2025-2026 ENSO

[FPizz]

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Everything warrants a "PREPARE NOW" headline....it's truly nauseating.  I've been reading that crap every week from November through March and have been averaging like half of my average seasonal snowfall each year.

Sounds like the end of the world people that go over the top with Global Warming as well that we read a new headline daily about how we are all going to die.  It goes both ways.  Both do equal damage.  It would be nice to come into this thread without the crappy forecasters being posted in here and also the end of the world crap not being posted in here.  By posting here you all are boosting them, lol. If you have a problem, ignore them or reply to them in their youtube or X comments.  We don't need the crap in here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Sounds like the end of the world people that go over the top with Global Warming as well that we read a new headline daily about how we are all going to die.  It goes both ways.  Both do equal damage.  It would be nice to come into this thread without the crappy forecasters being posted in here and also the end of the world crap not being posted in here.  By posting here you all are boosting them, lol. If you have a problem, ignore them or reply to them in their youtube or X comments.  We don't need the crap in here.

I see far more hyped winter videos than I do CC propaganda online.

[kazimirkai]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 The latest MJO forecast is a mix with GEFS not looking as good but the Euro still looking good:

11/14 GEFS further right with it hung up in middle of 6 rather than 6/7 border:

But Euro is still all systems go to 7/8:

11/14 Euro ~same as yesterday with progression into 7:

 

11/13 extended Euro (they run a day later) continues to look very nice with it again getting to the often cold in the E US phase 8 mid-Dec (can’t ask for better for then):

 

And yesterday’s extended GEFS also heads to phase 8 mid-Dec:

That's an improvement on the euro since yesterday, OLR mins closer to the dateline and all. Here's a semblance of what that transition might look like. Pretty hard to get those strong westerlies in the phase 8 map with la niña easterlies so we'll see how they contend. Id be surprised if the MJO stayes in 8 for long but we'll see if there's some constructive interference with easterly eq. rossby to prolong convection in the region a bit. That would be best cast scenario

[GaWx]

 The 12/13 extended GEFS/EPS are both headed for phase 8 mid-Dec. For those wondering how often E US cold has been associated with phase 8 in Dec (whether well outside, just outside, near, or inside the circle), here’s the breakdown of 3+ day long phase 8 periods in Baltimore as a representative (centrally located) E US city:

 

For 3+ day long phase 8 (includes inside circle): 23 periods (* La Niña)

12/20-22/1974: +1*

12/19-31/1975: -4*

12/14-17/1976: -2

12/10-15/1977: -6

12/16-18/1979: -5

12/26-28/1981: -2

12/8-10/1982: -6

12/19-23/1986: -3

12/2-6/1988: +1*

12/1-4/1989: -9

12/9-18/1989: -16

12/2-4/1990: +6

12/1-7/1991: +1

12/9-14/1991: +8

12/9-12/1992: 0

12/20-25/1995: -8*

12/15-17/2000: 0*

12/21-25/2001: -1

12/5-9/2002: -15

12/1-3/2007: -4*

12/6-9/2009: -4

12/20-22/2009: -7

12/21-24/2017: +5*

———

 Before analyzing the temperatures, note how the frequency of 3+ day long Dec phase 8 periods has plunged since 2009:

-During 1974-2009, there were 22 three+ day long phase 8s through the 36 Decs or a frequency of 0.61/Dec.

-But during 2010-2024, there was only ONE 3+ day long period or a mere 0.07/Dec, which is a minuscule 1/9 as often as that for 1974-2008!

-The longest drought during 1974-2009 was a mere 4 Decs. But during 2010-24, there have been two 7 Dec droughts!@bluewave

-So, based on this, although I’m hoping the latest extended EPS/GEFS are correct in projecting a 3++ day long phase 8 this Dec, I’m taking it with a grain for now.

——————

 Now to analyze the Baltimore temps for the 23 three+ day Dec phase 8 periods 1974-2024:

-# of periods: MB 4 (17%), B 10 (43%), NN 6 (26%), A 2 (9%), MA 1 (4%)

 -So, there have been nearly 5 times as many B/MB periods as A/MA periods!

-The average daily anomaly was -4 over the 112 days.

 
@donsutherland1

[MJO812]

Mike Masco

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Mike Masco

An “energized southern branch” (STJ) in a La Niña with a -PMM? Huh?

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

An “energized southern branch” (STJ) in a La Niña with a -PMM? Huh?

Yea thats a little weird.

[SnowGoose69]

The good news is that GEFS/GEPS have kind of been destroying the EPS the last 4-6 winters for the most part with the post D10 evolutions involving the pattern due to them seeming to handle PAC issues better.  Both of those show markedly faster transitions for those in the E in late Nov than the EPS which is going much more -PNA and SE ridge.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Mike Masco

That to me looks like a pattern more conducive to overrunning, as any major phasing attempt(s) is/are likely to be sheared out by a compressed field.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That to me looks like a pattern more conducive to overrunning, as any major phasing attempt(s) is/are likely to be sheared out by a compressed field.

Definitely with an negative epo pattern 

[stadiumwave]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I see far more hyped winter videos than I do CC propaganda online.

 

Temporarily that has relaxed. But when you have politicians start saying the world will end in 12 years, just 4 years ago, that usually generates the crazies. 

[leo2000]

I heard from here the cold air will bleed east. Question is, is this a Siberian event? or North Atlantic event type SSW. As the Siberian event lasts longer the models seem to indicate that it's an Siberian event. I am rather confuse though as the EPS model went from 81 percent predicting a major SSW down to 56 percent last night. This is from Ben Noll on X.

@BenNollWeather

 

A sudden stratospheric warming event is forecast to peak around Nov. 25. This will probably disrupt the polar vortex, with Arctic air initially plunging into the west-central United States during late November, accentuating the stormy weather pattern headed for this region.

https://x.com/i/status/1989324943415234596

Just two months after a rare stratospheric warming event disrupted the polar vortex above Antarctica, one is poised to do the same above the Arctic before the end of November. Watch the Southern Hemisphere's vortex go from perfectly round to ragged.

https://x.com/i/status/1989347337932607567

[MJO812]

[BlizzardWx]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I was coming on here to mention this. It's showing up in the GEFS mean too. 

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That to me looks like a pattern more conducive to overrunning, as any major phasing attempt(s) is/are likely to be sheared out by a compressed field.

I agree. He’s trying to hype it into a KU coastal storm pattern up the east coast. I don’t know what in the heck he’s looking at 

[GaWx]

 Today’s Euro Weeklies:

1. SPV: though there’s still a decent % with a reversal on 11/25, there actually was a notable drop in the % of SSWs on 11/25 in exchange for an increase in the % for that to be ~11/27-8: @MJO812@BlizzardWx

Yesterday’s:

2. Today’s E US 2m temps are similar to yesterday’s run for Dec with a strong SE ridge early (mild again in the SE to lower Mid-Atlantic) that again slowly weakens through mid-Dec:

12/1-7:

 

12/8-14:

 

12/15-21: (12/22-28 similar)

 But yesterday’s extended EPS/GEFS were forecasting the MJO on 12/11-14 to reach phase 8, which is about the coldest phase on avg in the E US in Dec. with 60%/80% of them having been cold in Baltimore/RDU, for examples. Also, should the SSWE actually occur, the lagged cold may also start ~mid-Dec. So, should it actually get to phase 8 and the SSW occur in late Nov, I’d be looking for a very good chance for 12/15-21 and 12/22-28 to turn much colder in the E US on later runs as we get closer. That’s still a month out, an eternity for model accuracy and the ability for big changes to be seen.

 

*Edit: In semi-windshield washer form, the 12Z EPS did turn back a bit colder in the SE US the last few days of the run vs the 0Z run due to a weaker SE ridge though it doesn’t look nearly as good to me as yesterday’s 12Z. Regardless, it is well after the end of the 2 week EPS that has the best prospects for cold for the 2 reasons I gave above. Patience would be helpful.

[leo2000]

The Climate Prediction Center is also showing what the Euro Weeklies is showing with the cold air and above precip and a SE ridge down to the south. 

 

 

[bncho]

1 hour ago, leo2000 said:

The Climate Prediction Center is also showing what the Euro Weeklies is showing with the cold air and above precip and a SE ridge down to the south. 

 

 

signals an active storm track. pretty good look for NE, and maybe even the MA

[George001]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

signals an active storm track. pretty good look for NE, and maybe even the MA

Yeah looks like a solid gradient pattern is coming

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I would be stunned to see that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah looks like a solid gradient pattern is coming

Yea, I had, 1970, 2007 and 2008 as December analogs.