outcomes. ...ie the folks that relegate themselves to posting about the MC and -IOD are just as culpable as those in the SSW/phase 8 circle-jerk. We all know the ones on each side....you know what the data offered will favor before reading it.

[MJO812]

11 hours ago, anthonymm said:

Last Feb there was a storm that looked like a KU for the I95 5 days out, then it got suppressed to coastal virginia/NC lol. You're dead on with the "cutter or suppressed" track stuff, even though people here give you shit for it. It never works for philly to nyc anymore.

So is winter over ?

[FPizz]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Granted there are more cold mongers, but we all know the select few who only post concerning indicators in favor of warmth (not Don). To each their own, but I try to be limit the bias and keep it real.

I'm not sure about that.  It is all about what you click on and what you respond to for the algo they give to you.  The people in this thread that post the nutty cold mongers respond to them on X, so they get fed more of those people.  If for a few days I click on the warm mongers posts and read them through, I get fed those.  I for the most part stopped following individual posters and just go with the NWS, etc., real sources.  

[GaWx]

 The 6 coldest La Niña to neutral ENSO Decembers in the E US as a whole since 1974 have been 1983, 1985, 1989, 2000, 2005, and 2010:

 

 Here are the respective Dec MJOs:

1983: mainly inside COD or just outside/no strong

1985: almost all inside COD

 

1989: most of 8/1 just outside COD or inside it/no strong

 

2000:almost all just outside or inside COD

 

2005: all inside COD

 

2010: all just outside or in COD

 

 What do these 6 have in common regarding the MJO? No strong and most days just outside to inside COD. 
 
 Below are the extended progs that have the Dec 1-21 MJO: look how strong they are, especially GEFS but even the Euro is solid compared to the six cold Decembers posted. My concern is that the MJO amplitude will be too strong, based on history, to allow for a widespread intense cold dominated E US in Dec. Thus, I’m hoping the progs remain going into 8, but weaken. My hypothesis as to why strong MJO has had a tendency (though not always, of course) to not be as cold as weaker MJO is because the higher amp may tend to bring up too much warmth from the tropics, where the MJO is measured:

 
 

Any opinions?

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I'm not sure about that.  It is all about what you click on and what you respond to for the algo they give to you.  The people in this thread that post the nutty cold mongers respond to them on X, so they get fed more of those people.  If for a few days I click on the warm mongers posts and read them through, I get fed those.  I for the most part stopped following individual posters and just go with the NWS, etc., real sources.  

While this is true, I don't think that is the reason in this case....there is a seasonal element. No question cold and snow gets more hype in the winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 6 coldest La Niña to neutral ENSO Decembers in the E US as a whole since 1974 have been 1983, 1985, 1989, 2000, 2005, and 2010:

 

 Here are the respective Dec MJOs:

1983: mainly inside COD or just outside/no strong

1985: almost all inside COD

 

1989: most of 8/1 just outside COD or inside it/no strong

 

2000:almost all just outside or inside COD

 

2005: all inside COD

 

2010: all just outside or in COD

 

 What do these 6 have in common regarding the MJO? No strong and most days just outside to inside COD. 
 
 Below are the extended progs that have the Dec 1-21 MJO: look how strong they are, especially GEFS but even the Euro is solid compared to the six cold Decembers posted. My concern is that the MJO amplitude will be too strong, based on history, to allow for a widespread intense cold dominated E US in Dec. Thus, I’m hoping the progs remain going into 8, but weaken. My hypothesis as to why strong MJO has had a tendency (though not always, of course) to not be as cold as weaker MJO is because the higher amp may tend to bring up too much warmth from the tropics, where the MJO is measured:

 
 

Any opinions?

This probably ties into the rule concerning the higher amplitude MJO waves in October preceding colder winters that @bluewavehas referenced, though I know that is a more recent phenomenon. I do wonder if those seasons were higher amplitude in October. Looks like 2010 would fit the mold...not so much 2005 and 2000. 

[mitchnick]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

While this is true, I don't think that is the reason in this case....there is a seasonal element. No question cold and snow gets more hype in the winter. 

That's because liquid precip and >32F temps are a guarantee for much of the year (hence "dog bites man" weather) throughout the Conus, save the higher elevations. But I  know you know this!

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This probably ties into the rule concerning the higher amplitude MJO waves in October preceding colder winters that @bluewavehas referenced, though I know that is a more recent phenomenon. I do wonder if those seasons were higher amplitude in October. Looks like 2010 would fit the mold...not so much 2005 and 2000. 

To add:

-1983 doesn’t fit
-1985 strong 2nd half of Oct

-1989 was fairly stout last 1/3 of Oct

-2000 wasn’t strong but was stronger than avg

 

[anthonymm]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

So is winter over ?

I dont expect a big winter for the I95 south of Boston yea. Likely <20” , <10” also cant be ruled out. Btw euro kinda backed off the phase 8 idea already. Dec looks mild with the bulk of the cold falling into the plains and rockies. 

[MJO812]

Just now, anthonymm said:

I dont expect a big winter for the I95 south of Boston yea. Likely <20” , <10” also cant be ruled out. Btw euro kinda backed off the phase 8 idea already. Dec looks mild with the bulk of the cold falling into the plains and rockies. 

Why do you keep posting nonsense ?

[stadiumwave]

I am not sure why most are not hopeful for this winter when you simply look at -ENSO winters, with -QBO, & early strat warming (1981, 1983, 1995, 2000, 2017, 2021). On average, longer winters than the +QBO years by far. All those years had good DEC (although +QBO DEC were better) but JAN was the coldest on average in the east. FEB dealt with -EPO & SER combo but yielded to good blocky, colder MAR on average. FEB warmest anomaly wise.

 

[donsutherland1]

50 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

I dont expect a big winter for the I95 south of Boston yea. Likely <20” , <10” also cant be ruled out. Btw euro kinda backed off the phase 8 idea already. Dec looks mild with the bulk of the cold falling into the plains and rockies. 

A number of boundary conditions e.g., SSTAs, and teleconnections this year differ from those in recent La Niña winters that saw extremely low snowfall. None of this guarantees a “big” winter, but it does mean the range of plausible outcomes is perhaps broader than what we’ve seen the last few years.

[EasternLI]

Just think this is cute from the GEFS at 12z. After the PV discussion earlier. Now it shows up with a rather stout looking Scandinavian/Greenland dipole at the end of this run. Nice.

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, FPizz said:

True, but I also have seen the exact opposite posted from those social media posters who preach warmth only to have had it extremely muted as we moved closer in time.  Both sides play the same game and never admit to it.   Don and others here like to point out and scold the "cold/snow" posters, but there is an equal amount of warm biased posters as well that have large followings.  This past summer, we had 1 really hot spell with 100s that lasted 3 days, but tons of times i saw day 10 maps with more 100s posted and dumb write ups on them only for those days turn out to be 91 or 92. 

Agree to the bolded 100%

[GaWx]

Today’s Euro Weeklies update on the SPV compared to last run keeps the reversal (or near reversal) but it’s a fair bit stronger Dec-early Jan. Keep in mind that the prior two runs were already significantly stronger for that period:

Today’s EW mean zonal wind at 10 mb (11/21): significantly stronger than 11/18 run with, for example, 12/12 at +29 vs +11 on 11/18 run:

 

EW run from just 3 days ago (11/18): 12/12 had been at only +11

 

[michsnowfreak]

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The probabilistic maps from the latest CFSv2 monthly forecasts (just outside its skillful range) appear to be consistent with my baseline thinking (Upper Midwest/Great Lakes-focused cold that spreads eastward, above normal snowfall in the Upper Midwest-Great Lakes Region ( including Chicago to Toronto).

Finally, there continues to be no evidence of the kind of buildup of expansive severe cold in the Northern Hemisphere that would produce a severely cold December in the CONUS. This does not preclude the possibility of 1-2 Arctic outbreaks, but those are synoptic events that can't be forecast from this far out. But the path toward an extremely cold month is one that is statistically very unlikely and for which there is no evidence currently to support such claims.

Therefore, the Social Media chatter toward that end is pure speculation. The idea that December would rival 1983 is nonsensical. December 1983 (CONUS mean temperature of 25.48°) was the coldest December on record in the CONUS. The last December with a CONUS mean temperature below 30° was December 2009 (29.64°) and that outcome was made possible by extraordinary and persistent blocking in the WPO/EPO/AO domains. Both those frigid Decembers were preceded by Novembers with a much larger deep cold pool in the Northern Hemisphere. So, a logical question would be how such cold would materialize if the deep cold pool is small and there is no indication of 2009-style extreme blocking on the guidance (which can't reliably be forecast from this far out)? If the ingredients aren't present or can't yet be determined to be present, one can't credibly call for such outcomes, especially when they are rare statistical events. 

Finally, the odds are further tilted against such an outcome by the warming that has occurred in the Northern Hemisphere (especially the Arctic) since 1983. Below are the GISS Arctic region temperature anomalies since 1980.

This map is a great one to show why snowlovers in the Great Lakes always prefer nina over nina. 

[anthonymm]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

A number of boundary conditions e.g., SSTAs, and teleconnections this year differ from those in recent La Niña winters that saw extremely low snowfall. None of this guarantees a “big” winter, but it does mean the range of plausible outcomes is perhaps broader than what we’ve seen the last few years.

The winter is actively showing it's hand with that torch being forecasted first week of December. As many have posted about here, if you're on the east coast, warm Decembers in a nina are about the worst signal possible. 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

The winter is actively showing it's hand with that torch being forecasted first week of December. As many have posted about here, if you're on the east coast, warm Decembers in a nina are about the worst signal possible. 

Winter ? Its November 21. Dude stop posting please.

[bncho]

9 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

The winter is actively showing it's hand with that torch being forecasted first week of December. As many have posted about here, if you're on the east coast, warm Decembers in a nina are about the worst signal possible. 

I don't think the pattern will continue into the end of December. There's a colder signal for then. There's not much to worry about right now, especially for the NE folks.

[GaWx]

Today’s Euro Weeklies 2m temp changes vs yesterday aren’t good for the E US overall if you prefer cold:

Dec 1-7: warmer SE to Mid-Atlantic due to even stronger SE ridge:

 

Dec 8-14: ~unchanged

 

Dec 15-21: warmer SE/very slightly warmer NE

 

Dec 22-28: slightly warmer Mid-Atlantic/very slightly warmer SE:

 

Dec 29-Jan 4: warmer NE

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

I am not sure why most are not hopeful for this winter when you simply look at -ENSO winters, with -QBO, & early strat warming (1981, 1983, 1995, 2000, 2017, 2021). On average, longer winters than the +QBO years by far. All those years had good DEC (although +QBO DEC were better) but JAN was the coldest on average in the east. FEB dealt with -EPO & SER combo but yielded to good blocky, colder MAR on average. FEB warmest anomaly wise.

 

As per @GaWx research, 1983 did not have any stratospheric warmings in November or December. Furthermore, 1983 was a volcanic winter with a volcanic stratosphere; courtesy of a VEI-5 tropical eruption the year before in 1982. It was also a +QBO winter and a had a strongly +PDO 

[MJO812]

Where is the warmth ?

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Today’s Euro Weeklies 2m temp changes vs yesterday aren’t good for the E US overall if you prefer cold:

Dec 1-7: warmer SE to Mid-Atlantic due to even stronger SE ridge:

 

Dec 8-14: ~unchanged

 

Dec 15-21: warmer SE/very slightly warmer NE

 

Dec 22-28: slightly warmer Mid-Atlantic/very slightly warmer SE:

 

Dec 29-Jan 4: warmer NE

You will go crazy if you take every run verbatim . I wish the weeklies went back to weekly. 

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You will go crazy if you take every run verbatim . I wish the weeklies went back to weekly. 

Why? I’m not going crazy. We look at long range guidance ITT every day. This is mainly a long range thread. You just posted weeks 3-4, for example. I’d rather have the most up to date.

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Where is the warmth ?

You don’t see any warmth, Anthony?